I think we are need a new model.

[sheshe2]

Two days ago I read we will have 60K deaths by August, according to the model. By todays count 8 weeks in we are closing in on 47K. August is 16 weeks away. We have at least 7 states that are, or aiming for the most essential business ever to reopen early! Beauty Parlors. Tattoo Parlors. Nail Salons. Bowling allies? Of course gyms as well.

Notice these states are sending out the poorest of the poor to test the waters. Ya know, dip your toe in and see how that water feels.

Oh, lest we forget the dimwit Mayor in Vegas. She wants the casinos and restaurants open for business. She has no clue how to open them safely, she said that is not her job, yet she said her constituents are dying to get back to their jobs. Dying after they get back to their jobs is more likely. She went on to say we are not China! Our hotels and casinos are well kept and pristine.

Tis why we need a new model. We will be at the least 100K by August.

[drray23]

1. The model is correct. Its the input conditions that changed.

this 60k was assuming that all states would quarantine and do it correctly. Since there are so many who aren't, the numbers will go up.

[FreeState]

2. Not according to many epidemiologists

“A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

[sheshe2]

3. Welp.

That model needs updating. Also. IMHO it was to low in the first place.

We have numbers rising dramatically and we are finding the death count is NOT being accurately reported.

[Squinch]

4. The model was NEVER even close. We will be above 60K BEFORE the quarantines end.

The model is crap.

[sheshe2]

6. "The model was NEVER even close."

They never planned it to be. They lied.

At least Birxie is not wearing her satin prom queen dresses anymore. She is wearing basic black to pretend to show she gives one shit to the tens of thousands that have died.

I can't even.

[Eko]

5. I think we will be at 100k dead.

Last edited Thu Apr 23, 2020, 12:05 AM - Edit history (1)

Sometime in the week of May 10th.

[Lord Ludd]

7. ??? Did you mean May 10th? nt

[Eko]

9. Yes, lol.

Thanks for pointing that out.
Eko.

[Polybius]

11. May 10th is 17 days away

We're at 48,030 deaths right now, so we would need to average roughly 3,060 deaths per day. I don't think we will be that bad, but more than likely we'll be at 80,000+, which is still horrific.

[Eko]

13. I did say in the week of may 10th.

So that is 17-23 days away.

[Polybius]

19. Oh I didn't see that part

I had read it as May 10th period, but I see it now that you said the week of.

[Eko]

14. 12 out of 17 of the top populous cities in America

are in GOP states. Together they have a population of 16,390,331 vs New York with 8,398,748. Most of them if not all are relaxing their stay at home guidelines. I expect to see an explosion in infected in those cities and with the other cities still adding while coming down I think 100,000 dead total sometime in that week is a good bet.

[MerryBlooms]

8. Without proper testing, I don't know how any of these

models can be trusted. I read that some states are just now taking into account folks who died at home... but states still aren't able to test post mortem, they're overrun, and their staff are falling ill. trump defunded drive-thru testing, so states don't have money to continue, have shut them down. Our numbers are probably 5-10x's higher than reported. You still have deaths attributed to anything but corona/covid, because there's a lack of testing, and lack of will.

The US is the textbook example of what NOT to do in a pandemic... So, we got that going for us.

[Steelrolled]

10. I agree that the pandemic is complex and we simply don't understand it,

while we are living in it. It is like the "fog of war". So our models are too simple, and won't give good predictions.

One thing to keep in mind is that the key to reducing deaths in the US is to reduce deaths in several hard-hit states, like NY, NJ, MI, and MA. There are many states whose total deaths are a fraction of the daily count in hard-hit states.

[sheshe2]

12. And they are the bluest states that trump refuses to help.

He seized our PPE in MA. Our GOP Gov. Baker ordered a huge shipment to supply our hospitals. Fema/Feds/ Jared? ordered our shipments seized.

[Volaris]

15. I just posted the same thoughts in another thread. If pResident Numpty and...

...his cadre of numpty governors dont lock this shit down keep it way, we will hit 100k by July 4th.

[GulfCoast66]

16. We had 3000 deaths yesterday. Unless you think that is about to fall quickly

We will be well over 100000 by June 1st.

[Volaris]

17. That's why I think the predictions of 60k by August are way off.