Biden Leads Trump In Florida - 53% to 47%

[writes3000]

A new Florida Atlantic University BEPI poll finds Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with 53% support among Floridians while President Trump gets 47%. This is a reversal of sorts from the March FAU poll when Trump led Biden 51% to 49%. This survey was conducted May 8-12 with a sample size of n=928, +/-3.1%.

https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-leads-trump-in-florida.php

https://politicalwire.com/2020/05/15/biden-holds-lead-in-florida/

[Wounded Bear]

1. Good news, but a lot of time left...nt

[LenaBaby61]

15. Good news, but a lot of time left.

Tons of time left for murderous fat ass, his party of putin, DeRacist and that thieving alien Scott to fashion a strategy to steal Florida again.

[Blue Owl]

2. Trumps diaper just exploded

[NewJeffCT]

3. Perhaps pushing to kill off grandma and grandpa

to re-open the economy was not the best strategy to win over the hearts and minds of our seniors?

[writes3000]

4. Exactly.

[lpbk2713]

5. Nobody polled me.

So that's one more vote for Joe.

[awesomerwb1]

6. Very early

but also consider Biden hasn't done any campaigning yet(in comparison) while the POS murderer has a rally every day.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Wow.

The fact that this poll was 51-49 Trump 2 months ago is the big story. That big of a swing is really something. From +2 to -6.

[Yavin4]

8. A very positive sign for Biden. Trump cannot win without FLA.

This forces him to expend time and resources in the state, leaving less time for PA, MI, WISC, and AZ. Trump has to win pretty much all of the swing states in order for him to win.

[jimfields33]

9. Don't count on Florida yet

In 2018, both governor and senator races were polled for a democratic win for both and both lost. The numbers were similar to these. Either it’s hard to poll, people lie or cheating. Probably the last one but never any arrests.

[Yavin4]

11. Not saying that Biden will win it.

I am saying that Trump will have to expend more resources in the state than he anticipated which leaves less time and resources for the other swing states.

[jimfields33]

12. That is true. Although the thought of him here is sick!

[Amishman]

14. Hard to poll would be my guess.

My first thought is about retirees who split time between multiple states, and only return to Florida around election time when the weather up north gets too cold.

Florida is friendlier on taxes, so the snow birds are incentivized to have official residence and thus voter registration there.

Well off retirees vote Republican.

That being said, the 2018 polls that got it wrong still showed a much tighter race than this latest Trump/Biden poll

[Wounded Bear]

17. Florida and Arizona gets us to 272...

Assuming the current 270towin map of situation.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/l4LOG

[Yavin4]

18. FLA+ PA or FLA+MI does it as well.

Pretty much if Biden wins FLA, game over. How?

If Biden keeps Hillary's states, which he will, that means he starts with 232 EV. Give him FLA, and that gives him 261 leaving 277 EVs remaining in total. Trump would have to win ALL of the remaining swing states.

[OrlandoDem2]

10. Look. For anyone not familiar with FL, there are a lot of factors here.

First, FL has about 10 different media markets. That’s a blessing and curse. You don’t win Fl by walking door to door which helps Biden but he needs $$$ for TV.

Second, for a Democrat to win means he/she needs a 10 point lead. High single digit leads for the Democrat means there’s a tie and low single digit leads means a narrow loss (see Andrew Gillum).

Third, the Florida Democratic Party is totally and completely inept. Democratic parties in ruby red states like KA and UT are are more effective. Yes, Obama won twice here but he had an absolute machine. He won because of his apparatus, not the FDP. The FDP is horrible. We routinely lose statewide elections and it often fails to field candidates in competitive seats for state legislature. We have had an all GOP government since 1998, aside from a few meaningless cabinet posts miraculously won by Dems.

All of that means this lead could very well be squandered. The GOP in FL is extremely sophisticated and disciplined. They know how to identify voters and get them to the polls to drive up margins in red areas of FL and cut marginal losses in blue area of FL. The FDP is horribly inept and incompetent so such clever campaigns are beyond their grasp.

So, I will be happy for a Biden won obviously but unless something changes soon in tactics and strategy, count on a FL loss.

I really hope someone highly ranked in the FDP is reading this.

[Nancy Waterman]

13. Is this registered voters?

The issue in Florida is who will be allowed to vote. If everyone who wants to vote, can vote, Biden will win. But that is a big question.

[helpisontheway]

16. I don't trust the voters in Florida. I remember the polls from the last governor's

race. They voted for a Trump clone.

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. K&R

[Scurrilous]

20. K&R