Do not listen to the fantasy vaccine bullshit.

[shockey80]

The chances of having a vaccine this year is zero, it's a fantasy. Having a vaccine next year may be possible, maybe.

Every expert I have listened too said there is a testing process, procedure that takes at least a year. They will find possible vaccines to test this year, but then they have to go through the testing process. Many of them will fail the process. There are no short cuts in the testing process.


After the testing process you then have to manufacture millions/billions of doses. You don't do that over night. Then you have to get the vaccine to everyone, that takes time. It could be years before there is a vaccine, if ever.

It makes much more sense to pin our hopes on doctors finding drugs that helps people survive the virus. I have no doubt doctors will get better and better treating people who are sick. It all takes time.

[Worried2020]

1. Many forget that it just doesn't only take time to find a vaccine.

I takes time to test it

Trials,

Manufacturing,

then Distribution.

We best stick to Social distancing for the foreseeable future.

We must adapt, and use the skills we have.

We already know how to do much of our work online,

same with shopping, whether it be for necessities or not . . .

We can do this, but we must accept an uncomfortable fact.

Things will never be the same.

W

[notdarkyet]

2. Especially be suspicious if it comes from Jared and company.

[Aristus]

3. Man, the anti-vaxxers are gonna be PISSED that they can't decline it right now.

[zipplewrath]

4. Well, the odds are steep

They are doing multiple safety trials right now. That'll take a couple of months and most, if not all will fall short. Then they'll have to start effectivity trials. The problem is the odds are really long that one or maybe two that get through the safety trials will ALSO show effectiveness. And they'll have to be doing simultaneous trials which means more numerous number of volunteers. Worse, the effectiveness very likely will be much less than 100%. But they are discussing starting mass production before these drugs have been proven safe and effective. That will accelerate things a little. But I'm dubious that any drug will make it past the first two steps.

[DrToast]

8. Yes, it is possible vaccines will be available this year

It's not a certainty, but it is possible.

In the global race to find a vaccine, Oxford University just jumped way ahead of the pack. Human testing is already underway, and scientists say they're hopeful a coronavirus vaccine will be widely available by September.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-september-oxford-university/

[zipplewrath]

11. Yes, but it's safety testing

They've started safety testing. Then they have to do effectiveness testing. It would seem long odds that they'll get through both on the first try. They will have to start mass production before they know they've been successful.

[DrToast]

13. Mass production will be begin before vaccines have completed testing

Virtually everyone has said that.

Is it a long shot it will be done this year? Maybe. But it's not "zero chance," which is what was suggested in the original post.

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. One of the supply chain that needs to ramp up is to manufacture medically grade glass vials

we just donot have capacity to manufacture 4-5billion vials in short period of time.

[SCantiGOP]

6. Trump doesn't care if there is a vaccine

All of his current rhetoric is designed so that he can claim, during the height of campaigning in Sept/Oct, that the vaccine he oversaw is ready and will be distributed just after the election. Like everything else he says, it doesn't matter a bit if this statement has any basis in fact, as long as he can use it to deflect his disastrous handling of the whole pandemic.

[Blue_true]

23. I thought of exactly what you just stated.

Trump just wants to put up a smokescreen, "I made sure that a vaccine was done in record time, 3 billion doses are being made right now, RIGHT NOW!! I kept my promise, unlike Sleepy Joe with H1N1". He want the White Surburban moms that went for his shit in 2016 and voted for him, to ignore their gut and simple logic and vote for him and his promises of a better coming day. I just hope that enough people that got taken in by his BS last time are smarter now.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

7. Shortcuts are being taken and discussed.

Namely, they are spinning up manufacturing of the most promising vaccine candidates now, and will produce them as the candidates go through the testing process so they can distribute immediately if approved. Going to wind up with a lot of useless product if what they are producing doesn't get approved, but if it is then millions of doses will be ready immediately after approval. [link:https://www.businessinsider.com/india-serum-institute-millions-oxford-university-vaccine-before-approval-2020-4|]

For testing, I have read they are considering doing human challenge trials. The ethics and legalities are up for debate, but it would drastically cut down on the efficacy phase. They are considering this because the shelter in place orders will drag out that phase longer then usual. Lowered transmission rates due to the shutdown orders and social distancing mean those given the test vaccines have much lower chances to be exposed naturally to the virus. Purposely exposing them removes that issue and speeds up the process. Obviously there are risks which is why it's being discussed, but not yet implemented.
[link:https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/05/coronavirus-vaccine-challenge-trial-ethics-covid-19/3061009001/|]

[totodeinhere]

19. In so far as shortcuts can be done safely and judiciously I am all for that.

We need a vaccine as soon as possible. But we don't want a cure that is worse than the disease so we need to be careful.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

20. Agreed

A failed vaccine, or worse, a dangerous one, would destroy trust in vaccines. Anti vaxxers would have a field day.

[shockey80]

9. If they take shortcuts on the testing process.

Many experts will come forward and warn us about the risk. This will lead to millions of people, including myself, who will not take the vaccine.

[duforsure]

10. I would not trust it anyway if one was produced

Under a trump dictatorship, and would not take it, and instead wait for one I could trust being done right.

[DrToast]

15. There are volunteers already

As of today, 13,704 volunteers across 102 countries.

https://1daysooner.org/

[totodeinhere]

18. Apparently the Chinese government covered up the early scope of the disease

but I would not take that out on the Chinese people.

[Nature Man]

24. Yellow peril bullshit

racist as fuck.

[stopbush]

14. Biggest hurdle: once a vaccine is available, half of Americans won't get it

Less than half of Americans get the annual flu shot. Why? 1. They don’t feel sick and 2. They don’t think it works.

We can expect about the same level of response once a COVID-19 vaccine is available.

Plus: anti-vaxers and Response #10 above.

[zak247]

16. Oxford University's timeline for a COVID-19

I wouldn’t want to raise hopes but the one from Oxford which claims IF everything goes well can be ready by September, according to many, is unique:

The researchers were able to move swiftly because they had already developed a vaccine candidate for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), a virulent respiratory disease caused by another member of the coronavirus family. Last year they showed that the vaccine was safe in people and prompts an immune response that lasts for at least a year. In January, the group began adapting the technique to create a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19.

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-vaccine-oxford-september/

“This is a promising vaccine candidate,” says Sarah George, an infectious disease researcher at Saint Louis University who is leading a clinical trial for remdesivir, an antiviral that is being investigated as a treatment for COVID-19. “We don’t know if it’s going to work, but the idea is good.”

Most vaccine candidates fail during some stage of testing. It’s therefore plausible—but very far from certain—that this particular vaccine might be available by autumn, George says.
To create their vaccine, the Oxford team genetically engineered a virus that is harmless in people to carry genetic material from SARS-CoV-2. The virus they chose, which belongs to a family called adenoviruses, causes a common cold in chimpanzees. The researchers modified the virus so that it could not replicate in people; this approach has previously been used to test vaccines for more than 10 different diseases, though none has made it to market.

I won't sit up here and dispute this with anyone the information about this is widespread and speaks for itself. Of course, no one in this claims certainty. They claim it's an 80 percent chance they can pull off having the vaccine ready by September.

One of Britain's top scientists is "80 percent" confident that a vaccine for COVID-19, which has killed over 108,000 people globally, could be ready by September.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/492372-top-uk-scientist-80-percent-confident-a-covid-19-vaccine-could-be

Time will tell

[totodeinhere]

17. We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold or for AIDS.

Hopefully we will get a vaccine for covid-10 as soon as possible although it's also possible we may never have one.

[Igel]

21. HIV has its own weirdness.

There's nothing keeping us from having a vaccine for any of the common cold viruses.

The reason we don't is because it's too much of a bother..

If you get a cold, it's annoying. Very few die from a cold.

If you get a vaccine against that particular virus, it saves you from getting that particular cold. There are others. So you'd need a bunch of vaccines.

But none of them would protect you for long--maybe the following year, more likely two years later, and certainly by three years later you'd have lost the immunity from that vaccine and need a booster shot.

So you'd need maybe 6 vaccines a year.

The compromise is to let you get colds. Because having multiple vaccines, the cost of producing them, the cost and time of administering them just aren't worth it.

[obamanut2012]

22. It is not a fantasy, it is absolutely possible

[Generic Brad]

25. I do not want the impeached Trump's placebo vaccine

Lies.Lies. And more lies.

[AtheistCrusader]

26. It COULD be fast-tracked, but there are consequences.

Such as; an ineffective vaccine.

There is ENORMOUS political pressure to fast-track it. So there may be a 'fantasy vaccine' this year, but it quite likely could be a dud.
You are correct that people need to temper their expectations.