Biden's victory code: Hillay States + PA-WI-MI

[Yavin4]

Pass it on.

[RhodeIslandOne]

1. We are going to win AZ

More faith in that than Wisconsin.

[roamer65]

4. THIS.

[BGBD]

10. I'll take both

but yeah, Arizona is looking really good right now.

Besides that Biden is also leading or at worst tied in 2016 Trump States Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Texas.

Trump has one path to victory, to win all almost all of the states in won in 2016, and not lose more than PA and MI. Right now Biden leads in most polls form the states above. He even leads in polls that include undecideds and 3rd parties, but when polled head to head his lead grows. That means a lot of the undecideds are leaning to him, and that makes sense. Undecideds tend to break more to the challenger than the incumbent.

2016 was weird. Clinton had large leads at times, but they never lasted for long and it always returned to a tight race. Trump would do something to cause his numbers to plummet, like attack a Gold Star family or the Access Hollywood tape, but he was always able to get the news off of him and back onto Clinton. So far he hasn't been able to shake the spotlight no matter what he does, and it's hurting him. Biden has a larger lead than Clinton at this point and it has been incredibly steady.

Lots of things can happen, but a lot of stuff has already happened and the race never really changed more than a point or so in any direction. If the election were today, Biden would win and I don't think it would be close.

[Baclava]

2. Don't forget FL, he's going to lose the senior vote, bigly

[SCantiGOP]

3. I'll throw in

NC and maybe Florida

[regnaD kciN]

5. I HOPE that isn't the plan...

...because that implies being dependent of everything falling exactly right. And, frankly, I have my concerns about Wisconsin, which has been moving more red over the past two decades, and is probably a legitimate "toss-up" state right now. And, even if all three came through, the loss of a single small state from 2016 - New Hampshire, for instance - could still spell doom.

I'm hoping the Biden campaign is planning on contesting a number of more Republican-leaning states (Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona) and expanding the field that way...because, if the Trump campaign knows that all they have to do is pour all their resources into the same trio of rust-belt states they did last time around, it's going to be a nervous Election Night for me.

[Schematto]

6. Biden +1 in latest Georgia poll

That's one to watch.

[fishwax]

7. I think Arizona is a better bet than Wisconsin at this point

but I'm hoping we take them both

[Celerity]

8. more important than any other swing State is still FL

Also, I trust WI for shit.

MI is pretty much a semi-sure thing atm.

PA I feel better about than I did (Biden is a partial native son.)

AZ and NC are deffo in play.

here is why FL is so utterly important (and AZ)

We can LOSE ALL of MN, IA, WI, OH, PA, MO, IN, NC, GA, TX, NH, KS, AK, plus lose both ME-2, NE-2

and still WIN

as long as we win MI, FL, AZ (CO, VA and NV should be ours somewhat easily, easier than any others listed, but we also could even lose NV, if we win either NH OR MN, we do not even need both, and we can lose ALL 3 of NH, NV, MN on top of all the rest and STILL win, if we flip the 2 districts of ME-2 and NE-2 <<<< the 2nd map, or even lose CO, as long as we win either just MN or both NV and NH plus one of either ME-2 or NE-2 <<< we do not need both then <<<< 3rd and 4th maps)

that is every remotely swing state and district accounted for

[Yavin4]

11. Biden won't win FLA.

DeSantis will make sure of that. PA-WI-MI have Dem governors, so it will be a fair fight.

[StevieM]

9. Nope. FL, NC and AZ are all battleground states, just as they were in 2016.

We would have won all six states--decisively--had it not been for James Comey's antics.