Poll: Biden holds 6-point lead over Trump in Florida

[applegrove]

Poll: Biden holds 6-point lead over Trump in Florida

BY J. EDWARD MOREN at the Hill

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/497978-poll-biden-holds-6-point-lead-over-trump-in-florida

"SNIP.....


Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 6-point lead over President Trump in Florida, according to a Florida Atlantic University poll released Friday. 

The poll, which was conducted May 8-12 and reported a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, showed Biden at 53 percent support while Trump got 47 percent. 

In a March poll from the same source, Trump was slightly ahead of Biden, 51 percent to 49. In his 2016 election against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Trump won Florida by just 1.2 percentage points. 

However, 53 percent of the 928 voters surveyed said they expect Trump to win the election in November, while 46 percent think Biden will prevail.

.....SNIP"

[muntrv]

1. GOTV, my friends.

Or MOTV (Mail Out The Vote).

[GulfCoast66]

2. No surprise to me. If he picks Harris it will go up.

And stay up. That is the ticket to win Florida.

Obama/Biden won here both times and the demographics keep getting worse for republicans.

[OrlandoDem2]

4. Unless Amendment 4 is finalized in the courts, I'm not sure of your assertion.

We get tons of older white people moving into The Villages every month. They are 90% GOP. That offsets any potential demographic changes from an otherwise graying demographic while the youth demographic is more and more made up of POC.

If Amendment 4 is ultimately upheld and former convicted felons get their right to vote restored then that may change things. But they would have to actually register to vote or the FDP would have to identify these people and reach out. The FDP has got to be one of the worst run state Democratic parties in America. It’s record in statewide elections for the last 20 year is abysmal.

[elevator]

6. Actually

Biden's #s with senior voters are in the sixties in many polls. A big reversal from 2016.

[OrlandoDem2]

10. Let's hope that holds. The FL GOP is extremely effective at appealing to voters at the last moment.

[GulfCoast66]

8. You scenario is true and totally played out in the 18 governors race.

And obviously we nominated a flawed candidate. Recent events have proven that.

But Biden’s numbers with Seniors are way better than we have seen here in decades.

And trump pretty much writing off their lives as extendible is not playing well. Even my republican mother in KY is leaning Biden and I never thought I would see that.

And yeah, the old folks keep coming from the Midwest. But they also keep dying. I agree without the large retirement communities we would be purple or even light Blue.

[OrlandoDem2]

9. It's time to dust off the Lawton Chiles playbook in 1994.

He beat Jeb Bush running a gubernatorial campaign that attracted seniors to the Democratic Party by pointing out Jeb’s Social Security plans. If it wasn’t that issue it was something else. Can’t completely recall.

This would be effective because POC are disproportionately impacted by COVID as well. A single, well-written ad that reminds voters of Trump’s cavalier attitude toward the pandemic could appeal to senior citizens and POC. Democrats need to drive up the POC vote and cut margins as much as possible with seniors.

[GulfCoast66]

11. The base of our party here are African Americans. Specifically African American females.

Harris on the ticket will be seen as an acknowledgement of that fact and electrify the base. And unlike Gillum who pushed moderates to DeSantis, especially after the Sanders endorsement fiasco, moderate seniors are comfortable with him. The ads the republicans ran tying him to Bernie the Socialist were devastating. Plus, He carried lots of ethical baggage out of Tallahassee and after last month’s events I can’t totally discount them. Of course he got my vote, but we choose poorly. And he almost pulled it off.

Had we nominated Graham we would have a Democratic Governor. Or that is my opinion anyway.

Biden/Harris is our best chance here. And a good chance in my opinion.

See you are in Orlando. I’m in Clermont. Hope you are safe and all.

Have a nice evening.

[OrlandoDem2]

12. I agree on all accounts. I voted for Gwen. I'm old enough to remember Bob Graham.

I was hoping to revive those days. I think she would’ve won also.

The stupid Hamilton ticket fiasco is what stopped Gillum. Gwen didn’t have the baggage.

I have been saying that the backbone of the entire Democratic Party is black females. Harris would be great but she may get eviscerated for a lack of national or international experience. Let’s face it. She has been a state Senator. That said, I really like her.

I wish there were a black female official from the mid west elected in statewide elections to rebuild the blue wall.

Our own Val Demings might be an option given her connection to the swing portion of a swing state. The I-4 corridor is very important.

Hello from East Orange County. I hope all is well.

[GulfCoast66]

14. I agree except Harris has been a US Senator for a full term. Or close enough.

I like Val Demings. Like Harris she has a law enforcement background. But criticizing Harris lack of experience while touting Val seem disingenuous. She is a first term house member.

And we lost last time because the big cities in the Midwest that were not energized and did not get out the vote. I think Harris changes that. Florida as well. I’ve watched for years as African American female carried our party in the south. Now that it appears we may be about to have a potential Southern breakthrough I hope we pick someone representative of our base. Plus as much as I loved Hillary 30 years of right wing attacks, and even MSM attacks had their effect.

With Harris the republicans can’t ignore Georgia( which i dont see us winning) and solidifies VA and brings N.C. along. Plus Florida of course.

Nice chatting. Stay safe.


On edit. Harris has only been a US Senator since 18. But was California AG for 7 years. That’s way more than a state Senator.

Have a nice evening.

[OrlandoDem2]

3. For anyone not familiar with Florida campaigns here is my commentary.

First, FL has about 10 different media markets. That’s a blessing and curse. You don’t win Fl by walking door to door which helps Biden but he needs $$$ for TV.

Second, for a Democrat to win means he/she needs a 10 point lead. High single digit leads for the Democrat means there’s a tie and low single digit leads means a narrow loss (see Andrew Gillum).

Third, the Florida Democratic Party is totally and completely inept. Democratic parties in ruby red states like KA and UT are are more effective. Yes, Obama won twice here but he had an absolute machine. He won because of his apparatus, not the FDP. The FDP is horrible. We routinely lose statewide elections and it often fails to field candidates in competitive seats for state legislature. We have had an all GOP government since 1998, aside from a few meaningless cabinet posts miraculously won by Dems.

All of that means this lead could very well be squandered. The GOP in FL is extremely sophisticated and disciplined. They know how to identify voters and get them to the polls to drive up margins in red areas of FL and cut marginal losses in blue area of FL. The FDP is horribly inept and incompetent so such clever campaigns are beyond their grasp.

So, I will be happy for a Biden won obviously but unless something changes soon in tactics and strategy, count on a FL loss.

I really hope someone highly ranked in the FDP is reading this.

[elevator]

7. Clinton lost by 1.7%.

Al Gore won Florida. I like Biden's chances a lot.

[bluecollar2]

16. Can't agree more...

Moved to Florida 3 years ago due to necessity from Texas.

Registered Democrat and contacted both the state and county parties offering my help/volunteerism.

Results: crickets...

Screw the party....no time
..the democrats running on my ballot will get my vote...but my money will go to national candidates in AZ., Ky., and Maine.

The FL. Democratic party is a joke.

[Cha]

5. KR!

[Aristus]

13. As soon as readership for The Hill goes down,

they'll publish another poll showing the race 'tightening'...

[edhopper]

15. with a Repug Governor

he needs 10 points to overcome cheating.