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Trump Wants a Quick Reopening. Data His Own White House Is Examining Shows It Could Be a Disaster
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-wants-a-quick-reopening-data-his-own-white-house-is-examining-shows-it-could-be-a-disaster
A mere two weeks of more social distancing could result in hundreds, if not thousands, of fewer COVID cases a day in individual counties.
Erin Banco
National Security Reporter
Published May. 06, 2020 10:28PM ET
One of the studies that the Trump administration is relying on as it moves ahead with plans to reopen the U.S. economy, warns that even if states take the necessary steps to ease social distancing restrictions, counties across the country—both big and small—will see a significant spread of coronavirus.
The study, which was put together by PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, is in the hands of top coronavirus task force officials and those working with the team, sources confirmed to The Daily Beast. It projects that if officials move too quickly and too aggressively to reopen in mid May, individual counties could witness hundreds, if not a thousand-plus, more coronavirus cases reported each day by August 1. A mere two weeks more of social distancing, the study projects, could result in substantial progress in keeping infections down—with potentially hundreds of thousands of fewer cases if the projections are conservatively expanded out to all 3,000-plus counties across the country.
The modeling shows that those counties exist in various parts of the country, including in both urban and rural communities. In almost all cases, counties would see notably less cases per day if they waited to ease social distancing restrictions until June 1, according to the study’s projections. The model also suggests that states moving to ease restrictions should consider allowing individual counties to craft their own policies. Under the projections, one county could experience significantly different daily case numbers than others in the state—even those nearby—merely by continuing to adhere to social distancing protocols.
“There’s going to be transmission if people stop sheltering in place,” Dr. Rubin, the director of PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, said in an interview. “It’s not that all [counties] are safe to reopen. Every area is extremely sensitive to the amount of distancing you’re doing. The more cautious you are the better.”
</snip>
A mere two weeks of more social distancing could result in hundreds, if not thousands, of fewer COVID cases a day in individual counties.
Erin Banco
National Security Reporter
Published May. 06, 2020 10:28PM ET
One of the studies that the Trump administration is relying on as it moves ahead with plans to reopen the U.S. economy, warns that even if states take the necessary steps to ease social distancing restrictions, counties across the country—both big and small—will see a significant spread of coronavirus.
The study, which was put together by PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, is in the hands of top coronavirus task force officials and those working with the team, sources confirmed to The Daily Beast. It projects that if officials move too quickly and too aggressively to reopen in mid May, individual counties could witness hundreds, if not a thousand-plus, more coronavirus cases reported each day by August 1. A mere two weeks more of social distancing, the study projects, could result in substantial progress in keeping infections down—with potentially hundreds of thousands of fewer cases if the projections are conservatively expanded out to all 3,000-plus counties across the country.
The modeling shows that those counties exist in various parts of the country, including in both urban and rural communities. In almost all cases, counties would see notably less cases per day if they waited to ease social distancing restrictions until June 1, according to the study’s projections. The model also suggests that states moving to ease restrictions should consider allowing individual counties to craft their own policies. Under the projections, one county could experience significantly different daily case numbers than others in the state—even those nearby—merely by continuing to adhere to social distancing protocols.
“There’s going to be transmission if people stop sheltering in place,” Dr. Rubin, the director of PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, said in an interview. “It’s not that all [counties] are safe to reopen. Every area is extremely sensitive to the amount of distancing you’re doing. The more cautious you are the better.”
</snip>
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