Breaking on CNN -projections from the model touted by the WH

[malaise]

have increased to 147,000 deaths by August 4th.
I still think that's low given the current number of victims from this disaster

Damn!

[Stallion]

1. A+

[applegrove]

2. .

[uponit7771]

3. K&R, ... and that's with adequate testing in place TODAY

[ananda]

4. A LOT of deaths are not being reported.

Fact.

[malaise]

5. Fauci said so today

I think the Con slipped yesterday and dropped to unexpected numbers - 90,000 and 100,000. Then he corrected himself and said 80,000.
If it's 100,000 now it will be closer to 300,000 by August.
No Democratic President would still be in office after something like this.

[brewens]

13. Trump didn't like that recent model he claimed didn't factor in mitigation. He was lying or

didn't know what he was talking about. It did factor in mitigation. The only thing is, we won't see the mitigation that model included because Trump is undermining it.

[ananda]

20. That's what he does.

Trump literally cannot face the truth about himself
or what he's doing to the country.

[abqtommy]

6. One death is too many, a million tears are not enough...

[Quixote1818]

7. Vietnam X 2 in about 1/20th the amount of time. nt

[mopinko]

8. my wager remain 1m, and likely by the 4th of july.

[Blue_true]

17. That seems way high for that timeframe.

If we even come close to 1m in that time, we will look like fools to the rest of the world.

[mopinko]

19. happy to take your wager.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9. A model that has consistently underestimated deaths

Although it has been re-forecasting higher estimates since some states started to re-open, the IHME projections have consistently under-estimated the number of deaths in the United States. I suspect that is the main reason that the WH keeps using it.

[Iliyah]

10. Hell, the rate the deaths are going . ..

it will be 90,000 by this Sunday. A lot of the states that are opening have not even reached it's peak. Hopefully NYS, CA, MI, Ill, NJ, WA and other states have or will soon reached their plateau.

Opening too soon can cause another major shut down, which in turn would be the worst scenario economically wise.

Fellow Americans dying from COVID-19 is

[Lucinda]

11. ...

[mnmoderatedem]

12. time for him to get the Sharpie out

[Loki Liesmith]

14. The model was an interesting failed idea

Naive curve fits can be a three edged sword.

[onecaliberal]

15. :

[brush]

16. And somehow the idiotically inept WH thinks 147,000 deaths by then...

makes them look good. They live in their own up-side-down. bizzarro world, which going by that model still leaves three months to election day, and with a very conservative estimate of 30k deaths a month, would be some 240,000 deaths by election day on Nov. 3.

Hallelujah!

Are they all snorting Adderol in the trump WH?

[ProfessorGAC]

18. The Upper End Of The Projection Is 227,000

By August 4.
The low end of the model is a bit under 114,000.