Why Trump, GOP are running into trouble in Arizona

[RandySF]

Of the 313 precincts in 2016 that voted for Trump in Maricopa County — the largest county in the state — 88 flipped over to Sinema in 2018, while McSally was unable to flip even one of the 317 precincts that supported Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Polls show Trump’s support has eroded among key groups that supported him in 2016, such as older people and white voters without a college education.

In addition, changing demographics from domestic migration have altered the political landscape in Arizona, which is one of the fastest growing states in the country. Blue states such as California, Oregon, Washington and Illinois are among the biggest feeder states into Arizona. A growing tech industry has attracted a younger and more liberal workforce.

Independents make up the fastest-growing political force in the state, and at the moment at least, polls show them breaking for Biden over Trump, helping him to a 7-point lead in a survey released by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) this week. Biden leads by 4 points in Arizona in the RealClearPolitics average.

“The reality is, Republicans have a big issue with suburban voters and they’re not doing as well with the older demographic, which is typically conservative,” said Mike Noble, the managing partner at OHPI. “That’s been behind the big shift and part of why they lost four statewide races in 2018.”

If the Electoral College map stays the same as in 2016 but Biden wins back Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania from Trump, he’ll win the White House.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/498796-why-trump-gop-are-running-into-trouble-in-arizona

[Mike 03]

1. This analysis is appreciated.

So many of our rural areas are red but have extreme needs in terms of health care and general financial assistance, and when the lead story during a pandemic is Senator Martha McSally telling cities and towns to fend for themselves, and we have an administration trying to kill the Affordable Care Act, at some point even the densest idiots start to realize we are not being helped by Republican representation. (And by the way, Senator Sinema has taken a very prominent role during this pandemic and is doing tremendous outreach while McSally is doing nothing.)

My mother was incensed this morning because there's a Trump/Pence sign on her street, but maybe the real story is that there aren't more of them. Between the two of us, we've seen two Trump/Pence signs all year. In 2016 we were suffocating in Trump signs. (Of course, it's early yet).

[AZ8theist]

2. Explains why I'm seeing multiple Doturd ads trashing Joe...

accusing Joe of being weak on FUCKING CHINA!!!!!

You know, the country that DOTURD OWES FUCKING $$$MILLIONS$$$ to ?????

Good work, Doturd campaign. BRILLIANT thinking......money well spent.

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[Aristus]

3. I hear Tucson is a growing force in the tech sector.

I love Tucson. When I lived in Sierra Vista as a kid, a weekend trip to Tucson was like a journey to the Emerald City of Oz.