Deaths per million from covid-19

[totodeinhere]

?w=670

According to this, the USA is not doing too badly. I would attribute this to the good work of some governors such as Governors Cuomo and Newsom.

[genxlib]

1. There is a really wide disparity in the results for the US

In New York State, it is over 1200 deaths per million

In California, it is 50 deaths per million.

Part of it might be under reporting but I am sure a lot has to do with when the protective orders went into effect. That combined with compact living environments that make the social distancing more challenging.

I am also starting to believe that there might be multiple strains of this virus with varying degrees of lethality.

[DrToast]

5. I think there's a few things

California did act quicker, but New York probably is disadvantaged with the proximity in which its citizens live.

[Blue_true]

26. California has the Chinese strain, NYC has the European strain. nt

[Yavin4]

2. "not doing too badly" is a poor standard for the lone super power.

We should be holding ourselves to a higher standard.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. +1

I thought they were trying to "Keep America Great".
Great would in the 3 lowest, at least.

[totodeinhere]

9. I have never been a believer in American exceptionalism. I have always considered that to be

a right wing talking point. The so-called lone super power does not have universal health care. We have the highest level of gun violence in the world and the list goes on and on. So when comparing our record with democratic socialist countries in Western Europe who do have universal health care I don't think that we are doing too badly under the circumstances.

[DrToast]

3. If that's the metric you're using, Cuomo doesn't look too good

New York has 1,212 deaths per 1 million of population.

I think he's doing a good job now, but he was late to the party unfortunately.

[totodeinhere]

10. He freely admits that restrictions were put into place too late.

But he did avoid worst case scenarios that we were hearing about a few weeks ago.

[genxlib]

6. I would also point out...

Where the Country is in timeline of the curve has a big effect on this metric.

Using this data. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Italy peaked March 27th, 33 days ago
Spain peaked April 1rst, 30 days ago
France peaked April 5th, 25 days ago
Belgium peaked April 10th, 20 days ago
UK peaked April 10th, 20 days ago
US peaked April 15th, 15 days ago

We have more to endure before we level out. I expect that we move up that chart as we get farther into the curve.

Of course that assumes a single spike curve. We seem destined to extend ours out into multiple peaks with the early removal of limits.

[Midnight Writer]

7. Exactly. And without more data, it's impossible to say where we stand.

Lots of variables.

My current fear is that this is going to hit rural areas where health care is spotty even in normal times, and folk dismiss this as a "big city problem".

In my hometown, most people are not taking this seriously.

[Wounded Bear]

8. Healthcare in rural America is nothing to write home about...

rural hospitals have been closing for years. They're "not profitable."

The ACA was supposed to include money for local clinics in low served areas. Haven't heard anything about that lately.

'A doctor in every county' would be a good thing for Joe to run on IMHO.

[totodeinhere]

12. I think there are advantages and disadvantages to living in a rural area.

People are not packed as closely together like they are in more urban areas. So there is some measure of natural social distancing in rural areas. But health care facilities are more sparse.

[totodeinhere]

11. I'm afraid that some states will be forced to restore more restrictions when cases begin to spike

again. And that dynamic is already happening in places like Japan and Germany.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248429/Angela-Merkel-says-Germany-gone-FAR-easing-coronavirus-lockdown.html

[Steelrolled]

24. I have been working with this data, and can sort of address your point

What I do is align the starting points for each country at a certain rate (in my case I chose 5 deaths/million). This is not my idea - I have seen others do it. For the US it has been 35 days. The graph below shows where the US is now, compared to where other countries were, when they were at 35 days.

It's is too much data for one chart. As a guide, the US is at the bottom, right on top of Switzerland.



This second chart is the same, except it goes out to 53 days, which is the number of days since Italy reached 5 deaths/million.

[IcyPeas]

13. Note the UK highlighted in yellow

the footnote says UK figures correct as of April 29 at 5pm when deaths outside of hospital were officially released to public

so are American deaths representative of deaths in hospital? So what are the real total numbers?

[Steelrolled]

16. My understanding is they include deaths outside of hospitals

One minor issue is that the time from the death to when it is in the state daily counts can vary depending on where the death occurred. This causes extra fluctuation in the state daily counts.

[Mariana]

14. It's ridiculous to try to make comparisons like this at this time.

To begin with, some of those countries are known to be underreporting both their cases of Covid-19 and the deaths caused by it - including the United States. So, you've concluded that "the USA is not doing too badly" based on false numbers.

[Steelrolled]

15. I think the US is doing a reasonably good job of counting deaths,

from what I have read.

One odd thing is that the state daily counts are based on the deaths that are officially added that day, even though the deaths might have occurred several days previously. Just more noise in the statistics.

[totodeinhere]

19. Yes we have to look at the stats with suspicion.

But it’s all we have to go on right now. Hopefully in the future we can get some better information.

[Hav]

17. Well, it's a chart that for some reason made the effort to show none of the countries

that have a lower death rate. So that's one reason the chart may look relatively good.
Also, not that long ago, that number for the US was in the 60s per million when around 20000 had died. I really fear possible effects of the coming re-opening in some states.

[blitzen]

18. S. Korea, 5; Singapore, 3; Germany, 78; Canada, 89; Mexico, 13; Portugal, 97; Norway, 39; Japan, 3..

Austria, 65; Israel, 26; Romania, 37; Denmark, 78; Finland, 38; Thailand, 0.8; Hungary, 32; Greece, 13;Croatia, 17; Greece, 13; Iceland, 29; Slovenia, 44. Note that all of these countries are contiguous with or near the countries that have failed.

Yeah, we're doing a real heckuva tremendous job. A great success story. 27% of all global deaths are U.S. deaths. Wonderful!

I won't mention any Southern Hemisphere countries, since they haven't had winter yet.

And I won't mention China's 3 deaths per million, since obviously they're lying and we're not undercounting at all!

[greenjar_01]

21. From The Sun

Oh, I get it now.

Interesting not to post the source.

[Dem2]

22. Unfortunately we're 6th, soon to be 5th (passing Italy) in cases/million pop

Since deaths are a lagging indicator, and we're weeks behind some of those countries, I'm not as enthusiastic.

We have 875,000 active cases and unless treatments start to get better, we're set to move up that (grimmest) list too.

As far as the top 20 countries by population, we're dead last (meaning MOST deaths per-capita.) This is important because much of the US has a very low population density.

Not trying to be grim or a killjoy, but we're barely flattening the curve at the present time and there's a long way to go in this pandemic.

[Johnny2X2X]

23. 182nd place out of 192 is good?

OK.

[logme]

25. Be careful, this tend to be inaccurate & misleading due to the use of heterogeneous data

Hi,

You really need to take those kind of chart & comparison with a grain of salt . They are widely inaccurate at the present, since they used heterogeneous data . Not all countries collect covid related deaths with the same accuracy or methodology. Few even properly tally deaths outside hospitals.

Some countries like Belgium or France systematically collect data in retirement homes using postmortem tests if necessary and add those numbers to the deaths in hospitals while many countries simply publish deaths of tested patient in hospitals.

This may be due to lack of resources, logistic issues or simply politics.

Belgium may have been hit hard, but raw numbers used out of context are misleading. There is so far, no reason to suspect the death rate in Belgium to be significantly higher than in the UK for instance or many western countries with a similar demography.


Again, I am shocked that so few countries have actually come through with their promise to consistently communicate detailed data. Excluding for instance data related to deaths in retirement homes despite the fact we know they may represent, in Europe, up to half of the total death directly due to covid-19.

Belgium is one of the too few countries like France for which I can found clear and updated detailed data about non hospitalized deaths on their government website.

In the case of Belgium that almost doubles their numbers. In France they account for about 40% of total deaths. That does not mean however that their actual mortality rate is necessarily higher than the UK for instance which numbers did not include any proper tally of deaths outside hospitals ( until yesterday ).

Thus, heterogeneous data, and the lack of transparency in some countries make it almost impossible to compare the situation within the EU let alone worldwide.



To be honest data from the US appear even less reliable overall, due to the extreme politicization of the crisis & lack of proper coordination. Some states might do their best to collect data while other have an incentive not to do it, or simply lack resources.


Now that so many countries managed to mud the data pool we will have to wait a few month to have properly processed data, based on extensive mortality rates studies, to have any idea of the current situation.


Even raw comparisons of overall seasonal mortality variation do not give clear information if they are not properly processed. This kind of analysis require an acute understanding of the virus, its proven co-morbidity factors and months of works.

At this stage, the current numbers published, simply give an overall idea of the deaths in most countries but with a huge margin of error that may go up up to 100%. That makes it a bit difficult to draw any clear lesson from it.


Proper comparisons & more accurate data will probably be available soon, maybe as soon as in the first quarter of 2021, but it will take some time to fully assess the impact of this pandemic.

[yardwork]

27. The numbers in the US are low because we're not testing.