What if, hypothetically, we don't get the huge surge in cases that we are expecting?

[captain queeg]

I don’t think that will be the case, but since a whole lot of people will continue with safe practices (against trump’s guidance) maybe the coming wave won’t be too dramatic. If it were to work out that way, trump and his followers will claim vindication, ignoring the fact that the majority of the population is playing it safe.

And of course we know there’ll be major efforts to cook the books and minimize any public numbers. Personally I think it’ll get so bad that they won’t be able to hide it. And it’s going to take a couple weeks for the results of opening up will really be apparent.

100,000 dead for Memorial Day. 200,000 by July 4th?

[Funtatlaguy]

1. Many red states will underreport what actually happens.

[marlakay]

39. True but there are democrats who live

In those states and will leak hospital info about numbers.

[snowybirdie]

2. That will be wonderful

and it's not bad to be wrong in this case. I'll be grateful less people died. This is not a contest between the red and the blues. The hell with what they say. I'll be happy.

[struggle4progress]

25. +

[coti]

27. Yes- i.e., if people aren't ACTUALLY being more careless, even though the media makes it seem that

way, I'll be grateful that everyone is safer and that fewer people than expected died.

Of course, if any such realization ever comes that then leads people to being more careless, we'll likely see the fruits of that.

[Ms. Toad]

30. You beat me to it. n/t

[unblock]

3. We likely won't. New York City was the perfect storm

We won't likely see anything like that again. The masses of people working indoors and riding the subway made it a huge hot spot.

But that won't happen anywhere else. Instead, we'll see boomlets here any there as smaller areas have outbreaks and shut down locally.

The spread will continue at a higher rate than it should, but there likely won't be blaring headlines of disaster in any one major location.

And then, yes, they will lie about the totals....

[Blue_true]

28. In Florida, most people are under AC all summer.

My argument is the trouble is just starting for us in Florida. We are moving toward maximum exposure to the conditions that coronaviruses love, low humidity, and low temperature.

[uponit7771]

40. We already are ... Few figures sans NY metro which skews national results

[unblock]

42. And this is the problem

Numbers higher than they should be, but not jumping wildly out so obvious that the idiots can't pretend it's just going away slowly.

NYC declining masks the problem areas, and this sort of thing will continue. Analytical people can see extra, unnecessary cases and deaths, idiots just see the absence of a huge spike in the totals.

[uponit7771]

47. +1, I'm going to OP a warning on NY metro numbers showing the national numbers

[LakeArenal]

4. That would be great.

It doesn’t make Dump a hero or competent or anything.

[SoonerPride]

5. Expect 35,000 dead per month throughout the summer

[Blue_true]

31. What percentage of people work under AC during the Summer in Oklahoma?

In Florida, I believe that our problems are just beginning.

I believe the high death rates are going to shift from NYC, Jersey, PA, MI, IL, MN to places like Texas, parts of California, Florida, Georgia, Alabama. The number of infected will go down, but there will continue to be a lot of people getting infected.

My greatest concern is that now that SAR-COV-2 has established itself in human hosts, it will successfully mutate in a way to promote maximum survival for it.

[jberryhill]

6. That would be great

Plan for the worst. Hope for the best.

[Under The Radar]

7. Yea I don't think it is about the virus any more...

They are focusing on controlling the message, attacking the media when they question their position, states not reporting actual statistics....
I am hoping for bold reporting and courageous correspondence

[MerryBlooms]

8. If we who care continue to distance and mask,

we can avoid worst case. The less cases, the less chance I have in bringing it home to my sisters or to my Home Health clients. Our southern Oregon county was on the right path, but now we have some new cases, which makes me nervous. There was a big whine fest at out courthouse a couple weeks ago, no telling where all those people came from and what the spread could be. We can only continue to be vigilant and protect ourselves and those we care about.

[Baclava]

9. Colleges will plan for full return of students to campuses for fall classes, if there no big spike

[mercuryblues]

19. Nope

My son's college will start as usual. Then will go back to distance learning after fall break, in anticipation of the next wave.

[Ms. Toad]

32. Yes and no.

We're planning for a return, but it won't look anything like it has.

Professors teaching in face shields, students wearing masks unless they have a medical excuse
40 students in a class designed for 180; simulcast into the two other larger classrooms if the class is larger than 40 - and available via webcast at home to anyone who is vulnerable (or lives with someone vulnerable)
Some professors teaching remotely if they are vulnerable (or live with someone vulnerable)
Mandatory seating assigned by the administration so that contract tracing can be instantaneous if a student gets sick
Disinfecting seats and desks between every class
One way traffic in the classrooms
Strict ban on timely attendance
Potentially airline style admission (Row 1, Row 2, etc.)
New students (1st year) and small classes taught by adjuncts in person; most others either online OR hybrid (perhaps splitting the week with another hybrid class.

Yeah. We're farther along in our planning than most.

[Baclava]

34. I was thinking of big schools needing on campus students to roll in the big $$$, college football

[Ms. Toad]

38. We're a mixture.

Some residential, some commuters. 12-15,000. Most of the planning is specific to the college I work in; the rest of the university lags behind. But not much athletics.

[Freethinker65]

10. Rural red areas will not have enough ICU beds available so will need to transfer patients...

To transfer patients to nearest blue city hospitals where patients will receive excellent care and most will return to their communities.

Will that be enough to change some minds?

I hope many are correct that hospitalizations/deaths among people living in large urban areas has begun to stabilize.

[roamer65]

23. They will bring it back to the blue cities.

Field hospitals should be set up to keep them away from the population centers.

[Midnight Writer]

11. Hate radio is already cuing up this record.

" Liberals were saying 2.5 million dead! There's only 90,00 dead! Proof the MSM is ginning up a crisis to ruin the economy and frame Trump!"

[Bucky]

16. They can say that, but no one wanted anyone to die.

I will not become a cartoon caricature just because it goes against what Trump says. That's the kind of ass-backwards thinking that led to Republicans almost universally rejecting healthcare plan that would have saved American lives, even though it was mostly based on a republican healthcare law. They were screaming the sky was pink just because Obama said it was blue. That's stupid and they're stupid.

I want the economy to get it fixed as soon as possible, even before the election. I want people to be saved from or to get better from this horrible disease, long before the election. I have zero confidence that Trump could manage that, but I'd be very happy if that did happen. I am proud of Speaker Pelosi for pushing for a recovery package that will help all Americans.

[JCMach1]

12. Depends on if there is a seasonality aspect to this virus

[Blue_true]

33. My concern is that it uses the Summer to mutate in human hosts to something that is deadlier.

The worse case scenario would be a slower incubating mutant that kills more efficiently once it incubates. That is what I stay up at night panicking about, relative to my family members staying healthy.

[JCMach1]

45. More mutation (some has already happened)

Is inevitable...

Let's hope it doesn't amount to much

[Blue_true]

53. The best case would be if it mutates to an irritant, but not a killer.

That too is a path that it could take.

[uponit7771]

41. There's not, Brazil lit up in the hottest part of thier summer

[JCMach1]

46. What if that still wasn't maxxed out? Initial Chinese

R0 was 2 all the way up to 3.7...

We don't yet know precisely how much cold and low humidity will change the rate with other transmission parameters in place.

[former9thward]

13. No there will not be 200,000 dead by July 4th

and no, no one is covering it up. Every prediction about this disease on both sides has been wrong, including the ones posted on this site. The disease is going to do what it does. As Governor Cuomo said a few days ago, 66% of Covid deaths were people following all the rules. They were at home not going out. And they died.

[louis-t]

18. I don't believe that 66% were

"following all the rules." The virus didn't come through the walls of their house. Someone brought it into their homes, or they were out and someone without a mask gave it to them. Or they touched a surface that was infected and put their hand to their face.

[former9thward]

22. Fine, call him a liar.

It was people hospitalized for Covid not deaths.

Cuomo says it’s ‘shocking’ most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home

Most new Covid-19 hospitalizations in New York state are from people who were staying home and not venturing much outside, a “shocking” finding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

“If you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us,” Cuomo said.

“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” he added. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”

Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. Overall, some 73% of the admissions were people over age 51.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

[LisaL]

24. Staying home and not venturing much outside is far from

staying at home all the time. It doesn't take much to get infected when someone ventures outside by an airborne disease, does it?

[former9thward]

49. Yes it does.

Covid is spread indoors, with multiple people present and with poor ventilation. Those are the facts and the science.

[Blue_true]

35. You quoted a lot of stuff, but you still didn't disprove the poster's observation.

There is a big difference between following all the rules exactly and following all the rules. You seem incapable of distinguishing between the two.

[former9thward]

50. I will guess, you the anonymous internet poster, will have to educate Gov. Cuomo.

So he not so "shocked".

[Blue_true]

51. Being flippant always brings people to accept your arguments. Not really.

You still haven't answered anything, flippant comment included.

[former9thward]

54. I did answer.

The poster said there would be 200,000 dead by July 4th. I said there would not be. Or anything close to that number.

[Blue_true]

56. I agree with your take. In July I expect this coronavirus to

have taken the spot as the third deadliest outbreak in US history and it will be close to becoming the second most, but I don't see 200,000 dead by that time.

One factor that could dramatically upend all projections is the heavy use of AC in places like my Florida and Georgia, where officials are playing fast and loose with the virus spread. With large numbers of people being under AC for most of each day, the virus would have the ideal early spring conditions that it seemed to have thrived on. But with DeSantis and Kemp seemingly hiding data on the spread rate and mortality of the virus within the state's that they lead, my guess is sane behavior like encouraging citizens to wear masks when in public and to practice social distancing will be delayed.

[coti]

29. Yeah, I'm not sure this idea that they were totally isolated can be squared with them getting sick

[Ms. Toad]

37. That was a misinterpretation of the chart that accompanied the talk.

The chart was a representation of where people were living when they were admitted (nursing home, home, homeless, jail, etc.), not what they were doing.

Most people live in a home. That's why that figure is 66% - not because they were at home and following the guidelines.

The data from which the chart was made did not identify whether the 66% who were admitted from home were following the guidelines



(I know that is what Cuomo said - but it is not what the data on which he based his statement showed. I was disappointed that I have not seen follow-up corrections/explanations - since that is a pretty big difference, and many people interpreted it exactly as you have.)

[Voltaire2]

14. Then enough of us did the right thing.

And we reduced the rate of infection below 1.

[Bucky]

15. Honestly, if The Rona magically went away, that would be awesome

I would totally celebrate.

[Blue_true]

36. In 1918 the virus seemed to have "gone away". History shows that it was

mutating to a more deadly mutant.

[Chemisse]

17. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened, and I would be so happy.

Schools could open in the fall and we could all start to recover.

I do think we'll get hit again in the late fall no matter what, but that's another story.

[herding cats]

20. 200,000 passed by July 4th? No.

Thankfully zero reliable models support this.

Will there be a second surge, yes. Will it be worse than the first? In some areas it will. It's all about local control, testing and tracing.

My heart is with every single person out there trying their own personal best to mitigate this crisis. Of which I know people on both sides of the political isle in my local community. I also know those on the right trying to deeply politicize this in ways which makes all of us less safe. I'd normally say a pithy, "a pox on them" here, but that's not funny to me anymore.

I just want people to be safe and for there to be a vaccine as soon as possible. I want the pain of loss to end and for us to navigate our way beyond this pandemic.

The RW can do them, but I'm only capable of doing me here.

[cry baby]

21. There is or will be an effort to alter numbers by non-reporting or

changing the cause of deaths so the numbers won’t reflect what’s really happening. Trump has his cronies/cultists in most places of consequence to make these number changes.

We may not know the true extent of any second or third wave.

[Blue_true]

26. Where I live less than half the people are wearing masks.

Some are foolish enough to think the hot Florida weather protects them. Yet their internal body temperature is always 97 degrees, if they are not sick. A sick person may not transmit easily outdoors, but in Florida during the summer, most people spend the majority of their day in doors under AC, SARS-COV-2 loves AC.

[Raine]

43. No surge would be the BEST thing ever! 🤞

Hopefully there is no second wave and this thing ends soon.

[Brainfodder]

44. You're in Fantasyland?

Last edited Mon May 25, 2020, 05:16 AM - Edit history (1)

Let's call May 10th the first day of reopening, not likely accurate, but picking a day.
Theory is 4-5 weeks to hit peak, so that's 28-35 days from May 10th, which is.....

June 7th - June 15th, the #'s remains to be seen, the threat of being worse and pushing an already weathered and down health care system from the HOAX, is not helpful either?

Move the dates up or back according to your thoughts on the re-start for your area?

YIKES! is probably the correct reaction?

I'm already sad.

Good luck!

[Iggo]

52. I'll celebrate.

[kentuck]

55. That would be great!

We have surged enough already.