Obama economist: Trump economic indicators could soar just before the 2020 election

[egbertowillies]

Obama's senior economist Jason Furman believes that just before the election Trump's economic indicators could begin to soar. For those who do not understand economics and relative growth, we will need to tell the truth about the absolute data which will be bad.

[uponit7771]

1. Sore from -20 to -15%, Furman should've put things in relative terms. We're down -38% now

[napi21]

2. What exact;y are they talking about whn they say "The Economy"? If they are referring to the

stock market, then yes, for a while it will go up. If they are talking about the "Retail economy", then I say no it won't. There are still a lot of people who will be afraid to return to restaurants, shopping malls, etc. BUT, there are a whole lot of people who won't be able to "go shopping" because they have NO MONEY! They just lived in desperation with unemployment comp (if they're lucky) or no income at all, for months! It will be quite a while before they have any disposable income for those luxuries.

Besides, the crappy economy is not the only thing that hurts DT's reelection. There's lots of other reasons why he will lose, He just won't accept that right now.

[Cicada]

3. CBO projects annual gdp down 40% quarter 2, up 20% qtr 3

We should be ready for Trump taking credit for restarting the economy. He will say that he has created the biggest quarterly gdp increase in history. True but misleading. If you dive from 60 feet up you may go 20 feet underwater then rise to 16 feet underwater on your path back up. That’s what the economy will do, in effect.Go 20 feet underwater then rise to 16 feet underwater. In quarter 3 we will still be underwater but Trump will say we have risen a record amount hallelujah.

We need to explain this to the public before Trump starts his spin.

[TreadSoftly]

4. Worth listening toward the end -- difference "job growth" and "people returning to jobs"

I saw Chuck Todd and did a fast forward, then I set the speed at 1.5...

This speaker presented a point late in the broadcast that this isn't a typical scenario where "create jobs" is expanding the economy. Rather, these are people were furloughed [my word for it] so when the jobs numbers go up, it is good to remind each other that these folks are merely returning to work.

IMHO he is correct and an equivalent situation, with respect to jobs, would be a 26 week snowstorm, unless you are in performing arts or venues in which case it's a 78 week snowstorm.

However, there is no recovery to losing 100,000 lives and we have to risk more lives because DT is more interested in golf.

[pecosbob]

5. I don't think anyone but kool-aid addicts would accept the projected rebound as a win

My take from Las Vegas...forty percent of the workforce is still at home. The hospitality industry (the hotel-casinos) will open at best with about twenty percent of it's original workforce and is not likely to even be booking twenty-five percent of it's rooms until after the first of the year. The point being that they know there will not be demand. Bottom line is that twenty percent that lost their jobs here will not go back to their previous jobs...ever. Many businesses that are now being forced to find a way to get more work from fewer employees will not rehire cast-off employees.

They can frame people returning to work as job growth or job creation or whatever bull they choose, but consumers will dictate the return to 'normalcy' and not the self-appointed masters of the universe.

I gave myself a damned haircut yesterday...doesn't look terrible.

[brush]

6. What a tunnel vision prediction. Is the so-called economic...

recovery supposed to offset what will be over 200,000 deaths by then?

These alleged experts should know better.

[sop]

7. Trump will figure out how to resurrect the dead and his followers will believe he's God.

[Chainfire]

9. Not has hard as you might think

All he has to do is challenge the numbers of dead as being "fake news."

[sop]

10. Crisis actors?

[ProfessorGAC]

8. I Don't Agree

While some bounce is inevitable, I think selling that it's mostly meaningless because it's a bounce from disaster is fairly easy.
Provided we frame it in nontechnical terms.
"After neglecting CV, the economy collapsed. Nowhere to go but up. This is no big deal!"
Or something like that.

[Demsrule86]

12. I think we are headed for depression myself.

And the mid west will not recover right away. We didn't recover fro 08 fully.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. Farther Than I'd Go

But, I understand your sentiment.
I think it will be a moderate recession, but with a slow growth curve out of it.

[Demsrule86]

11. All bullshit and was posted yesterday...the economy is in the toilet. And it will take years tor

recover.

[honest.abe]

13. The numbers might indicate a bounce but main street America wont see it, in fact quite the opposite.

Unemployment will remain at depression era levels for well past Nov. Many companies will go bankrupt or only hire back a minimal staff to just stay in business. Governments wont hire either since they will also be strapped financially. Economic assistance money will also dry up and many people will not be able to pay mortgages or rent and some will be forced out of their homes/apartments. Homelessness and poverty will skyrocket and voters will be angry and afraid.

In that scenario, the incumbent always loses. Not saying that is a good thing but that is the reality.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Jobs report and Q3 growth get released just before election

JObs report will show job growth, but will have 10%+ UE. Growth will be a negative number still.

[Edwcraig]

15. It is an easy play. Just now claim that the economic stimulus worked. . .

because of the efforts of the the Democratic House overcoming the opposition of the Republicans. And say that no stimulus would have been required if the Republicans and Trump had acted more quickly to prevent the spread of Covid. Give him no room to maneuver. Politics 101.