WaPo confirms: A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day

[MelissaB]

Link to tweet

Draft report predicts covid-19 cases will reach 200,000 a day by June 1

A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.

The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point.

The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly disavowed the report, though the slides carry the CDC’s logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.

The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.

More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

[MelissaB]

1. An influential model often cited WH will revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in

An influential model often cited WH will revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility. It had predicted 72,433 deaths.

Link to tweet

[Voltaire2]

2. We are totally fucked.

[SoonerPride]

4. +200,000 (a day)

[NNadir]

10. Statistically though, one expects that a large segment of the deaths will involve...

...people like this guy in the "Blue Lives Really Don't Matter" squad:



It is a shame that these types will be disease vectors, and may sicken people who are, um, human beings instead of being racist apes, but the Darwin award exists for a reason.

I hate to be cold, but it's a reality. Live by the big mouth, die by the big mouth.

[SoonerPride]

3. A 7x increase in infections per day but only a 1.5x increase in deaths per day??

We have anywhere from 25,000-30,000 new infections per day now. So 200,000 is roughly 7x that amount.

And we have been averaging 2,000 MOL deaths per day.

Even their math seems overly optimistic with only 3,000 deaths per day.

[genxlib]

11. I wondered about that myself

That math only works if we are capturing all of those asymptomatic and mild cases that we were previously missing.

And I do mean ALL of them.

I don't think that we have shown the capacity or the will to do that level of testing.

Or perhaps, the study meant actual cases and not just confirmed cases. That would make a lot more sense.

[C_U_L8R]

5. It's the Trump effect

Whatever could go wrong will definitely go wrong - only bigly-er

[BComplex]

6. You nailed it!

This is the USA under total republican rule (white house, justice department, senate).

[Renew Deal]

7. That should equal around 10,000 deaths a day.

[Doodley]

8. Trump is banking on winning the election by bringing the economy back and promising next year

will be "tremendous." He doesn't think the number of cases or the death toll matter as much.

[Ms. Toad]

9. Well, Duh.

Ohio started with 1 case when it started shut-down measures - and here we are at ~20,500.

So do they really think the exponential math works differently when you start with 20,500, instead of 1?????

The # of cases in every jurisdiction vastly exceeds the number of cases that justified shutting down in the first place. Reopening the country before we have the capability to trace infections and isolate is asinine.

[Botany]

12. Only 1 thing to do open it all back up.

So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
What a long time since I've been home
And I've gotta be driftin' along

I've sung this song, but I'll sing it again
Of the people I've met and the places I've seen
Some of the troubles that bothered my mind
And a lot of good people that I've left behind, singing

So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
So long, it's been good to know ya
What a long time since I've been home
And I've gotta be driftin' along

[Alex4Martinez]

13. Quick, Jared, buy up all the tests and lose them, this way there won't be any new cases.

Then blame Obama.

[genxlib]

14. I have a theory

That they mean real cases and not just tested and confirmed cases.

We all know the real prevalence of the virus has been way beyond the confirmed cases due to a limited testing.

It's the only way the math works. If they were counting new confirmed cases, the number of deaths would be way higher as noted elsewhere here.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. That Seems Right

Either that, or they are including a notion that mass testing will kick in.
That would make the math work, too, but seems unlikely.

[Alex4Martinez]

15. "White House Rejects Government Report Projecting Rising Coronavirus Death Toll"

Well, that didn't take long.

https://www.kpcw.org/post/white-house-rejects-government-report-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll

[Alex4Martinez]

17. -----See page 10 in the report ------

Here:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=10

Note the red zones of projected new cases, then follow the vertical lines up from the x-axis for 2020-05-15 and 2020-06-1 and you'll see that the projected daily cases are beginning to rise dramatically.

This is NOT a flattened curve.

[Drahthaardogs]

18. He DOES NOT CARE!

Open it up! We need the money! FREEDOM!

[rurallib]

19. 200,000/day 6,000,000/month

almost inconceivable.