Social distancing in Black and white neighborhoods in Detroit: A data-driven look

[brooklynite]

Brookings Institution

As COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on Americans’ health and the nation’s economy, its effects are disproportionately felt in Black America. In America’s densely populated cities, in suburbs, and elsewhere, the number of cases and deaths among Blacks far outstrips their share of the population overall. One of those cities is Detroit. We use new mobile device tracking data to examine social distancing and how it impacts infection rates in that city, to better understand the virus’s disproportionate impact on Black America.

There is evidence that social distancing measures can decisively flatten the epidemic curve and reduce infections, in locations such as San Francisco and Washington State. Unfortunately, according to Unacast’s social-distance index Wayne County, where Detroit is located, has continually struggled to implement the measure. The county’s rating has consistently fluctuated between a failing F grade and C-minus—a marginal pass. It is critical that we examine whether social distancing disparities contribute in turn to racial disparities. We leveraged anonymized mobility data from SafeGraph Inc., a geolocation data aggregator, and constructed a panel of more than 90,000 devices to examine the links between the coronavirus propagation, social distancing, and socioeconomic factors in Detroit’s neighborhoods.

The analysis shows that as the pandemic wore on, Black Detroiters were less able to stay at home and socially distance. This places Blacks at a higher risk of contracting and spreading COVID-19, not because of choices but because of structural differences in the economy. In further analysis, we find that even after controlling for structural features, Blacks, those with lower income, and the presence of essential workers are associated with higher infection rates in the city.

Detroit remains the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Wayne County, Michigan, which has consistently led the state’s other counties in confirmed case counts. As of May 15th, Detroit’s nearly 10,259 confirmed cases of coronavirus were generally concentrated in predominately Black and lower-income communities. (Overall, Michigan stands out as one of the states with the highest reported race-based COVID death disparities). Ninety percent of the city’s zip codes with the highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases have populations that are at least 80% Black. Median income across these zip codes are substantially lower than the state’s median income.