Why Trump Should Worry About His Approval Rate

[babylonsister]

I hope he's losing lots of sleep.

https://politicalwire.com/2020/05/06/why-trump-should-worry-about-his-approval-rate/

Why Trump Should Worry About His Approval Rate
May 6, 2020 at 8:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Jonathan Bernstein: “Trump’s net approval is -8.1 (that is, 43.2 approval minus 51.3 disapproval). The three recent presidents who were easily re-elected had solid positive net approval at this point: Richard Nixon at +17.7, Bill Clinton at +16.1 and Ronald Reagan at +15.3. The two most recent presidents both won somewhat narrowly; at this point, Barack Obama was at +1.7 and George W. Bush at -0.3. And then there were the two most recent losers. George H.W. Bush had fallen from a then-record approval down to -6.8. Jimmy Carter was only at -2.7, but that was probably just a quirk of the data, since he had recently been at -10 and would soon sink even further underwater.”

“Both Carter and the first Bush dipped lower by Election Day; the three easy winners all improved further. That suggests there’s still time for Trump to either rise to a level where he could win re-election — or to plunge low enough for former Vice President Joe Biden to win something around 400 electoral votes.”

“The truth is that if voters react to the current recession the way they typically do in an election year, Trump will lose, and lose badly.”

[SoonerPride]

1. It won't be just a recession. Welcome to the trump depression

[dalton99a]

5. +1. Not your normal business cycle contraction. It's a fucking unmitigated disaster

thanks to the evil monster they put in charge

[Demsrule86]

6. The economy is in tatters and it is not just Trump...the Senate is about to play hardball with aid

for suffering Americans. I believe we are about to see not only a Biden win...but a huge win in the house and the Senate. America is in very bad shape and all the shiny objects the GOP generally relies on won't work. This election is akin to 1932 where the GOP lost 12 incumbent Senate seats. This is a realignment election. And Biden will do things that help Americans...may be that in future years, Americans will have a picture of Joe Biden (a Pres. Obama too) on their wall as my Grandparents did of Roosevelt. Like the ACA, the Democratic policies will be popular and the GOP will spend much time in the wilderness...as they deserve assuming they survive at all.

[Pepsidog]

12. I wish all that as well but never forget we Dems can multi-task and exact revenge at the same time

with investigations, impeachments (Kavenaugh), and indictments.

[Demsrule86]

19. No, to imeaching Kavenaugh...that is oer. What we may need to do is expand the court. As for

investigations, not the time for this. The American people are hurting and need help...that has to be our focus.

[Pepsidog]

20. Sounds good to me.

[calimary]

13. And that's what we need to call it and how we need to refer to it. The trump Depression.

You like sticking your name on everything, donald? Just like the way a dog pees on everything to mark its territory? Your whole life is about marking your territory? Well, HAVE THIS TERRITORY, TOO!!!!!

We’ll mark your territory in this case, if you somehow don’t get around to this one. And if you don’t like it, that’s just too damn bad.

The trump Depression. That has a nice ring to it. Certainly fits.

[gratuitous]

2. I hope Trump is very worried

But that's not going to factor into the effort we need for November. Let's apply ourselves to this election with a good will and a cheerful heart. We're in the majority, and we're rolling. Let's keep it up, keep encouraging one another, and do our best for the country.

[azureblue]

9. he should be worried

if there is a surge in sales of tar and feathers.

[Demsrule86]

21. +10000

[Zeus69]

3. And yet...

Dead heat in national polls. We are the "dumbest" first world nation on earth.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/bidens-edge-evaporates-as-trump-seen-as-better-suited-for-economy-coronavirus-response-poll-shows/ar-BB13EiZ6?li=BBnb7Kz

[Demsrule86]

7. I don't believe that for a minute. Stop the gloom and doom.

[azureblue]

10. uh, nope.

NT. total BS and definitely a brigaded poll.

[Demsrule86]

22. That is a bullshit internet poll.,,1200 voters who said they were registered

Biden is ahead.

[OrlandoDem2]

4. Trump has broken the polls. He and the GOP have ID'd voters with a visceral love for him.

They will continue to do so.

Our only hope of winning is to analyze and ID the Biden voters then GOTV. Period.

At this point I trust no polls.

We will not convert any Trump voters. We must find the people who didn’t vote at all and GOTV.

Trump will campaign on building the economy and say over and over and over again that he built the greatest economy in history. Biden better know how to campaign on the economy and his VP will need to to show she understands the economy.

I am from Fl and Rick Scott wrote the playbook. He is an evil person but said the following in every campaign.


IOBS IOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS


Every question he pivoted to JOBS!! If he was asked about the Syrian Civil War, he talked about JOBS...in Fl.

He won.

The campaign isn’t about the rainforest. climate change, or anything else that Democratic voters ID with. It’s jobs.

I am a pro choice, environmental climate change, racial equality voter. Most people aren’t. The average person is all about.....JOBS.

[Demsrule86]

8. The situation will not get better...There is no way to stimulate this economy. Americans would need

to spend money to do this and they won't. We have a consumer driven economy and the consumers won't spend a dime. Hopefully, we will bring back manufacturing as it is a national security issue not to make important goods in our own country.

[Pepsidog]

14. Forget polls.99% Hillary will win said polls. Stomp the bastards and vote them

into oblivion.

[calimary]

15. Good point. Most voters vote micro, not macro.

Whatever is immediately under their noses. The wider view? The needs of the many? The greater good? “Meh, screw that. I don’t wanna pay taxes!”

[OrlandoDem2]

18. Joe Biden needs to say "economy" and "jobs" for the next 6 months.

He can pivot to vaccine, tests, every now and then but he needs to learn from past campaigns.

Clinton...”it’s the economy, stupid”

Voldemort Scott “letS get to work”

If he tries to campaign on anything else he is doomed.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. MAGAt Crusaders are willing to die for the cause

and the nation is so polarized, are there still enough people wavering either way? That means in the final analysis the ignorant decide???

[Dopers_Greed]

16. What is his approval in swing states?

That's all that matters.

If he does end up winning, he will lose popular, but win EC.

[aikoaiko]

17. It would be splendid if Trump lost bigly in 2020, but his approval rating was -21 in 2016

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html

I believe the past is the best predictor of the future, but all those other presidents who lost with negative approval ratings were normal people in the context of normal politics.

We have neither now.