Coronavirus model predicts 100,000 Americans dead by the end of this summer

[left-of-center2012]

A top coronavirus model is predicting that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the summer - as the US death toll surpasses President Donald Trump's best case scenario of 60,000 deaths.

The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May if stay-at-home orders remain in place.

As of Wednesday, the US death toll is now at 61,000 and there are more than one million infections across the country.

The rising death toll means coronavirus could soon be deadlier than any flu season since 1967.

America's worst flu season in recent years was in 2017-2018 when more than 61,000 people died, according to the CDC. The only deadlier flu seasons were in 1967 when about 100,000 Americans died, 1957 when 116,000 died and the Spanish flu of 1918 when 675,000 died.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273607/Top-COVID-19-model-predicts-100-000-dead-end-summer.html

[rampartc]

1. we're over 60k now

might be 100k by june

[uponit7771]

2. omg, "if stay-at-home orders remain in place."

[LisaL]

21. They are already being lifted.

So there will be more dead than 100K.

[sfstaxprep]

3. What's The Deal With These Models?

I think we're going to be over 100K BEFORE the end of May, not the end of summer.

The study anticipates 89K deaths by mid-May, IF stay-at-home orders remain in place? But it will take the until September to add another 11K?

[global1]

4. If? - We Know Today That For Many Red States - The Stay-At-Home Orders Are Being....

relaxed and ended. How does re-opening impact on the projections?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. If stay-at-home continues, then the exit tail is as small as the entry tail (symmetrical).

But they won't continue. tRump and Greed Over People governors will ensure that.

Thing is, deaths lag infections by two to three weeks, because severe cases are kind of "lingering".

And it will take a few doublings among the infected populations (which spread out too) for a jump in infections to become clearer.

So, yeah, deaths could go down as infections go up, and then death trend reverses and goes up again two to three weeks from now. I think that by the end of May the trend will be clear, but then it might be very bad in Trumpistan.

[Midnight Writer]

20. I don't think we have enough data for accurate models. We don't have an accurate death count now.

Let alone months into the future.

Plus the variables are staggering.

Just a few careless people can start a cluster, which, if unchecked, could turn into major catastrophes.

[kairos12]

6. Chump will keep moving the goal posts. If we keep it under 10 million it will be a win.

[JT45242]

7. Over 100,000 already if tests were available

My guess based on the reports of deaths over seasonal average is that my the end of this week we are at over 100,000 deaths already.

We know that by the end of march the increase in deaths over normal was already over 15,000. Given the complete lack of testing, it is likely that the number of deaths for April will be at least 25,000 over seasonal adjusted numbers. Plus, I will bet that all those people who tested positive in Florida but were snowbirds or springbreakers who are not in the Florida count slipped through the cracks everywhere.

When all is said and done, whatever the Trump WH announces is the number is likely 50% larger.

[Mariana]

8. The date of the Summer Solstice this year is June 20.

I rather suspect we'll have 100,000 Americans dead of Covid-19 by the beginning of this summer.

[CanonRay]

9. Actually, at roughly 2000 a day

That is less than 20 days. May 20th?

[beachbumbob]

10. Could be as of end of May at current rate

[ThoughtCriminal]

11. Reality is we may already be over 100,000

When we look at the spike in mortality rates it is obvious that the official count is way under the actual number of deaths. Part of this may be collateral damage deaths that are not directly from COVID-19, but related due to over-burdened health-care systems, delayed treatments, etc.

[FakeNoose]

19. Yes, the private nursing homes and "assisted living" centers are especially precarious

You have to wonder if a lot of them were even tested for Covid, especially if nobody was looking over the admin's shoulders. They probably wanted to keep it quiet for as long as possible.

[nitpicker]

12. Over the last eight days, JHU data shows on average 2K US deaths a day

So starting at 61K this morning:

81 K by May 10
101K by May 20
121K by May 30
141K by Jun 9
161K by Jun 19 (the day before summer solstice)

I hope these numbers are greatly exaggerated.

BUT with the orange one not extending the "days to stop the spread", and people about to rush like lemmings to parks and beaches, I fear the actual numbers may exceed those shown above.

[nitpicker]

14. I have no idea where it goes from there

Given that some sampling for exposure suggests up to 20-25% of downstate NYers have been exposed, this suggests that the NYC area will be starting to reach herd immunity levels ((if that exists with this disease)) by July.

BUT much of the rest of the country has had no such levels of exposure yet.

[Dem2]

13. Let's hope the death rate declines?

I sometimes wonder if it will, but I'm hopeful. Republicans seem determined to keep it high though, to their own (and ours collectively) detriment.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. An Important Data Point In Your Snip

2017-2018, 61k died of the flu. Who was president then?
The drones still bring up swine flu. 9-19,000 dead. BHO was prez for 3 MONTHS when it started.
Now, under PINO, we're already at 122,000 in 2 events, & it's still going up.
It's going be 12x more people than H1N1. Math is hard for some, I guess!

[FakeNoose]

16. We're on a pace now to hit 100K by mid-June

Meanwhile at least a dozen of the stupider states are already talking about ending the quarantine.

So this 100K number is looking WAY too optimistic, unless summer is over by June 15th or so.

[Squinch]

18. Easily.