The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

[Newest Reality]

I am presenting this as one of the better compilations on COVID-19 and contagion. It makes a good reference and provides sound guidelines.

Of course, one feels like donning a hazmat suit after this, but it does emphasize taking the proper precautions and illustrates the need to ignore the reckless and toxic information and counterproductive incentives that RW propaganda is spewing copiously now as if it were a disease in itself, but that's another topic.

First, credentials:
Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari.

Dr. Bromage’s research focuses on the evolution of the immune system, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protection from infectious disease, and the design and use of vaccines to control infectious disease in animals. He also focuses on designing diagnostic tools to detect biological and chemical threats in the environment in real-time.

Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches courses in Immunology and Infectious disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.


Intro:

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.

(as of May 3rd)

So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

[dawg day]

1. Good info!

I scrolled through the comments (mostly asking questions) and there were two in a row of Trumpers saying this is all a -- well, not a hoax, but no worse than the flu. They were long and tendentious and didn't address her points at all.

People like them are so invested in dismissing the risks, and it's all to prop up Trump... but it's really very bad of me to think that maybe they should personally experience the results of doing what they say--

It's like all those anti-vaxxers who were themselves vaccinated (because their parents loved them) and who are very happy to rely on the rest of the world being immunized so their children are safe.

They call this "herd immunity," though of course it isn't "herd' at all, because the immunity is conferred now by most people getting a shot, not most people getting the disease (which WAS the immunity when I was a kid, and it didn't work-- for centuries, measles affected most children in exposed areas, and it never died out or even diminished until there was a vaccine).

These Covid-is-basically-a-fake also talk about "herd immunity," but I don't think they have a clue that every year the virus is back, and every year there are more people who have no immunity and will get sick. Also, there's really no certainty that Covid infection brings with it immunity for even a few weeks much less a lifetime (and, as I said, even with measles, where getting it DID confer lifelong immunity, that did nothing to restrict the disease).

Arrgh!

[Newest Reality]

2. Thanks!

Well said. You covered some good points.

And yes: ARRRRGGGG!

We have to come to terms with the idea that gullibility, delusional idealizations and alternate realities can be a group thing. Part of that, (I think it is a complex issue for sociologists, etc.) may be fear and trying to escape from or avoid the implications and unpleasantness of what consensus reality brings.

That may be consoling to some and provide ways for certain mindsets to cope, (denial, for instance) but in the long-run and for the collective, it can be disastrous, especially since they can tend to dig their heels in and cling to their confirmation biases the more you attempt to reason with them.

[tanyev]

3. They are confusing 'herd immunity' with 'thinning the herd'.