Guidelines call for 14-day drop in cases to reopen. No state has met them.

[babylonsister]

Guidelines call for 14-day drop in cases to reopen. No state has met them.
Diagnostic tests and contact tracing remain key to controlling the pandemic, experts say.
April 28, 2020, 7:02 PM EDT
By Erika Edwards


As a handful of states begin to ease stay-at-home restrictions, no state that has opted to reopen has come close to the federally recommended decline in cases over a 14-day period.

Even as the U.S. hit the grim milestone of more than 1 million cases Tuesday — one-third of the world's total — Georgia, Minnesota and other states are pushing to reopen businesses, even though new infection rates are still rising.

Some states, such as Colorado and Kentucky, have reported fewer new cases in the past week. But no single state has had a two-week decline in case numbers.

The 14-day guidelines, which President Donald Trump announced April 16, "make sense," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said during a media briefing Tuesday while acknowledging the economic dilemma.

"We want to reopen, but we want to do it without infecting more people or overwhelming the hospital system," Cuomo said.

more...

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/guidelines-call-14-day-drop-cases-reopen-no-state-has-n1194191?fbclid=IwAR3lPEZ1ae9MoyH2lcpCmm8JCjhAikFxt2O9Z6pNYw_ABbM7EWpO76JEHlE


CORRECTION (April 29, 2020, 1:38 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article mischaracterized the federal recommendations for when states can begin to reopen businesses. It is when a state's total coronavirus cases have declined over a 14-day period, not after 14 consecutive days of declining numbers.

[lapfog_1]

1. here are the past 7 days of NEW confirmed cases in California

4/23/2020 11:30pm 37,369 CA
4/24/2020 11:11pm 39,254 CA +1,615
4/25/2020 11:59pm 41,137 CA +1,883
4/26/2020 11:59pm 42,164 CA +1,027
4/27/2020 11:59pm 43,464 CA +1,300
4/28/2020 11:59pm 45,031 CA +1,567
4/29/2020 11:59pm 46,500 CA +1,469

I see no trend line from this grouping that indicates a downward direction in the daily change rate of new cases. the average daily new cases in this time period is 1477... or almost the exact same number as the last increase.

I would expect to see the last two days of increase to be significantly under the rolling average of the last 7 days for us to declare "decreasing new case load"

And CA is one of the more successful states.

Then there is this... I went to the local Safeway 2 weeks ago. Everyone had to get into a line spaced 6 feet apart to get in the store. Everyone was wearing a mask. The attitude was somber. Inside there were directional indicators for every aisle. I went back the same store yesterday... no line to get in. The MAJORITY of people had no masks, no gloves, often in groups of 3 or more. Everyone was ignoring the directional indicators. One lady was coming the wrong way down one aisle with her two children... the older boy (6 or 7) was touching EVERY item as his arm level. No one (but me) had hand wipes.

I got out of there as fast as I could.

This is in central valley near the bay area. A fairly right wing part of the state.

[dalton99a]

2. Trump will have it revised to 7 or 3.

[Rae]

3. It's kind of a catch 22

As testing increases, the number of cases identified is bound to increase as well. Does it make more sense to look at number of hospitalizations to drive the reopening instead? A very large percentage of the positives never develop symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization. Many are asymptomatic. And obviously those testing positive definitely need to self quarantine regardless of the severity of their illness.l

I thought the whole point of this was to not overwhelm the hospitals. We're going to continue to have cases until an effective vaccine is available, and that's at least a year out.

[ScratchCat]

4. Sure they have

I don't know where this is coming from. Florida shows a significant drop in cases from April 16 to April 30. 1200 to 537.

[babylonsister]

6. Sorry, but I don't believe that for one second when

this is going on.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/
Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.

[Baitball Blogger]

5. Maybe that's why Florida is massaging (and trimming off) the numbers