QUESTION: How many weeks can we stay at 20% unemployment before a depression is baked in?

[uponit7771]

QUESTION: How many weeks can we stay at 20% unemployment before a depression is baked in?

Been viewing CNBC, the MAGA cluckers and suckers don't mind going on that program and get face smashed with some facts for money and their whole spiel has been open up before the damage gets permanent or longer lasting then it should be.

I looks like the damage so far is 2 fold;

1. Even if a perfect cure were found right now it would take minimum 3 months for people to trust it and get it distributed.

2. It would take people 3 months to sift back into jobs that are willing to even pay 20% more to come to them.

Looks Putin's Whore has already done minimum 6 months of economy damage right now even if everything got better tommorrow.

How do these guys not get that a deep recession is already here?

thx in advance

[SoonerPride]

1. We are in a depression now

The unemployment is widespread and global.

The depression is already here.

[uponit7771]

3. "widespread and global.

... so far the DOW and S&P are climbing based on tech stocks and a long sucker rally.

Right now China's government is literally paying citizens to go out and shop, look up China Vouchers ... they're not reporting on the success yet

[SoonerPride]

5. I know. The climb in the DOW is short lived for sure

Because unemployed people don't buy things.

And no one will travel so all tourism related industry and regions dependent on tourism aren't coming back to being profitable anytime soon.

The global nature of this means no one is coming here and no one here is going around the globe.

Demand and commerce will fall off precipitously worldwide for the foreseeable future.

[uponit7771]

10. Part of my comment got cut off. Your mentiioning of global is what these analyst are leaving

... off in their assessments.

For some reason US business's think this thing is over in 2 months and we're back to some level of close to pre March normal.

[Voltaire2]

4. A 15-35% decline in GDP is not only a depression, it is a deep depression.

So yeah. We are there.

[uponit7771]

9. Whoa ... I thought it was just 4 quarters of decline. Yeah, 20% of US economy was large venue ...

... and places were social distancing doesn't work.

Would that be fair?

tia

[Shermann]

2. This is the right question

They initially said that this isn't a "structural problem" like 2008. But it certainly can become structural. I'm not an economist, but this came hard and fast after a really great run for stocks. So people are likely leveraged pretty deep. So at some point this is going to hit the banks that lent out all that money.

The Dow is only down 18% from its highs in February as of today. There was a 16% correction in 2018 that wasn't really due to anything specific, and we recovered in a few months. So things are nearly as good as in the depths of the 2018 correction?

[SoonerPride]

6. It will take a Q or two of earnings reports to be posted before the damage is apparent

As corporate balance sheets bleed cash the Dow will plummet.

It is going to be catastrophic.

[uponit7771]

7. +1, you wouldn't believe there are still people listening to the idiots who said this was not

... structural.

Watch the June contract, it'll go negative too cause oil companies aren't capping enough wells.

Its structural until a vaccine or a federal level high throughput (not just capacity) testing, tracing and isolation campaign in put into place per county. Then the consumer has to be given money to spend, deflation is a mutha

[gibraltar72]

8. Trumpcession.

[uponit7771]

11. +1

[judeling]

12. It won't be a depression

The central banks are injecting to much liquidity into the system. That and a Ton of Fiscal stimulus. However it will be tough and by November feel even worse than now as we are all being optimistic that this will pass quickly.

But simple things are going to start looming large. Just how do you use elevators for example.

We were in a manufacturing recession before this happened. Our economy is consumer driven but last year was excessively so. Without capex ad manufacturing activity, we are likely to take a bi hit for the next two years. There will be some snap back but not enough and it will start to sink in that it will be a long time coming out.

[uponit7771]

14. Unnnn, large and close venue related business's are 20% of US economy no? Even if

... we had a vaccine tomorrow it would take 3 months to distribute and another 3 months for the wider public to trust it etc.

It was posted upthread that a 15% drop off in GDP is a depression, I don't think the limit is per quarter

[judeling]

16. We are pumping so much cash into the system

That I think we will avoid a depression. We will be in an extended multi-year downturn though.

[Shermann]

13. The restaurant business will take years to recover

I haven't seen a breakdown of where the PPP money went, but I suspect food service workers are getting very little of it. The reason is restaurant owners saw the writing on the wall and aren't going to tough it out. Also food service workers are seen as being fungible. So they were laying off left and right as opposed to temporarily furloughing. They will be much slower to rehire than they were to fire.

[Hekate]

15. I think Great Depression 2 is already here. But what do I know, right?