This Is Why Team Trump and Republicans Are Freaking Out

[writes3000]

John Weaver, one of the founders of the Lincoln Project, has posted this...

“ Of course @realdonaldtrump is insane & an imbecile, but the crazed rat is cornered. Here is one reason why. Based on leaks from his "team." 2020 election forecast...

https://www.270towin.com/maps/xGzXg

Link to tweet

Right now, their internal polling shows Biden winning over Trump, 334 to 141.

[D_Master81]

1. Beautiful

Now just make it happen

[Cha]

2. Steady As We GO!

[LymphocyteLover]

86. Yes-- this is awesome, but we still need to do the work and GOTV

[Blue Owl]

3. Someone needs to project that map onto trump tower

n/t

[sprinkleeninow]

31. Why, yes❣ 👍

[Person of Interest]

41. That would be wonderful!!!! 👍

[fierywoman]

75. ... and on to the Trump Hotel in DC

[LymphocyteLover]

87. LOL, yes!!!

[Me.]

4. But Biden Is Hidden In A Basement & Not Doing Anything

Chatter, Chatter, Chatter

[cannabis_flower]

20. When your opponent

Is shooting himself on a daily basis, the best thing to do is sit back and watch the show.

[nolabear]

23. He's actually not though. He's building a coalition and getting out there more.

Sadly Spanky gets to hide his campaigning behind supposed COVID-19 updates and being such a shitshow he’s irresistible. But I fervently hope the momentum will build. We need prime time, brilliant programming.

[sprinkleeninow]

34. I'm Biden my time. 😁 When the fullness of time has presented itself,

Joe and Co. will pull out all the stops.

I emailed Mike!, Mike!, Mike! to drop some big 💰 in assisting Biden's camp.

He may be doing that shortly from what I heard.

But not bc of lil ole me!!

[Me.]

32. Exactly

don't the whiners ask themselves why Biden is so far ahead in the polls

[Hekate]

71. I keep reading that very thing at DU, so it must be true

[Me.]

72. Well Didn't Overrated Maggie Haberman

Hint at that, as well as many others? This election's version of 'but her emails'. They don't seem to understand how dire things are. I heard someone talk about how they have to stop treating him like he's a regular president and reporting every word he says.

[Newest Reality]

5. That's encouraging, to say the least.

It does correspond with the cornered rat, whom we all know is a real, rabid rat and not just a poser at it.

I am braced for the desperation to bring them to act out the worst they can dream up, and that's not being hyperbolic. While it may shock and disgust us and do some major damage along the way, they are going to have to be even more blatant and that will serve to expose their tactics even more due to recklessness.

I am counting on a larger amount of people to see what we are really dealing with and if that is the case, the above will be working against the Republican death cult, and that recognition will give us more momentum and help to save the people from a tyrant and a regime.

[JGug1]

14. Braced For Desperation

We saw some of that last night when Junior made his absurd comments.....damn, they were so bad I have blocked them out and have to look them up before continuing. Oh yeah, he asserted that Democrats are rooting for Corona Virus to kill millions of people here so that his dadda will be defeated. Junior apparently has his own thoughts about running for President. His problem is that he is just as dumb as his dadda but doesn't have his dadda's street smarts or his showmanship.

[lunatica]

19. Or his dadda's cult

All he has is his father’s ass print on his face and lips.

[sprinkleeninow]

35. A good slogan: 'Re-elect Dumpty, The Cornered Rat'

[bdamomma]

66. Or the

Koresh/Trump cult.

[sprinkleeninow]

79. 'Re-elect the tяump KKKult'

[SCantiGOP]

6. Wouldn't pay too much attention to this

This is from the page of some random guy who has drawn his own map at 270towin.com based on what he calls "leaks from the 'team.'"
Their site as of now has it at 308-230, and Texas and NC are solid red.

ON EDIT: when I checked the site it loaded the last map I had configured. Their current map shows it as 232-204 Dem advantage, with 6 states worth 102 electoral votes in the TossUp category.

[gristy]

17. This C'mon folks. Let's keep our critical reading and thinking skills in gear!

This ^^^^

[KPN]

25. Right. Not to mention 270toWin also had Hillary winning over 300 electoral votes in their last

run -- which I think was election day.

Last thing we need to do is get confident and behave smugly. We need to work the election like we are losing and our life depends on winning -- because our lives do depend on it!

[WinstonSmith4740]

29. Totally agree

We have to approach this election as though we're losing, or have a razor thin margin. We can't get over confident so people don't get out and vote. The Republicans will make it as difficult as possible, if not flat out impossible, for lots of people to vote. The Russians will be involved again. Facebook will inflame the mouth breathers. The turnout in November has to be big enough to overcome all of that shit.

[Tiger8]

84. Exactly! Consider we're dead even - ALL HANDS ON DECK

Just a win is not enough to drive a stake through the heart of Trumpism.

Blow Republicans back to 1932......and keep them out of office for decades.

[oldsoftie]

83. When you win 3 states by 80k total votes, those projections could've easily been true.

Had more democrats turned out to vote, they would have been.

Now when a poll is WAY off, i take notice. But trump barely won. The polls showing Clinton winning were wrong, yes, but they werent wrong by much

[Fla Dem]

33. Not breaking out the champagne for a while. Was already to celebrate HRC's and BOOM!

We cannot get complacent. Between the virus keeping people from the polls, foreign interference, Repub Governors and state legislatures not allowing mail in voting, while the numbers may look formidable, anything could hapen.

[Squidly]

53. Not breaking out the champagne till hes out of the white house

Until then, gonna fight like my life depends on it!!

[sprinkleeninow]

36. NC may not be solid red. Pretty in pink mb. 😁

[SCantiGOP]

43. That is correct

I had configured a map based on my guesses, and I had picked NC as red. I think it will be one of the closest states in the nation this fall.

[sprinkleeninow]

46. 😉

Last edited Mon May 18, 2020, 12:57 AM - Edit history (1)

'The Little Engine That Could'
Book by Watty Piper

Editing: I meant NC by the message in this book. Not y'all!

[Demsrule86]

45. The polls and maps are very encouraging actually.

[GaYellowDawg]

60. Well, shit. It's not. Here's the consensus map.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

There's absolutely no way we take Texas. If that state can elect Ted Cruz over Beto, then there's no way they EVER go Democratic. They've got the system rigged in Florida, so count that for Trump, too.

We MUST win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and one of Arizona or Wisconsin to win. Right now, I'm not sure we can.

[Faux pas]

7. Kicketty Kickin'

[John Fante]

8. The senate is likely ours if this holds.

[ffr]

9. Well, let's see if we get get Biden 400 then.

[Celerity]

27. If TX & OH go Blue 400 is possible IF we also flip any ONE of these big reaches MO or AK or GA

Last edited Sun May 17, 2020, 08:28 PM - Edit history (2)

here is the absolute most EV's we can get, many of these are massives reaches, any Reds left are 99% impossible (I can see people arguing that best case should make UT, KS, LA, and IN Blue (457-81), but that is pushing it too far, hell MY best case scenario here is batshit optimistic






here is my 'gun to my head' EV count atm (this is based off fair non manipulated (systemically) elections, so is probably a pipe dream), in other words, this is what I think the election will actually be (again atm)




the good thing is (as long as we WIN ME-2 and NE-2)
we can lose BOTH FL and AZ and still win (by 1 EV)
if we lose either or both NE-2 and ME-2 (we lost both last time) Trump wins if we also lose both AZ and FL on this map, so we would have to flip IA or WI (the easiest) or NC

[smirkymonkey]

61. +1000

Thanks for that!

[Celerity]

63. if we win 270-268 due to flipping NE-2 and ME-2, expect Trump to go extra special bonkers

about NE-2. If no split EV's ME-2 would not go to him, but NE-2 would never go to us.

A 269-269 (assigning ME-2 and NE-2 as the other 48 states + DC do) tie means he wins as the Rethugs will control the bare minimum (26) state delegations in the US House needed in the House (and they might have more than 26) to put him over the top. WI and FL are the only 2 states we can flip from them, and those are so gerrymandered (especially WI) that it will take a miracle to pull it off.

Trump will sue and say that split EV's are illegal (yes, the states do control it per the Constitution, but if the SCOTUS say it is illegal, we are fucked IF they go full stop sell-out, which I do NOT see Roberts allowing)

There are like 5 or 6 plausible ways to get to 269-269 naturally.

That would be the worst possible way to lose, as it is via an arcane process that is corrupted due to Rethug gerrymandering. There will be violence, probably bad violence, especially IF the Rethugs also hold the Senate and take back the House, as that means doom for the nation. Trump and the Rethus will wipe out 5 times as much of our protections this time than in his first 4 years, and the SCOTUS probably goes 7-2 hard RW plus Thomas replaced with a younger model of RW thug. Only hope would be to flip the Senate in 2022 (very possible) but that means RBG and Breyer both need to hold on for 2 and a half more years (and all on pure speculation of a Dem Senate flipping victory in 2022.)

The country cannot take 4 more years of Trump (just based of the federal courts and the SCOTUS, let alone all his other shit), and if he sneaks in via a 269-269 stolen (via gerrymandering) House vote, that might be the straw that breaks the camel's back, especially if he is CRUSHED in the popular vote, far more than Clinton won by.

The longer I study the US Constitution and how it has evolved and been interpreted over the long sweep the time, the less I like it. It was written under certain assumptions that have now been gamed by the Rethugs since the late 1960's. The very institution of the US Senate was always a long wave ticking Constitutional time bomb. By the early 2030's 70% of the Senate will be controlled by just 30% of the population, and that 30% is FAR older, whiter, more fundie religious, poorer, rural, less educated, and more RW reactionary than the other 70% of the US population. also, the entire POTUS/Executive branch is FAR too powerful now, it truly has turned into Arthur M. Schlesinger's 'Imperial Presidency' over the past 50 plus years. It needs to be reigned in, a LOT. Look at how much utterly (and long lasting) DAMAGE one horrid human sitting in the White House has done both domestically AND globally.

[smirkymonkey]

69. Thank you!

Very thoughtful and informative post. I appreciate it. I will revisit later, but I am going to try to get to bed at a reasonable time tonight for once so I can get up in the morning.

Thanks again!

[Celerity]

70. yw!

I am always looking at the data and the trends for POTUS, Senate, and starting to work on the House.

Get some sleep smirky!

Hugz,

Cel <3

[TheFourthMind]

10. Love to know how much oxygen the blue states are breathing into the red states to keep them alive.

Ungrateful bastards. Fortunately much of that confederate-red is land, while much of the blue is people.

[JGug1]

11. Biden Landslide?

We have to stayed scared. Clinton was >90% probability of winning up to the last days in 2016. Still, this is encouraging and if Trump keeps being Trump, it could get better.

[lastlib]

18. If Putin keeps being Putin, and Dems keep being complacent.....

we (and all Americans) go down in flames for another tRump term--one which may not end until he croaks, at which point (insert Don Jr./Ivanka/Jared here) takes over.

I agree with your first sentence, and respectfully suggest we ignore your last one, and just keep working our asses off to BURY that futhermucker. Hopes and wishes and unicorns and leprechauns don't buy us out of this; only by working harder and smarter than we ever have will we prevail in November.

(PS, I'm not accusing you of the wishful thinking bit. I'm just trying to keep eyes on the prize--PRESIDENT BIDEN!) Let's go kick some tRump ASS--together!!

[WinstonSmith4740]

30. Plus, the knuckle draggers love it all.

They love everything that comes out of his mouth. They think it makes him some kind of alpha male. He can't say anything stupid, disgusting, enraging, or insulting enough for them to not support him. He'll never shoot himself in the foot...even if he had dead aim on it, some sycophant would take the bullet for him.

[Newest Reality]

38. Let's just say...

If Captain Trumpatoonia were my commanding officer and I was one of his troops and we were about to go off into a big, fierce battle, I would just shoot myself to get it over with quickly and avoid the coming hassles

That's how far off their projection is. Only a fool would follow that clown turd into any grave situation. He would lead people into a losing battle and then hide under the bodies and tweet about his great strategy.

[calimary]

52. Captain Trumpatoonia!

That's one petunia that will smell pretty rotten!

[sprinkleeninow]

37. We need to be ultra vigilant, yes. Only thing, comey's stunt so close to the election

really put the kabosh on HRC's apparent victory. Her numbers went down after his maneuver whether intentional or not. I will never give him a pass on this.

[Demsrule86]

47. No we don't... we need to be enthusiastic and engaged and vote but not down in the dumps gloomy

which dampens down the vote.

[Catherine Vincent]

12. No biggie

They'll just get the Russians to help again.

[CousinIT]

13. ONLY. IF. EVERYONE. VOTES. Virus or no virus. n/t

[Stuart G]

16. Yes,...ONLY IF EVERONE VOTES...BUT A GREAT MAJORITY WILL VOTE..

because Donald Trump is a ....repulsive person

He has shown himself to be so to everyone in the last 5 months. That is clear, plain, and very simple..

When voting time comes, that great majority will vote for that reason..Is it 58%, 62% or more? (64%)
No one knows. Trump is a ..bully, ignorant and total repulsive person

He had a major issue, the virus, and he failed on all fronts of this problem. But this is not financial, or political...this was a problem of life and death

Yes Trump failed and in November when Trump says, he was "successful" on the "Virus Topic"

The lie will be seen by all, and many former supporters will vote for anyone else..Biden is a great choice because he has experience, honesty, and been through a whole lot. I believe it will be a landslide for Biden
...

[sprinkleeninow]

39. He's not waiting until November. Already said he's saved lives in this epidemic. 😤

[lunatica]

21. Hopefully by November we'll have better safeguards against

the Coronavirus so people will be able to vote. And who knows, we might all be voting by mail by then. The House is fighting for it.

[CousinIT]

40. Issue with vote by mail: Trump's donor goon is Postmaster Gen + USPS will be privatized by then. n/t

[Squidly]

54. At this point

I do not trust voting by mail not one little bit.
Way to easy to "lose" ballots and absolutely no way to safeguard this.

[CousinIT]

58. Especially with Trump's donor goon in charge. LOTS of ballots will be "lost"

This scares the shit out of me. Democrats are all pushing for vote by mail but with Trump's unqualified goon (only qualification is that he donated bigly to Trump) in charge, orders will be given to interfere with anything resembling a ballot. And once it's bankrupt and privatized, postage and shipping costs will be through the roof, and delivery grossly unreliable - and totally unavailable in rural areas.

I think able people are going to have to just suck it up and go to the polls. Those who usually voted absentee prior to this will not have another choice - disabled or those who don't have transportation.

As for me, I'm taking a mask and gloves and going to the damn polls. I'm taking hand sanitizer and wipes in my car and will wash my hands and disinfect the minute I get home. But I'm going to vote normally.

[Squidly]

62. Im going to look into volunteering

To drive people to the polls. Im going to do all I can.

[lunatica]

65. Let's hope someone can fight back effectively

I feel liken we’re in a race against time, like the kid sticking a finger in the dyke.

[CousinIT]

67. Pelosi just said it's up to the American people to fight this so...

...whoever your reps are, call their offices and send them letters and emails. Especially if they're goddamned Republicans.

[lunatica]

68. My reps are all Democrats in both houses

I can’t tell you how grateful I am about that!

[rockfordfile]

81. true

We have to work hard to get the vote out.

[warmfeet]

15. Excellent!

May the dotard experience humiliations galore. May all repugs experience humiliations galore.

[bucolic_frolic]

22. TX OH FL NC AZ

we'll be ok if we take 3 or 4 of those, but MN and WI still leaning Dem

[johnthewoodworker]

24. As we get closer to the election some polling will show the race tightening and cat grabber will

miraculously win 3 or 4 states by a total of less than 100,000 votes. He will lose the real vote by a massive margin, but win the electoral college. He will claim unprecedented levels of voter fraud. The fix is in and that's why republicans are not deserting, what should be, a sinking ship. This is a rigged election.

[John Fante]

42. None of this will happen. Trump is a one-term president and that's all there is to it.

Last edited Sun May 17, 2020, 06:45 PM - Edit history (1)

But thanks for the absurd negativity. No better way to rally a base than to proclaim doom-and-gloom. /s

[Demsrule86]

49. One has to wonder what motivates such posts...hmmm

[Squidly]

55. I think the posters motivation is

We cant let up on the gas.
If we get too sure of ourselves we are not going to like the outcome.
I too believe the fix is in...thats why we need to crush him with numbers so large that whatever they are cooking up is going to burn in the pan.

[Demsrule86]

48. You are wrong. And insisting Trump wins on a Democratic site is not a goo thing to do.

Trump will not win...and your words are not reflective of our situation. We can beat Trump if we vote.

[0rganism]

26. 'Based on leaks from his "team."'

iow, to be trusted as much as anything else that leaks out of Trump's "team".

[John Fante]

44. If the reverse were true, Trump would be tweeting the results for all to see.

He LOVES polls when the numbers are favorable to him.

[0rganism]

50. it doesn't matter what the truth is, he brag-tweets anyway

to his followers, his tweets create truth.
the absolute certainty of his followers leads many others to suspend disbelief.
the media risks further outrage if they report more of what the viewers "know" to be untrue, so they clam up and go with the flow.
lo and behold, the prevailing media narrative on the topic is how well Trump is doing in swing state polls (based on an unscientific segmentation of a larger mainstream poll from last week, iirc)
thus, for Trump's PR purposes, polling is kind of secondary -- he probably doesn't ever see any poll results that his staff thinks might piss him off. the contents of polls won't affect his strategy, especially this early.

meanwhile, an unsourced leak from his staff is saying the internals look bad for him. maybe they do.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

28. I want more voters to understand that it is life-threatening to vote for ANY Republican.

[Wounded Bear]

51. Good news, but a lot of time left...

and a lot of work to do.

[dvan]

56. Texaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaas!

[summer_in_TX]

73. I keep waiting for Texas farmers and ranchers to wake up.

They've allowed privately-owned oil and gas companies to declare eminent domain and take private property without recourse. They even passed a law in the last legislative session making it a felony for landowners to protest. (I assume physical actions, not oral or written.)

Kinder Morgan has divided land held in families for generations, refused to negotiate a better, safer path that did less damage to the landowners, and are bulldozing huge swaths through the Texas Hill Country.

When are they going to realize they're going to keep getting screwed if they keep voting the same way.

[Locrian]

57. if there's one thing I've learned from horror films...

it's to NEVER turn your back on the monster and think that just because he's down it's for good.

We need to go for total voting annihilation.
50 state strategy - go for it ALL, never let up, all hands on deck.

never turn your back on the monster

[GaYellowDawg]

59. I sure hope that's accurate.

Because if you give Trump every tossup state on that map, plus Florida, he still loses.

[jimlup]

64. Don't assume anything

Remember that Trump has Putin on his side.

[samsingh]

74. how do you know this is based on internal gop polls?

[Orrex]

76. If there were any justice, 334/141 would be Trump's blood pressure

[Yavin4]

77. It's May. Don't believe the hype. TX, NC, and FLA will go to Trump in the end.

The key three states are PA-WI-MI. Win those and Trump is done.

[writes3000]

78. I want those three and Arizona.

[rockfordfile]

80. FL and NC won't

[Yavin4]

88. NC is iffy at best, and FLA is corrupt as hell.

No way Trump loses FLA with a Republican governor.

[captain queeg]

82. I think Ohio will go Biden.

[Richard58]

85. Yes!

Please God let it be so! Not only to save our country but also to wipe the smirk off the faces of the MAGA morons who keep bragging that Trump is gonna "win in a landslide!"

[saidsimplesimon]

89. Je adore Arizona bleu

[lindysalsagal]

90. electoral-vote.com has the senate turning blue, too. 51!!! GOP 49

https://electoral-vote.com/

Biden 319 frump 204

[lindysalsagal]

91. 538: Biden's steady lead of 6 points highest against incumbent since '44

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/

If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Biden’s average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump is the steadiest lead in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. In other words, Biden has led, on average, by 6 points since the beginning of 2020, but he’s also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019.


One thing that’s stood out to me is Trump’s lost points among voters who don’t like either candidate running. In 2016, Trump won these voters by a large margin, but here in 2020, they’re breaking overwhelmingly for Biden.

geoffrey.skelley: For me, it’s hard not to connect Trump’s standing in the polls with his approval rating. It’s been consistently stuck between roughly 40 and 45 percent in most polls. And, overall, he’s at about 45 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker of registered or likely voter polls, with about 52 percent of voters who disapprove of him (his approval has generally been a little better among voters than adults, and voters will determine his future).

I’d argue that this had real repercussions in the 2018 midterms, too. Just look at the exit polls — 88 percent of voters who approved of Trump voted for the GOP, but 90 percent of those who disapproved of him voted Democratic. So, if many more people continue to disapprove than approve of Trump, I think it’ll be challenging for him to win.