In terms of death toll due to COVID-19, is the worst behind us?

[milestogo]

As of today we have over a million people infected, and over 58,000 lives lost.

32 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	I have no idea.
	11 (34%)
	Yes, the worst is behind us.
	1 (3%)
	No, we have not seen the worst of this epidemic yet in the US.
	20 (63%)
	OTHER
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[dewsgirl]

1. K and R

[Skittles]

2. not even close

[elleng]

3. SILLY questions, how many STATES do we have,

and how many have reported significant numbers?

[redstatebluegirl]

4. Fall may be worse.

Plus with all the idiots not following social distancing, churches opening, morons needing a haircut and a restaurant meal the next month could be really bad.

[Quixote1818]

10. I don't think fall will be worse because people will be social distancing until a vaccine comes out

even if the states relax things people in general will be wearing masks, washing their hands, trying to social distance as much as possible. There should be more testing by then and perhaps some tracing going on. Not to mention there will be a bit of herd immunity come fall, maybe 20%. There could be some big flair ups in regions but this round will probably be the worst. However, I think there will be a steady number of deaths for the next few months until they find some good treatments.

[redstatebluegirl]

11. The science doesn't agree but I am used

to Americans who refuse to accept what the data says. 45 is opening things to soon. Herd immunity is an interesting thing and it is really to early to think it may be an issue here. This virus is morphing rapidly. Herd immunity is something the right wing loves.

[Quixote1818]

13. You misunderstood my point. I don't think we will get close to full herd immunity ever

If we did then we would lose over a million Americans, but the fact that perhaps 15 or 20% of the population will have had it by this fall will make a big spike like we are having now a bit harder because the virus will be hitting 20% more dead ends than it is now and we will begin each new surge with people already doing a lot of social distancing regardless of how strict the policies are in each state. So exponential growth like we had the first few weeks of March will be hard to get to when there was zero social distancing because Trump was so slow to warn everyone about this. There will be more waves but each one gets slightly smaller and easier to control and I think there will be some really good drugs to save people in a couple of months.

That being said, we probably will still lose more people than we have already because so much time will elapse even if the daily death toll drops quite a bit. And I suspect some red states are going to blow it and have some big spikes.

[Blue_true]

20. You make excellent points.

It hasn't been shown that a person that has antibodies for COVID19 can't be reinfected. Until we get data that show that antibodies mean that a person in protected from covid19, talk of "herd immunity" is pure nonsense.

I don't see people wearing masks broadly unless they are not given a choice, like New York State is doing. Unfortunately, the most important person for getting people to wear masks is an infantile jackass, so I don't see impetus for a big societal step like everyone wearing masks in public happening anytime soon.

Getting people to practice proper hand hygiene is also a wildcard, and again, the person who should be leading that charge is a moron that can't be counted on the push any rational advice on hand-washing.

[Quixote1818]

24. Also, the virus is not morphing rapidly at all and most scientists agree that if someone has had it

then they probably won't get it again other than a few exceptions. Coronaviruses are very stable compared to flu viruses.

Fauci: Recovered coronavirus patients will likely be immune if second wave hits in fall
Anthony Fauci said the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has not mutated much, so people who develop immunity will likely maintain it.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/491988-fauci-recovered-coronavirus-patients-will-likely


Coronavirus seems to mutate much slower than seasonal flu
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html



Can you catch the coronavirus twice? You'll probably be immune — for some time, at least
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/can-you-catch-coronavirus-twice-you-ll-probably-be-immune-n1171976

[Ms. Toad]

28. For this form of coronavirus, you're probably correct -

It seems to be relatively stable But the counterpoint is the common cold. A substantial portion of the common cold is caused by a coronavirus. Many people get those year after year.

[Quixote1818]

32. I trust your judgment on this kind of thing. Do you see a fall wave being as as bad as this wave?

Seems to me with the entire country now doing a good amount of social distancing it's going to be harder to get a big jump in exponential growth again unless states start allowing big crowds perhaps. Probably the biggest issue is the flu will be hitting at the same time also filling up hospitals.

This virus was probably growing quite a bit from the end of February into March with zero social distancing. That is why we saw large exponential growth at first. But that should not occur again. Unless I am missing something, I see more of a series of smaller curves in the future as things are relaxed and then tightened again over and over. But there will never be anything fully relaxed like Feb and early March which screwed us over and why Trump totally mismanaged this.

[Ms. Toad]

34. I'm better on short term (days to a month or two) than long term -

My best guess would be a fair amount of increase earlier than the fall (way more people infected thatn when we shut things down, but more people taking precuations), but more in the fall as we come back indoors (more exposure & people have stopped being so cautious).

In the short term, I've finally come around to the view that more people than I expected wil voluntarily self-protect. The numbers have been so dramatic that I think many people finally understand the exponential nature of his beast.

But understanding it still won't keep it from continuing to increase if there are enough contagious people and people start to get a litle slppy.

[HarlanPepper]

5. "I have no idea" is the only credible answer

[Talitha]

12. Agreed.

It's a new virus - how can anyone even try to guess?

[HarlanPepper]

14. There are a lot of "experts."

And Holiday Inn Express guests.

[captain queeg]

6. Maybe the current rate might drop for awhile but we are a long way from being done.

[BGBD]

7. the nature of the curve

says we will have more deaths after the peak than before it. it's not a bell and it has a fat right tail.

so even if there are no 2nd waves we likely are less than halfway to out deaths total.

[stillcool]

8. I can't see how..

seems there's a lot of states that haven't peaked yet, and there are very few states that don't increase their virus numbers daily by at least double digits. And that's without testing. Who could possibly know?

[Blue_true]

21. We need people wearing masks until we have a proven vaccine or

medicine that positively impacts this virus.

[Quixote1818]

9. Probably not but if a couple of good drugs come out that fight it off, then maybe. nt

[kacekwl]

15. There are thousands of people dying daily.

How can anyone think the worst is behind us ?

[mvd]

16. Had to say I don't know

It may get worse but mostly in states that are stupid enough to reopen too early. And who knows about future waves. Still a very scary situation.

[Blue_true]

17. The worst of the 1918 Pandemic came in the second wave.

There are things that are being done or can be done to improve the result this time around.

For most of the 1918 Pandemic, officials refused to use trained African American Nurses and Doctors. That isn't happening this time, African Americans that have the training are being deployed against this pandemic.

The second item is mask wearing must be mandatory nationwide. The reason why everyone need to wear masks should be explained and every public official, including Trump must wear one when around other people. People that refuse to wear masks in public should first be given a warning, like a traffic citation warning. Failure to heed the warning should result in fines that get progressively larger up to three fines, on the fourth instance, the person should be jailed for 60 days. We often have to give up freedoms for the sake of the betterment of society. The Founders didn't write driver's licenses for everyone that drives a motor vehicle on public roads into the Constitution, but we have that requirement in every state. There are other modern needs where the needs of society took precedent over the desires of individuals, eventhough the Constitution didn't explicitly state that officials could impose certain limits of individuals.

Third, businesses should be encouraged to drive good hand washing hygiene with their employees, it is simply in businesses best interests to do such a thing, absenteeism due to illness would likely be lessened.

[Quixote1818]

19. That was mainly because it mutated into a much more dangerous strain. I totally agree on the masks

and everything else you said.

[Blue_true]

25. Covid19 mutated into the European strain.

I read that a virus doesn't always mutate to become more virulent, the 1918 virus did mutate to one that was more dangerous, let's hope that covid19 takes a turn in the opposite direction and become less lethal, though the recent information about it causing bloodclots throughout the body doesn't seem promising, why didn't Italian and Chinese Doctors see that? Did the virus mutate to start causing bloodclots, if so, where does it mutate to next. I am a Doctor, but I would guess that if -a Doctor has a person open for surgery and see numerous bloodclots forming in that person realtime, he or she should shit his or her pants, what can be done realtime to stop the clotting, given the patient is already opened up and likely already has a lot of tubes in him or her? I know that as an engineer that works with chemical reactions, if I went in to Quincy a reaction, but saw the same reaction going off uncontrollably, I would panic out of my mind about the possibilities, none of which would likely be good.

[Quixote1818]

27. From everything I have read coronaviruses are pretty stable compared to flu viruses

They have a coronavirus from 30 years ago (cold virus strain) and it hasn't changed much at all.

Fauci: Recovered coronavirus patients will likely be immune if second wave hits in fall
Anthony Fauci said the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has not mutated much, so people who develop immunity will likely maintain it.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/491988-fauci-recovered-coronavirus-patients-will-likely


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208379/Coronavirus-mutating-slowly-giving-scientists-time-develop-vaccine.html

[yellowdogintexas]

30. also when the first wave flattened out, several large cities held big parades

https://theweek.com/articles/909181/parade-that-killed-thousands

[Quixote1818]

33. Yes and I don't see even red states doing that this fall. But we will have the regular flu at the

same time this fall and winter which will make things challenging as hospitals fill up with covid and flu patients . EVERYONE needs to get the flu shot this fall! I mean everyone! However, if there is still a lot of social distancing going on, maybe the flu won't get that bad this fall either?

[JCMach1]

18. Is that a joke? Depending on how hard it hits

We would be looking at 500k to 1M by years end

[Blue_true]

26. Dead? My, I hope not. I hope the forceful action that Governor Cuomo took today becomes

a national standard, over Trump's post supine body if necessary.

[JCMach1]

29. The Texas Gov. Opens things tomorrow... Dallas had it's highest

Number of cases and deaths today.

The pandemic is just moving on from a NY story

[yellowdogintexas]

31. oh I think you are quite right.

I need to check Ft Worth numbers

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. How could the worst be behind us?

A generous estimate would be 7-8% of the population has been infected (rejecting the bogus Stanford study), so we’re way far off from any semblance of herd immunity. The death rate may be restrained if people stay home, but the risks won’t diminish anytime soon.

[struggle4progress]

23. It's a mistake to pretend to know the future

[milestogo]

35. Trump is saying this and the media is repeating it.

Just wondered if people here are buying it.

[Maru Kitteh]

36. I wish we knew. We don't.