Reopening economy 'will have a much smaller-than-expected impact,' experts argue

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

As states begin to reopen their economies amid the coronavirus pandemic, some experts are arguing that it won’t do much to alleviate the effects of the economic shock from the virus.

In a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Christopher M. Meissner and Peter Zhixian Lin, economists from the department of economics at UC Davis, found that lifting stay-at-home orders may not make much of a difference in terms of economic effects.

“If the disease is still out there and people perceive it to be dangerous to go out, they will not go out,” the co-authors told Yahoo Finance in an email. “Also, the rest of the world is in recession, too, and the ‘re-opening’ will have a much smaller than expected impact.”

Every U.S. state is amid some form of reopening their economies. In states like Georgia and Texas, shelter-in-place orders have expired and the respective governors have reopened businesses as a means for stopping further havoc on the states’ economies.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reopening-economy-will-have-a-much-smallerthanexpected-impact-experts-argue-120701242.html

As I and many others have stated, we have a health problem that our leaders are treating like an economic problem. Take care of the health issues. Once they're solved the economy will recover itself. People are less likely to go out and spend money if they fear getting a potentially fatal disease.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. I was thinking "smaller on case numbers" but then I read the excerpt. I think they are right

Most Americans are not actually desperate for pedicures and bowling.

[Wounded Bear]

7. Yeah, had the same initial reaction, but agree...

the economy is down for the count for now. Wall Street will do what it does, but Main Street is screwn.

Gonna be a long road back.

[Cha]

2. KR!

[ProfessorGAC]

3. K&R! (nt)

[RDANGELO]

4. Until they get a vaccine, and then they have to distribute it.

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. Could not agree more with comment.

This is a national health problem and until that is fixed and consumer confidence returns, the economy will stay in the shitter. Trump protesting MAGAts be damned.

[Pacifist Patriot]

6. They didn't consider one important factor.

“If the disease is still out there and people perceive it to be dangerous to go out, they will not go out,”

Based on what I observed this evening, way too many people do NOT perceive it as too dangerous to go out. Never underestimate the human capacity to engage in "it won't happen to me" thinking.

[MyOwnPeace]

9. You got THAT right!

Seeing parties in my neighborhood already this weekend. Not too smart for my way of thinking.

As for me, I'd LOVE to get a haircut - but I like living even more!

[Pacifist Patriot]

12. I ususally get my hair done every 5 weeks. It's been 11.

I'm gaining an appreciation for hair bands. Yeah, I'd love to get a hair cut. I'd LOVE to get a massage. But being able to take a deep breath and know I'll probably be able to do the same tomorrow means a hell of a lot more.

I'm hoping people were always this stupid. I'd hate to think it's a recent phenomenon and getting worse.

[Hav]

8. Yes, makes sense

Rational people prefer not to get sick and they don't want to play roulette with their lives.
That's one of the reasons why Sweden will also face a negative economic impact that is comparable to the neighboring states despite not having implemented rules that were as strict as other European countries.

[coti]

10. This is precisely the right's biggest mistake.

If they wanted to strengthen the economy, they needed to be focused on problem-solving in such a way that it increased everyone's confidence in the safety of venturing out into the community. The Clorox-drinkers' attitudes have been toxic to developing our confidence in each other. They have done much, much more damage to our economy through their obstinate, argumentative approach.

[procon]

11. Also, people will keep their money and not

go on lavish spending sprees. We've all learned the hard way about food shortages and the loss of consumer services that we took for granted prior to corona virus. We've gone through cash crunches and worse, where money isn't to be had.

After any big disaster or emergency people are wary of how they spend their money. Once they catch up with the bills, not many folks will blow their money on frivolous toys and entertainments as long as the unreliable Trump is yelling out contradictory orders and confusing us with lies and disinformation.

Recovery will be very slow. The working class, the poor, disabled and elderly have nothing to spare and Trump will not help them which means the economy will slow to a crawl.

[Pacifist Patriot]

13. I wish I had your confidence.

According to the father of the bride at the wedding I officiated this evening...(https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213476342)

the hotel told him they were so crowded because people were telling them that is how they were spending their stimulus checks.

Spending stimulus checks on a weekend at a beach hotel where they could hang out at the patio bar cheek to jowl sucking down margaritas. If Florida's numbers don't soar in the next few weeks I'll be astounded.

[uponit7771]

14. K&R, ***THE SAME THING*** Was found to be true in Sweden another continent away !!

From the article

“Based on this, there is no evidence that stay-at-home policies led to stronger rises in jobless claims,” Meissner and Zhixian Lin wrote.

Matches this

Sweden Has Avoided a Coronavirus Lockdown. Its Economy Is Hurting Anyway.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-has-avoided-a-coronavirus-lockdown-its-economy-is-hurting-anyway-11588870062