Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

New data from the University of Pennsylvania suggests that relaxing lockdowns across U.S. cities and states could have serious consequences for the country’s battle to contain the coronavirus, which has infected over a million people while killing more than 66,000 people.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found.

Kent Smetters, the PWBM’s director, said the decision to reopen states is ultimately a “normative judgement that comes down to the statistical value of life.”

He explained: “That’s not a crude way of saying we put a dollar value on life, but it’s the idea that people will take risks all the time for economic reward.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reopening-states-will-cause-233000-more-people-to-die-from-coronavirus-according-to-wharton-model-120049573.html

[PCIntern]

1. Yep. That sounds like my school...

That’s how WE were treated as students and faculty.

[smirkymonkey]

2. K&R

[MyOwnPeace]

3. Isn't "Wharton" where IQ45 claimed to go?

Well then, you KNOW he'll accept this as gospel truth!!

[Squinch]

4. ALL states won't reopen. All states are not run by morons. Only some of them.

[SoonerPride]

5. and that's just through JUNE!

Which seems utterly probable unless the virus miraculously doesn’t like warm weather. Which hasn’t been proven as far as I know.

So yeah.

Here comes a tsunami of death.


And do you think people will be rushing out to malls and theaters will a hundred thousand people dying each month?

I don’t.

The economy won’t bounce back because the economy is people and a good proportion of people will decide shopping isn’t worth dying for.

[Chainfire]

6. I wonder if

the calculation has been made that we are now sufficiently acclimatized to the death numbers that another quarter of a million won't shock us? I also wonder if they may be correct?

The smart thing for the Republicans to do would bury the numbers along with the people.

[npk]

7. Wait, what?

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found.

So they are saying even if we don't reopen the states 233,000 people are going to die by the end of June. And if we do reopen the states then a total of 350,000 people will die by the end of June. So in two months time at least 233,000 more/additional people are going to die even if we keep the states closed and keep social distancing. So either way we are screwed. This makes no sense.

[Igel]

8. Yes, that's what it says.

If the states reopen while not reopening at all 233,000 additional people will die.

I think this is probably where the information originated prior to being blendered in true post-modern fashion.

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/5/1/coronavirus-reopening-simulator

[tblue37]

9. Maybe it's a typo for "even if some states don't reopen at all." nt

[npk]

10. Interesting!

If just the states in the Northeast (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, etc) were to fully reopen, with full social distancing retractions there could be over 400,000 deaths in two months. Even taking into account a full reopening of sorts, with social distancing and other current guidelines remaining in place you would see over 120,000 deaths again just in that region alone. What this tells me is that without a vaccine, which many believe is more than a year away, we have to keep the states shutdown and states have to keep shelter in place laws in effect. Even a partial reopen with social distancing guidelines is still a lot of death for the Northeast alone. Don't think we have the president in the white house to accomplish that. That model is sobering to say the least.