HEALTH AFFAIRS (online mag): Covid19 "infection fatality rate" is 1.3%

[Bucky]

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455

HEALTH AFFAIRS > AHEAD OF PRINT
Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States
by Anirban Basu
MAY 07, 2020

ABSTRACT
Knowing the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 infections is essential for the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data through April 20, 2020, we fit a statistical model to COVID-19 case fatality rates over time at the US county level to estimate the COVID-19 IFR among symptomatic cases (IFR-S) as time goes to infinity. The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%). County-specific rates varied from 0.5% to 3.6%. The overall IFR for COVID-19 should be lower when we account for cases that remain and recover without symptoms. When used with other estimating approaches, our model and our estimates can help disease and policy modelers to obtain more accurate predictions for the epidemiology of the disease and the impact of alternative policy levers to contain this pandemic.

Editor’s Note: This Fast Track "Ahead Of Print" article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.

See full articles for details--there's a lot of mathy stuff in there I don't pretend to grasp. However, this is hopeful news, based on the number of infections that don't get reported because their lack of severity allows some cases to go unreported or even undetected. Of course a highly infectious disease that a huge number of people may get will still exact a devastating cost if it "only" kills at a 1.3% rate. But this is a serious downtick from earlier estimates of 3-4% mortality rates.

[JCMach1]

1. Total estimation as we don't know # of unsymptomatic

Given its still a guess we are still at step 1.

We can guess not as deadly as SARS but a good deal more infectious

[Bucky]

2. I think epidemiologists have another word for it besides "guess". Like "estimate" or "model"...

But yeah, it's an educated guess.

[JCMach1]

8. The 'estimates' vary pretty widely...

I have seen everything from 0.8-3.9...

[roamer65]

3. Given the amount of unreported cases that have resolved I think 1 pct is close.

[0rganism]

4. so this suggests we have around 6.4M infected not 1.4M

by now, someone should have told Tangeranus he can reduce the death rate through increased testing volume. apparently such messages fell on deaf ears and empty skulls

[Bucky]

6. Of course there could be a significant undercount of deaths, too

Probably not as severe as the 1:4.5 ratio in confirming Covid19 infection rates. But it could be as bad as a 20% undercount.

The truth is won't know the exact numbers for a long time--and we might never know because so many deaths may have involved Coronavirus plus an underlying condition.

[0rganism]

7. we need a lot more testing, that's for damn sure

and states like Florida skewing mortality results are only making things worse for all of us

[ProfessorGAC]

9. I've Seen Estimates Of 8x Confirmed

So there are still differences amongst the professionals.
8x would suggest around 14 million infected, & 100k deaths.
Even at that, the mortality rate would be 0.7%, or 8-10x worse than typical flu.

[CountAllVotes]

5. righto!

Uh huh!

Yes! Yes! Yes!

Just a little flu, that's all!