Some good info from an Epidemiologist and colleague of an acquaintance of mine.

[imavoter]

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR0bqA_wTJZpTZ5UCfSxXJ3gJrLvmWBsfbSMK-62tlT6hbreVG9XvNiNmZo

titled:
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

[dixiegrrrrl]

1. Also, there is a Survival Rate Calculator now online

by the young man who has been doing the virus tracker I use.

https://ncov2019.live/calculator

[lunatica]

2. It says I have a 5.04% chance of dying from it

I’m assuming that’s if I get it. I’m 72.

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. The risk factors could be tweaked a bit

or at least defined.
fer instance, hypertension. Does that mean undiagnosed or mean controlled with medication?

same with all of the factors, I guess. Cancer= with or without remission?

But, the chart is a start, and provides a broad range of risk, it seems.

[csziggy]

19. Yes, I have had hypertension but it is under control so I marked no

I had cancer but it was removed with no need for treatment and three years in, no recurrence. If I marked yes for cancer, I have a 28% chance of getting Covid-19; with a no it's only 5.04%.

[dixiegrrrrl]

41. Just to be clear, the page indicates your risk for survival IF you get it

It's not a risk chart OF getting it

[csziggy]

42. Whoops - yes, you are right

It says, "You have an estimated 5.00% chance of dying from covid-19."

[LeftInTX]

16. I got the same...I'm 64

[LuckyCharms]

4. Says my risk of death is 63.34%.

[Solomon]

24. Yikes!!!!! I'm 92%!

[LuckyCharms]

30. Don't worry.

Every body is different.

I'm finding it difficult to see how clicking a couple of boxes on a website can produce an accurate result.

For example....Do you have heart disease? Doesn't ask what kind of heart disease. AFIB? PVC's? Slightly thickened wall of heart muscle? Repaired blockage?

Hypertension? For how long? How severe is it?

Diabetes? Well controlled? Brittle? For how long?

Try not to worry.

[CountAllVotes]

7. +1

Thank you!

& recommend!!

[Mike 03]

3. He really digs deep into the virus exposure X time aspect.

It's fascinating how he really details how this works. So you're more likely to be exposed sitting in a restaurant for an hour than moving through a grocery store or passing by a very infected jogger.

Thanks for posting this.

[stopdiggin]

8. Yes. This information is critically important to understanding transmission

and almost nothing about it is being presented or discussed.

[Blue_true]

28. Fauci likely would cover that if he wan't being muzzled half the time he talks. nt

[stopdiggin]

35. best I can do with Fauci these days

is a version of benefit of the doubt. I've seen too much weaseling, too much waffling. Too much vacillation and capitulation to be much of a proponent. I understand the position he is in .. but I think, just like everyone else that comes within this orbit, he will find his career, his reputation, and ultimately his character sullied and tarnished by the man he serves under. A sad end, to what had been an exemplary career.

[leftieNanner]

5. This is fascinating

I just sent it to my family.

Thanks so much for sharing imavoter!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Thank you so much for posting that.

I just put it on FB.

I find it wearisome that people think they have to disinfect everything coming into their house, or not touch mail for three days because it all carries the coronavirus.

Yes, it is still a terrible and infectious disease, but it's not as deadly as, oh, say, Bubonic Plague. Nor, as distressing as the numbers of deaths are, do they as yet show any sort of impact on population growth. 360,000 babies are born every day. That of course is a number that has to be very drastically reduced, otherwise, it will take 360,000 people dying every day just to keep population even. Right now, fewer than half that many die each day. Yes, the daily death totals are up somewhat, but not, at least so far, by amounts that will noticeably affect population totals.

No, I am not wishing or hoping more people die from this. And even though certain political leaders have said something along the lines of, It's okay that this is happening because most of those who are dying are old and a burden on society, the fact is (numbers again) that some 61 million Americans are on Social Security. One in five of us. Even if the worst case scenarios are correct, and even if every single American who dies from this had been collecting SS, there would not be a noticeable diminution of claims at the end.

I'm sure a lot of people here reading this will think I'm completely calloused and ought to be banned, but I'm a bit of a numbers person, and so I tend to look at numbers.

Here's something interesting. As terrible as the 1918 flu epidemic was, it did not put a seeable dent in population growth. What it did do for two years was to strongly impact life expectancy in a lot of countries. But only for two years. After that life expectancy bounced back everywhere to what it had been.

[LAS14]

12. I'm not sure the article gave you a break from your wearisome practices.

Toward the end it acknowledges that it did not address surface transmission.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

13. It does point out that far and away the vast majority of transmissions

are between people in somewhat close quarters.

And trust me, I'm not sanitizing everything that comes into my house, and I am totally unconvinced that anyone is getting this from the mail (otherwise most carriers would have keeled over by now) or from ATM keyboards. The article does address the need to have a certain volume or density of virus actually in the air, which isn't going to be happening with surfaces.

[LAS14]

20. Not sure about your point here.

"The article does address the need to have a certain volume or density of virus actually in the air, which isn't going to be happening with surfaces."

Are you saying that it does not address a significant means of transmission, or are you saying that somehow particles on surfaces need to get in the air? No, probably not.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

26. My point is that the people who think they need to sanitize everything are wrong.

It basically says so in the article.

I know. Someone is going to respond by smugly saying they sanitize everything and haven't been sick yet. Well, a lot of people are not sanitizing everything and likewise haven't been sick yet either.

[LAS14]

27. Could you give a quote from the article?

This is what stood out for me re sanitizing things.

While I have focused on respiratory exposure here, please don't forget surfaces. Those infected respiratory droplets land somewhere. Wash your hands often and stop touching your face!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

33. I'll try these.

Indoor spaces, with limited air exchange or recycled air and lots of people, are concerning from a transmission standpoint. We know that 60 people in a volleyball court-sized room (choir) results in massive infections. Same situation with the restaurant and the call center. Social distancing guidelines don't hold in indoor spaces where you spend a lot of time, as people on the opposite side of the room were infected.
The principle is viral exposure over an extended period of time. In all these cases, people were exposed to the virus in the air for a prolonged period (hours). Even if they were 50 feet away (choir or call center), even a low dose of the virus in the air reaching them, over a sustained period, was enough to cause infection and in some cases, death.

and

If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed.

Perhaps more to the point is that the article focusses on how being close together is the real risk factor. Not viruses on random surfaces.

[LAS14]

34. I don't see any info about surface transmission in either quote. nt

[Blue_true]

29. Infection from particles on surfaces is a lot more controllable than the aerosol route.

After touching packages and other stuff, as Samuel L. Jackson would say, "wash our fucking hands!!!!!!". If we suck in a lot of particles while sitting in our favorite eating place, that is not as controllable.

[LAS14]

22. Mail carriers.

"and I am totally unconvinced that anyone is getting this from the mail (otherwise most carriers would have keeled over by now)"

By the time a carrier is handling individual pieces of mail it has had time to lose potency. But if a carrier is infected, the recipient will get a freshly contaminated piece of mail. All it takes is a UPS guy sneezing on your package.

[ARPad95]

10. I'm turning 60 this year so I'm right between 2 age groups.

Plus I'm diabetic (an odd case since I'm not Type I and not classic Type II either) and can have bouts of very high blood pressure.

In the 40 - 59 age group:

You have an estimated 31.18% chance of dying from covid-19

In the 60 - 79 age group:

You have an estimated 61.93% chance of dying from covid-19

I'm not too worried though. Nobody ever looks at me and thinks I'm anywhere near 60 years old. Usually, they think I'm in my 40s. I'm on Metformin for diabetes and Lisinopril for hypertension. However, when I'm consistently exercising (life-long runner/jogger), eating well (very low carb), reducing stress and getting enough sleep, my lab tests results are excellent. I've been on a very good health kick since the beginning of January. I'm within 5 lbs of my ideal weight, my fasting blood glucose is 80s - 90s (non-diabetic) and I enjoy being stress-free at home. If blood type does have any affect on Covid-19, I'm good on that front, too.

Of course, I will continue to take all of the preventative measures without fail. I just don't think I'm in the 30% - 62% chance of dying range if I do get it.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

14. Keep in mind those estimated chances are based on if you actually get it and

get quite sick from it. And a lot of people, even in the older age groups, are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Which is a mixed blessing, because those people are extremely unlikely to die, although they could unwittingly spread it.

My guess that part of the reason that there's a near doubling of the chance of dying between the two age groups does have to do with people acquiring health compromises over time. Like diabetes and high blood pressure.

[ARPad95]

18. My husband will be 62 this year and he's only at 5% risk of dying because he doesn't have any

other health risk factors. He did have 1 episode of A-fib a few years ago, but otherwise doesn't have heart disease/hypertension. I agree with you that well-controlled diabetes and hypertension definitely lowers the risk substantially.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. Even in non Covid-19 circumstances,

people tend to vastly overestimate their chances of dying.

Here's an interesting graphic: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/06/08/how-many-people-are-left-from-the-year-you-were-born-3/2/

It is almost two years old, so I'd read each year as two years earlier. For instance, I was born in 1948, so I'll look to the numbers for 1946 to apply to my birth year now. Some 80% of us are still alive.

For your husband, whose birth year is 1958, 83% are still alive.

It does look as though someone made some kind of math goof along the way as it shows an anomalous drop in those still alive who were born in 1946. I'd just ignore that year.

Here's another good statistical table from Social Security. It looks as if they haven't updated it since 2016, so just look back four years for a given age. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Yes, the corona virus has somewhat increased chances of dying, but not in the vast amounts that people seem to think. At least not so far. I suppose it could mutate horribly and become as bad as one of the things we think of as incredibly death-dealing, like smallpox, which overall had a death rate of 30%, although one, thankfully not very common version, killed 95% of its victims.

Here's a chart of diseases by fatality rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

[Celerity]

32. Taking the CDC raw data up until the week ending May, 2, 2020, then extrapolating out

for the new deaths since then, your age cohort (55 to 64, which is around 43 million people) has had a death rate of 1 death per every 4533 people as of right now. As you are 59, it probably is less than 1 per 5500 or even 1 per 6000 for your exact age (I do not have enough deep data to give you an exact answer for a 59yo, sorry)

Those are the death rates per the total population age cohort, NOT the lethality rate if you actually are exposed to the virus.

More info on all age cohorts (and source links) here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13405885

[LAS14]

11. THANKS!!! This is absolutely the best article I've read during this whole COVID-19 time!!! nt

[EllieBC]

15. Regarding health conditions do they mean ones out of control

Lots of people have hypertension but it’s controlled by medications so if you were go check their bp it would be in good range.

[LeftInTX]

17. Fascinating!!

Thank you so much for this!

It was what my gut was telling me, but this has been quantified.

Excellent

[LAS14]

21. Would you ask your acquaintance to pass on a request for an equally illuminating...

... article about surface transmission?

tia
las

[imavoter]

31. I'll pass it on.

Good idea.
I have no pull, though.

[imavoter]

36. Ok, I asked.

My friend said he hadn't talked to him in a while, but
didn't know why he couldn't ask...so maybe it will get some traction.

Good suggestion. Thanks

[LAS14]

43. Thanks! nt

[smirkymonkey]

23. Kicked and bookmarked!

[mnhtnbb]

37. Gives me a 31.72% chance of dying from it.

But, I doubt it really is that high. I do have mild asthma. Checking the chronic respiratory disease I'm sure elevated my risk.

[imavoter]

38. Looks like the whole thing is dedicated to Covid19

May be worth a deep dive.
There's already dozens of entries.

[imavoter]

39. **update** I found one about surfaces

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/how-do-we-kill-sars-cov2-on-surfaces?fbclid=IwAR0udl5Vuk-yGnL-YIxkPtL5Su0OKuYUUshvAInvNUk523DFteU4kPeMXDw

[Baclava]

40. Worst case scenario "Indoors with closely spaced people", beaches are safer than dining , I knew it!

Grocery shopping in small shops with infected sneezers would be really bad too.