Latest estimate: -34.9 percent -- May 8, 2020

[bucolic_frolic]

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -34.9 percent on May 8, down from -17.6 percent on May 5. After this morning's releases of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -21.7 percent and -22.1 percent, respectively, to -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively. Also, the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 1.9 percent to -6.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.82 percentage points to 1.62 percentage points.

[irisblue]

1. 😳🤪😳🤪

[roamer65]

2. I think if it goes below annualized 10 pct GDP contraction it is a depression.

[empedocles]

4. plus 3 years

'A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent. in a given year. Depressions are relatively less frequent than milder recessions, and tend to be accompanied by high unemployment and low inflation.' - Investopedia

[roamer65]

5. It may be close.

Time will tell.

In 1930, they thought it was a recession. Little did they know what was coming.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Q1 was -4.8%

I don't think this was a big enough story. -4.8% when the effects of Covid-19 weren't really even measured yet. We already had a weakening economy.

Really good to see Biden starting to bring this up, the Coronavirus just exposed the weakness of the Trump economy.