Stephen Fry says Sweden's streets are 70% less busy and it's not dodging economic fallout

[Quixote1818]

and yet the virus is killing many times as many people as the neighboring countries. Seems to me this is a double failure. They aren't gaining much financially and are killing a lot more people.

[BigmanPigman]

1. Their number of new cases seems to be all over the place,

just like the number of deaths. I check out Worldometer and they have graphs of each country. Sweden's is the strangest I have seen. The spikes are all over the place, super high then the next week almost zero then back up again the next week reaching a new high....very odd.

The country with the second highest amount of new cases after the US is Russia (over 6,000 yesterday). That is worse than the UK (4,000+) and Brazil z(3,000+).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. One thing to notice with that chart

is that even though right now this country has the largest total number of cases, in no small part because we are the third most populous country in the world, we do not have the largest number of cases per million population. Spain, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, and Ireland all have more cases per million.

I will also add that I cannot believe that India has as few cases as they seem to be reporting. And there seems to be reason to think that China has vastly under-reported its cases.

For all the flaws in the reporting of cases in this country, we are probably doing a better job than a lot of other countries, including at least some first world countries. However, we all need to be aware that we are still in the early stages of this pandemic, and even if it had been handled better, we'd still have a lot of uncertainty everywhere as to the numbers of those infected, those died, and so on. We are still learning a lot of basic things about this virus.

[Crunchy Frog]

11. If you look at that chart, India is doing almost no testing.

It's impossible to know what their real numbers are.

[Hortensis]

15. I read that India's started sending out field workers surveying and

doing contact tracing when cases are identified.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

33. A lot of people who have been designated as

having died of this, or even to have had it, have simply been judged on symptoms without testing. While testing is very important, it's not the only way to figure out if someone has this.

Heck, I wonder if the official flu statistics are only from those who have been tested. A lot of people simply self-diagnose with flu and stay home.

I just think that this would spread incredibly fast in in India, and that there would be noticeably number of people sick and dying. More so than the 22,500 who die every day in the first place.

Just looking at excess deaths over the normal number is a decent rough count. Not perfect by any means, but a good start.

[Blue_true]

6. I forget it's exact population at the moment, but Russia is something like

12-20 times larger than Sweden. The U.K. is around 6-7 times larger, Brazil even larger than the UK.

One has to look at Sweden's infections per capital, in that, it is around ten times worse than it's immediate Nordic neighbors.

[BigmanPigman]

9. I always look at the "deaths per 1 million"

for the so called "real" numbers. The US is at 167, UK is 305, Russia is 5 and Brazil is 20. Of the Nordic countries Sweden is still tons higher than its neighbors...217, meanwhile Denmark is 73, Norway is 37 and Finland is 34.

Since we can't trust countries, even/especially our own I guess we won't know the real numbers for years (or ever in some cases).

[Dem2]

32. One could reputably report that "Sweden is suffering 35% more deaths per-capita"

...than the US.

They just reported 80 deaths today alone, which upped the difference from 30 to 35%. Yeesh.

[blitzen]

2. Sweden: 217 deaths per million; UK, 305 deaths per million; Belgium, 619 deaths per million...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Quixote1818]

4. USA 167 per million, Norway 37 death's per million. They are doing worse than us. nt

[blitzen]

10. We've been rising up that chart quickly, I'm pretty sure we'll pass Sweden. n/t

[cstanleytech]

12. Well we do have a larger population so that is only logical.

[Demovictory9]

13. the "per million count" accounts for differences in population

[cstanleytech]

30. Sorry I should have said a larger population of idiots with one

in the office of President.

[Hortensis]

18. Not in deaths per capita. Sweden's shockingly high,

U.S. much lower. I did read that their statistics do include some people, like in nursing homes and foreign visitors, who aren't counted in all nations' statistics. They are reportedly in ours, however.

[blitzen]

24. They have fewer deaths per capita than the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, the . . .

Netherlands. We are rapidly catching up to Sweden.

On the other hand, their deaths per capita are way, way higher than Demark, Norway, Finland, and Iceland.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Hortensis]

31. No we're not, and why go around saying such things?

Better to knock wood while we wait to see how much "reopening" increases the death rate. Note, though, that it's unlikely to result in exceeding hospital capacity, so, above all, people who seek care will be able to get it. Retired people are going to remain in hiding, those who can will continue, or finally be able to start, to work from home; some factories will remain closed, and worker protections have been instituted that weren't in place before. We're not in March any more.

Btw, with new information, we recently gave our figures a steep rise by adding past deaths from other causes that are now believed probably caused by coronavirus, such as death from heart attack in someone with heart disease while exhibiting symptomatology compatible with COVID-19 infection. Not all countries are doing this.

Here's another picture of our current situation from Johns Hopkins. Sweden's not on this because it's the "top 10" by total deaths. Figures per 100,000 on the right.



Have a nice day.

[DrToast]

36. Sweden has been rising up that chart at a much faster rate.

[blitzen]

38. No, I've been watching this closely for a week. We have been closing the gap...

with Sweden. A week ago we were in the 120's per million and they were around 200.

[DrToast]

42. You are mistaken

Here's the figures from one week ago.

USA Deaths per 1M pop: 128
Sweden Deaths per 1M pop: 156

Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20200420231810/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Today:
USA Deaths per 1M pop: 170
Sweden Deaths per 1M pop: 225

Change in 1 week:
USA: 128 to 170 = 32.8% increase
Sweden: 156 to 225 = 44.2% increase

[Blue_true]

3. How many people want to play Russian roulette?

So little is known about how, and who covid19 kills that going in public without some protection is fallacy. Yes, sicker older people are dying at a higher rate, but that routinely happens with many causes of death.

What hasn't been explained is why one healthy young person dies from covid19 while a second may hardly notice having being infected. Someone pointed out that maybe the difference is the viral load that a person takes upon infection, or the person that dues taking several viral loads versus the one that lives taking a single minor viral load. Until that type of issue is better understood, going into public without practicing safe distancing and wearing a mask and safety glasses to reduce intake of a viral load is essentially playing Russian roulette.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. I honestly suspect that there may well be a lot more underlying health issues

in those young people than we know about. It's really hard to know, since we aren't going to learn the details of anyone's health history. But it's shocking to realize how many people do have underlying health issues, including chronic diseases of various kinds, genetic defects of one sort or another. An awful lot of people are alive today that would have died a hundred years ago.

Heck, I'm one of those in that both of my sons were born by emergency C-section. The first because I had a complete placenta previa, meaning the placenta totally blocked my cervix. Before modern surgery I would have bled to death before the baby could have been born. The second time I had a placental abruption, meaning the placenta was pulling away from the uterine wall, and again, in an earlier era I would have bled to death before the baby could have been born. Obviously, I'm very grateful to modern medicine that I and my two sons could live. And that's not something that made any difference to their survival, health, or well-being once they were born. Other kinds of conditions are different.

I'm not saying we shouldn't do cesareans on women like me, or that we shouldn't do any of the many life-saving things we currently do. But there is a price to be paid, and it may be that Covid-19 is the payback.

Here's something else that may be influencing this. Most people don't get enough sleep. And studies have shown that lack of sleep has a clear, negative impact on the immune system. So someone who seems healthy, but is skating by on minimal sleep may well get a whole lot sicker from this than the person who regularly gets sufficient shut-eye. I'm convinced that among the reasons I'm as incredibly healthy as I am is that most of my life I've gotten enough sleep.

[Blue_true]

8. Good points on how medical profile and lack of sleep can impact this.

Things are being learned about how covid19 affects the body that are downright scary, like it damages the heart, liver and kidneys in addition to the lungs, even in mildly sick people it can do damage that eventually shortens a lifespan. And the scary stuff that is being found out about it causing pretty dramatic blood clotting, who in their right mind would risk contracting that thing?

[LeftInTX]

22. Man that is some bad luck with two pregnancies!

Thank God for modern medicine.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

34. Yes, it was bad luck.

And while there's a part of me that feels somewhat guilty for passing on what may be bad pregnancy genes, I'm very glad to be alive and have gotten two wonderful sons out of the deal. For reasons that aren't important here, neither one is likely to reproduce, so if I did have bad pregnancy genes, they're going nowhere.

[LeftInTX]

39. I don't think it's genes, the causes are unknown

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

45. You are right. It probably wasn't at all genetic,

just a simple case of bad luck. And I want to stress that because of modern medicine, things went very well in the end. Plus, I had an amazingly fast recovery from the surgery both times. Nurses at each hospital remarked they'd never seen anyone bounce back from a c-section so quickly.

[Celerity]

40. In the entire country, we've had 13 people under 40yo die, 5 of those were under 30, a zero under 20

95% of COVID-19 deaths here have been 60yo and up, 87% have been 70yo and up. Plus we have never been in lockdown, almost all schools under high school level open the whole time.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

[Blue_true]

46. Swedes are in considerably better physical shape than Americans.

I suspect that we will likely have bad results given the prevalence of obesity here in the USA, particularly in the South.

I know that in my case, I will continue to wear a mask and limit my excursions into public places as much as possible. Although I am considerably older than your 24 years, I am fit and not obese and I don't have any pre-existing, but still, I believe that it is foolish to take unnecessary chances because scientists really don't understand this thing enough yet to allow people to make informed choices other than the obvious ones (keep distance, wash hands). The virus seems to have considerable adaptability to the conditions that it end up in, as seen by it mutating to form at least one European strain after being brought from China. Is it possible that over a Summer the thing mutates from a deadly virus to a super deadly virus that kills across the spectrum, the 1918 Pandemic virus did almost exactly that, initially killing only the sick and old, but coming back in the second wave killing across all age groups and health statuses.

You seem to be a smart, well read person, so I am sure that you are assessing your risk level fully. But again, there is just so much that is not known about covid19 and what it is capable of.

[Celerity]

47. we will get the results of our tests tomorrow, and take it from there

[Demovictory9]

14. just the lack of tourism alone, travel from other countries must account for significant percentage

No country could dodge this world wide crisis completely.

[Salviati]

16. The choice was never between economic damage or a body count...

It was between economic damage or economic damage and a body count.

[sandensea]

17. Well said.

Leaders that let their chambers of commerce dictate public health policy, end up with ruined public heath - and commerce.

[Hortensis]

19. Sweden's plan is to develop herd immunity quickly,

but so far it's not established that recovered patients develop immunity against subsequent infections. Still to be determined. A lot of pathogens do not confer immunity.

Many post-illness people are showing presence of antibodies, but

"We don't know even if the antibodies are protective, what degree of protection they provide, so it could be complete, it could be partial, or how long the antibodies last," Hayden added, "We know that antibody responses wane over time."

Reportedly, although there's widespread support among Swedes, a lot are self isolating anyway.

[SunSeeker]

20. Plus, 50% od Swedes live alone, the highest percentage of any country.

The Swedes naturally are social distancing. But they're still in trouble. They haven't closed restaurants and bars, nor elementary schools.

[Hortensis]

21. Interesting. Definitely natural distancing.

[LeftInTX]

25. They think that's why Florida's rates have been low, despite the spring break stuff

Texas' rates are low and there is lots of distancing here too. Most everyone drives. (Public transportation is generally only used by a limited population)

Many people live in single family homes. Apartments are almost all walk ups. (very few elevator and high rise units etc..)

In San Antonio, we don't have much manufacturing etc. We really don't..our economy is mostly service. The occupations with the most exposure to other people are health care, retail and the county jail.

[Hortensis]

27. Right. We're in Florida right now. Land's inexpensive

off the coasts, and single-story detached homes are the norm. Residential high rises needing elevators are almost exclusively on the coasts, and many of those units are occupied only in the vacation months, which this year were cut short as many went home early.

Another reason is the higher number of older people down here, most retired, who reacted to the direct, unambiguous threat to themselves with self isolation before governments starting calling for it. A significant portion of the population who are able to continue to hide from death in relatively secure comfort, unlike all those at lesser but real risk from the virus who can't sustain without working.

[uponit7771]

49. Florida is only testing 10 per 1k

[Celerity]

48. lol

[SunSeeker]

51. LOL. So true.

[LeftInTX]

23. Herd immunity probably ended the 1918 flu pandemic

In San Antonio we were closed for 24 days. Then we were open for a month. Then we closed for 2 weeks. Then it was pretty much over. They think 50 percent of the population had the flu.

[SunSeeker]

26. Sweden is hoping for herd immunity in the Stockholm area in May. We'll see.

From an article today:

How Close Is Sweden to Herd Immunity From the Coronavirus?

Sweden is not doing well. By April 22, its mortality rates from COVID-19 were the tenth highest in the world, with 17.3 deaths per 100,000. By comparison, its neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland ranked 17th, 22nd and 31st, with 6.4, 3.4 and 2.6 deaths per 100,000.

How close Sweden is to herd immunity is unknown, because random seroprevalence testing, which requires testing for both the virus and antibodies (to detect past infection), has not yet been undertaken nationwide, although plans are afoot. Nevertheless, the national public health agency, Folkhälsomyndigheten, and Swedish military sampled 738 Stockholmers and found that 2.5% were infected between March 26 and April 3 with SARS-CoV-2.Assuming a case fatality rate of ~0.36% and combining this with confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Sweden (2,021 on April 23), one can very crudely estimate the total number infected through mid-April – by no means a surrogate for expert modelling or direct testing. Nevertheless, this equates to 561,389 infections nationwide (~5.5% of the total population).

Given more than half the deaths have so far occurred in Stockholm (1,128 as of April 23), yet only ~10% of the population lives there, about a third of the population in Sweden’s capital may have been infected by mid-April. This is compatible with the early-May estimates reported for Stockholm by Folkhälsomyndigheten.

It is impossible to know for sure how many people have had COVID-19 – in Sweden and most other countries. But if the simulations conducted in Sweden are correct, and post-infection immunity is achieved in most people, we should soon expect infections and deaths in Stockholm to drop substantially in the coming weeks.
https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/04/27/how_close_is_sweden_to_herd_immunity_from_the_coronavirus_111374.html

[ProfessorGAC]

28. A Lot Of This Is Based Upon The Flawed Premise...

...that having several million sick & several hundred thousand dead would not negatively affect the economy.
Shut down = economic damage. Not shutting down = no economic impact!
An intellectually lazy comparison.
Especially true of these folks that consider 5 to 8 million dead acceptable.
The economy is 70% consumer spending. If 2% of the population dies, the economy has 1.4% less activity.
And, that doesn't count the tens of millions scared to go about life as people are dropping dead everywhere.
The idea that this approach is better for the economy is foolish.
It's just spreads the damage over a modestly longer time line.

[DrToast]

35. Exactly

Here is Las Vegas, hotels were shutting down and doing layoffs even BEFORE the Governor instituted stay at home orders.

[crickets]

37. Good points.

You'd think the moneybags Repub party would have some sort of economist explaining this to TPTB, but apparently not.

[ProfessorGAC]

43. They Hire Economists That...

...adhere to Austrian orthodoxy.
Geez, Ludlow's been an advisor to Rs for decades, and my dog could build an econometric model better than Ludlow!
There are very few conservative economists that can move away from the libertarian model.

[uponit7771]

50. "... modestly longer time line..." I watch CNBC, these people literally think CV19 will just go ...

... away because they have these con men non doctors on talking about starting the economy without exposing their famalies first.

[ProfessorGAC]

52. Opening Fast Will Result In a 2nd Wave...

...upon the economy.

[uponit7771]

53. +1, there are so many historic and current evidence to this. Also, what does "open up" the economy

... mean these days other than opening mass venues and some manufacturing?

Bet there are lawyers chopping at the it to sue Boeing right now for endangering their employees without cause by not getting them tested at want on a regular basis.

[ProfessorGAC]

54. See My OP

Just minutes old. An Illinois state rep sued the state to reopen.

[Mike 03]

29. Kick for morning crowd

[Celerity]

41. I would love to know where he got that number, as I sure do not see it, & obviously there's economic

impact, but nothing like many other nations in the EU.

87% of the COVID-19 deaths here have been 70yo and up, 95% 60yo and up. The elderly homes were hit early and hard, as were elderly folk in the immigrant/refugee suburbs around Stockholm, Göteborg, and Malmö, as those communities do not practice social distancing well and often live many to a flat.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213347744

We have had a total of 13 COVID-19 deaths from people under 40 years of age, zero from under 20 years of age. See that link above for more detail, and in my relies as well in that thread, including how we count and test, especially for lethal outcomes.


Here are the latest daily stats.

[muriel_volestrangler]

44. His number looks wrong - The Guardian has congestion data for various cities, including Stockholm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/apr/27/the-traffic-data-that-shows-the-road-into-and-out-of-covid-19-lockdown

Stockholm did have some of a decrease in congestion, but weekday figures never got as low as a normal weekend, and they've been climbing back up to near normal. Copenhagen went down to weekend levels all through the week, and has only come back up a little; Milan, Rome, Paris and London are way below any normal weekend level.