U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19

[Dennis Donovan]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/



An analysis of federal data for the first time estimates excess deaths -- the number beyond what would normally be expected -- during that period.

By Emma Brown, Andrew Ba Tran, Beth Reinhard and Monica Ulmanu

April 27 at 11:11 AM

In the early weeks of the coronavirus epidemic, the United States recorded an estimated 15,400 excess deaths, nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to covid-19 at the time, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.

The excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.

The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents.

But in any pandemic, higher-than-normal mortality is a starting point for scientists seeking to understand the full impact of the disease.

</snip>

[dewsgirl]

1. K and R

[ffr]

2. All about the time conservative tRump cut off testing to states

Covid-19 deaths aren't Covid-19 deaths without a pre-test of a live individual. Brilliant plan by republicans to hide their incompetent response to the pandemic with a cover-up.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. But the statistics of incremental deaths over the norm must still be explained

They didn't just hop in on a cold winter or a bad flu season or vehicular homicides

[ffr]

8. I just did. They're Covid-19, but not listed as such by policy.

Only deaths from patients tested positive for Covid-19 and die are listed as dying from Covid-19. Not even after death are they tested.

Without testing, you get this unusual spike coinciding with something else, perhaps like a global pandemic that the republicans and this Impeach pResident want to cover up.

[Igel]

16. They are added to the totals,

even if they're not tested, under CDC guidelines.

Not all states are necessarily reporting them as they should, but some have gone back through records to adjust their totals.

Two for two.

[ffr]

21. Good to know, but that's news to me. Specifically that only Covid+ patients were counted

I haven't read anything to date that has said otherwise. In fact, I believe NY was one of the first states to go back to adjust their totals.

What's two for two?

[Igel]

15. Post-mortem tests have been conducted.

And they do get added to the totals.

[ffr]

22. News to me.

Not saying it isn't the fact, just saying that's outside what I've seen reported in the news.

[SoonerPride]

3. I hope they revisit this graph after May.

I suspect the difference between reported deaths and excess deaths above the mean will be even larger.

[crickets]

4. K&R for visibility.

[LudwigPastorius]

6. "I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double..."

-Trump, March 6th, 2020

Of course, he was talking about bringing passengers off a cruise ship, but the principal sentiment is there.

Anyone who doesn't believe that Trump would deliberately do everything he could to suppress the testing and reporting of the full extent of the infection rate in the U.S. is kidding themselves.

[Wounded Bear]

7. So, basically, it's worse than we thought...

to no one's surprise.

[rickyhall]

9. I read today's number of deaths attributed to C19 is over 55,000, add 15,000 & we have over 70,000.

Yup, Trump, you win again. That's the largest number I seen so far. Can we call you a mass murderer yet?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Yes. Because he acted like nothing big was wrong, many

went on spring vacations, Mardi Gras, spring break...only to spread the virus and cause death.

In addition, in my mind, he stands guilty for not wearing a mask, minimizing the threat to his followers. Acting like it wasn't macho yo protect yourself and others. This cavalier display aalso led to spread and death. And he continues to foment unrest with his followers.

[RVN VET71]

13. What happened to the people who watched Kitty Genovese being murdered

and did nothing? I know that there probably was insufficient evidence to arrest any of them, but if there were, would they have been indicted for murder for not doing anything?

Of course Trump is not just not doing anything. He's actively standing in the way of things getting done so, yeah, I guess he would be indicted if he weren't King, but for obstruction not murder. But not until he leaves the throne. His supporters would bleed tears of anger and dismay, but the survivors of between 55,000 and 70,000 Americans (so far) would want to sit on the jury.

[Igel]

20. Not many at all.

And none saw it from start to finish. Even those who saw part of it didn't know how it ended and most had no idea what was going on.

The original report was falsified. And since we love believing the worst about others, it precisely met with what we believed (even if we gasped and said, "Who'd have thought it!&quot .

At once it became an urban legend. This was sort of contrarian news a number of years ago. On the other hand, it was well-founded contrarian news. Newspapers do *not* have your interests at heart.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Kitty_Genovese#Accuracy_of_original_reports

[not fooled]

11. Every mention of the "official" death count

needs to be followed by a disclaimer citing evidence such as this that the actual number is much bigger.

[NBachers]

12. trump and every single repuke: "Thousands of dead Americans? Who cares?"

[RVN VET71]

14. Yep: "Everybody dies, after all."

And, of course the economy (read: the 1%) needs to get up and running again. There are yachts to be purchased!

[hunter]

17. This isn't models, speculation or hand waving. It's a count of the total dead from all causes.

These statistics make it clear this virus is very dangerous.

[Hekate]

18. I was wondering when someone would get around to "excess deaths." Refusing to provide tests...

...can only hide the truth for so long.

Thanks, Dennis.

[LizBeth]

23. +1. They found two deaths a couple weeks prior to the "official" first death.

[LeftInTX]

19. K and R!!!

Too bad this data is a bit delayed.

[Dem2]

24. This.

We've all been waiting for these statistics to come out and adding weight to the other side of the cases/deaths equation.

We'll have a pretty good idea of the mortality rate of this pandemic in a year or two (estimates sooner.)

[scipan]

25. Preprint paper:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431v1

It has a table showing all states, ordered by excess deaths for pneumonia and influenza. I'm interested in Florida because their numbers seem way too low, but it's about in the middle of the pack. I think it just hasn't hit its peak yet, and desantis is trying to hide the truth.

[Blue Owl]

26. It's called the Trump Bump

n/t

[nitpicker]

27. There COULD be genuine confusion about what to put as THE cause of death

Let's say a heart disease patient comes in with CV, gets pneumonia, and is put on a ventilator. Then the kidneys mess up and dialysis can't save the day.

What cause is listed? Organ failure? Pneumonia? CV? Heart disease? (the last maybe not, but...)

There may also be reluctance to formally identify deaths as being due to CV, for various reasons.

Edit: I'm somewhat suspicious of some states' apparently low death to case ratio. Some states are having low rates because a lot of younger workers are getting sick in meat processing plants, and other states had prison outbreaks. BUT Utah?? Admittedly a majority-Caucasian state, known for eschewing ABC (alcohol, baccy, caffeine), but a death rate hovering around 1% suggests some are finding other things to list as the primary cause of death.

[LeftInTX]

28. CV will be the cause, along with the others

As long as the person tested positive for CV

If you do genealogy, you will see death certificates and they usually list multiple conditions. I've seen them for my great grandparents. Also in genealogy groups people will share death certificates and they will ask, "What did they die of?" (Lots of times the doctor's handwriting is poor and some people are really good at reading those certificates!) Many times there are two or more conditions. All of these death certificates are usually at least 60 years old.