Risk Of Exposure To COVID-19 In Georgia Has Increased By More Than 40% Since The State Reopened

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kevinmurnane/2020/05/04/the-risk-of-exposure-to-covid-19-in-georgia-has-increased-by-more-than-40-since-the-state-reopened-for-business/amp/

May 4, 2020,07:00am EDT

The Risk Of Exposure To COVID-19 In Georgia Has Increased By More Than 40% Since The State Reopened For Business.


Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp began relaxing restrictions on businesses when he decreed that gyms, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, barbers/hair salons, nail salons and massage therapists could reopen on April 24. Restaurants, movie theaters and private social clubs were added to the list on April 27. Kemp then abandoned his shelter-in-place order which was scheduled to expire on May 13 and reopened the state on May 1. The risk of exposure to COVID-19 for people who live in Georgia has increased every day since Kemp began reopening the state.

The incidence rate (IR) for COVID-19 is calculated as the number of coronavirus cases for every 100,000 people. It’s the best publicly available metric we have for estimating an individual’s risk of exposure to the virus. (Information about why IR is a good metric can be found here.) The Covid-19 Case Mapper compiled by Stanford University’s Big Local News in collaboration with Pitch Interactive and the Google News Initiative reports IR for counties, states and the US as a whole.

Georgia ranked as the 16th worst state in the US for risk of exposure to COVID-19 on April 21, three days before Kemp began allowing businesses to reopen. At that time, the incidence rate for Georgia was 180.7. Five days later on April 26 Georgia’s IR had risen to 211.5, a 30.8% increase.


https://thumbor-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w1200/s/thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/711x771/

incidence rate map for Georgia on May 2, 2020 STANFORD UNIVERSITY

Georgia’s citizens run a substantially greater risk of contracting COVID-19 now than they did before Kemp allowed businesses to reopen. Did reopening the state cause the increase in risk of exposure? The increase in IR is suggestive but far from conclusive.

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