This is going to go on for years and years
and years.
This - this being COVID-19 and the US response to it - is not a "blip" that will be over any time soon.
The economic impact will be felt for years, maybe decades. The impact - and the recovery, whatever that might entail - is a generational thing.
Businesses will not just restart. For those old enough to remember the blue screen of death - that's what this restart will look like. Rebooting may work. It may not. Do you have the Windows OS CD convenient? Do you know how to reformat the hard drive, and do you remember what that was like?
Malls may open, businesses may open, and, sure, people may turn out to visit and shop. But my guess? Many won't. Why take the risk? Most everything can be ordered online. For personal services, my barber is taking appointments for when our community "reopens." Don't get me wrong. My hair looks like my ID cards from the 1980s, which is horrifying, and I like my barber; seems pretty sensible. But you know what? I can wait. Or I can experiment with cutting my own hair. Going out to eat? I miss it, but take out is just fine. I know that restaurants will close, and that's unfortunate, but why should I take that risk? And any number of people providing personal services will encounter tremendous hardship.
Work is going to change. Teleworking/telecommuting will expand. Going to the office will not be the default setting. And companies that fail to embrace this "new normal" will have to face a hostile work force. Sure, they may not care - after all, with a 30% unemployment rate there are people willing to risk their health and their lives for a paycheck, even if that paycheck requires them to packed into cubicles. And while I may be able to begin to understand the long-term impact, I'll leave that to people smarter than I am. But it will be considerable.
Sadly, I doubt that the food processing industries will change. Like Trump himself, they don't really give a hoot about their employees and their health. They are fodder, and there are more where they came from. And, again, with unemployment raging, people will be willing to take those jobs.
Maybe this state of affairs will reawaken interest in union membership, and union power. Or, again, maybe not what with the unemployment.
And then there's the elephant in the room - health care. When will you feel comfortable going to see your doctor about that pain in your hip? Or maybe you'll wait. And maybe you'll be in pain. And maybe you'll die because it just didn't seem like a good idea to hang out in a doctor's office waiting room. And who is going to pay for it now that you don't have work-related health insurance? Maybe that Medicare for all is worth looking at. But Medicare isn't free, so there are those additional costs. Big issues, not easily resolved, especially in the polarized environment that Republicans have created over 40 years and that Republicans today embrace fully.
I guess the overall point is that almost everything will change. And no one know what direction that will take. But without a sensible, responsible guiding hand from the WH on down, the potential for disaster is tremendous.
I'm rambling, I know. But we need very quickly to get used to the idea that "reopening" the country is not a light switch event. And COVID-19 in the late winter and spring of 2020 is not a blip or a one-off event.
= new reply since forum marked as read
