A reminder

[intrepidity]

Hopefully many have already read the thread about Liz Specht's article "The Math", written in early March.

The reason for the reminder is:

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213054589

Today, April 29th, total US cases: 1,055,455

Thus, it's probably worthwhile to consider the other predictions written there.

[unblock]

1. we haven't had exponential growth in the number of cases for nearly a month now

great call of 1 million by end of april, but at the current rate of a bit under 30,000 new cases daily, 1.3 million around may 5 is more likely.

of course the curve was flattened (belatedly) by protective measures, and if we blindly remove these, the exponential growth will quickly return.

[Squinch]

2. That was when we were doubling every 3 days. We are increasing by about 30%

every week now.

Of course, after Donnie Bodybags has his way and everything opens up again, we'll be back at doubling every 3 days in no time.

But no. We won't have another million for a while yet.

[cayugafalls]

3. We are not testing the way we should be. The numbers will be off.

Mild cases are not tested...we will never know the real numbers of infected.