Wisconsin has about 11,000 known cases currently. FDA says the actual numbers are at least 10 times

[Quixote1818]

Last edited Thu May 14, 2020, 08:35 PM - Edit history (2)

as high based on antibody testing. This means around 100,000 people or more have covid19 in Wisconsin probably higher in the bigger cities, though probably quite a few have recovered. Still that means about 1 in 60 people in Wisconsin may have or have had it. You have a bar crammed with 75 people, there is a VERY GOOD chance 1 person has Covid19 and is spreading it around. A bar in Wisconsin is the LAST place I would want to got to right now.


Editing with a link to where I got the stat of actual cases being 10 times higher than known cases since so many are asking:

Coronavirus cases are likely 10 to 20 times higher in US than reported, former FDA chief Gottlieb says

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-cases-are-likely-10-to-20-times-higher-in-us-than-reported-former-fda-chief-gottlieb-says.html

[lapfog_1]

1. This won't stop until 60 to 80 percent of the entire population is infected

and somewhere between 2M and 10M people die.

[Nature Man]

2. That's a sobering thought

[lapfog_1]

5. There is but ONE way to have stopped the virus

and we lost that back in late January and early Feb... and that would be widespread testing... not of people who show symptoms... but everyone, follow by strict quarantine and contact tracing.

after we lost that... then my more radical plan of 8 weeks of "STOP" everything except power and water and sewers and communications. EVERYTHING... everyone stock up on food ( subsidized ) and stay home... no going anywhere except to the hospital. No payments of any bills... no collection... no wages unless you can work remotely.

8 weeks later test everyone... then go back to plan A.

but we are too stupid to do that.

Now, with only limited treatments, no immunity, no vaccine... and the end of staying home... 2M by the end of next year IF we are lucky and the virus doesn't mutate into something worse. Around 1% of infections.

[Nature Man]

7. This would have required a Star Trek level of global cooperation

to defeat this virus.

I agree with you.

Creditors are losing their "we're all in this together" marketing BS.

Wolves will be at the door by May 31 after all the calls I made today to try and get a sense of what creditor plans are.

No one is buying anything though, my revenue has flatlined.

[Atticus]

3. Do you have a source for that? We have family in Wisconsin. nt

[Quixote1818]

11. For the actual numbers being 10 times higher I do

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-cases-are-likely-10-to-20-times-higher-in-us-than-reported-former-fda-chief-gottlieb-says.html

[Atticus]

12. Thanks. nt

[luv2fly]

4. Curious who the "they" is?

I'd love to see the source for this, I'm not seeing it anywhere.

[Quixote1818]

9. Here you go

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-cases-are-likely-10-to-20-times-higher-in-us-than-reported-former-fda-chief-gottlieb-says.html

[ChangeNHope]

6. I'd like to know the source of this as well...

because if there is data supporting this 10x number, that means nearly 15 million Americans would already be infected?

Is this a Wisconsin thing? National? Global?

[luv2fly]

8. Wisconsin, my state

The laughing stock of the country, that is the laughing stock of the world.

Badger pride my ass.

[Quixote1818]

10. Here you go

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-cases-are-likely-10-to-20-times-higher-in-us-than-reported-former-fda-chief-gottlieb-says.html

[ChangeNHope]

14. Thank you!

That's that whole US. And it was April 21. with ~740k Positive. we have nearly 1.5 Million now. at 10-20x cited in the article that means we have 15-30 million infected in the US.

That is a whole lot of infection goin' on.

But if there are that many that have been infected, doesn't that mean the death rate much lower?

[Igel]

13. Your example is off.

It means that if 1 in 60 has or has had it, in a room with 75 people one person may have had it or might still have it, might no longer be infectious or might still be infectious. That's the best you can say--might or might not, but at some point was.

When the guy says "cases" he means "reported positives"--he doesn't mean they're currently sick. He means that since the virus showed up in WI, that number of people have been infected. Maybe in February. Maybe March. Maybe April.

At this point, given the area under the curve, it's more likely that one person is *not* infectious.

Of course, the number may actually be smaller, if it's closer to the only "1 in 20 cases" being detected.

And given how transmission spreads by network, I don't know that I trust any antibody test that doesn't have a large random sample.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Saw 10 to 12 Last Week, Too

I forget what body estimated that, though.
Gupta on CNN said a month ago that we should multiply by 8. And his was an early conservative guess.
So, I think we can safely assume it is, in fact, at least 10.