While Venezuela’s oil ebbs, Colombia’s flows

[hack89]

Nearly a decade after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez fired 20,000 oil workers from the state oil company, Venezuelan production has slumped. In nearby Colombia, a country that has attracted many Venezuelan oil engineers, production is soaring. As recently as 2005, Colombia thought it would have to import oil, but today it is exporting sizable amounts to the United States and on the verge of producing 1 million barrels a day.

Some interesting graphs at the link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/while-venezuelas-oil-ebbs-colombias-flows/2011/09/16/gIQAw5BdYK_graphic.html

[COLGATE4]

1. OMG. Do you mean that we're buying

that nasty, blood-soaked Colombian oil???? [sarcasm]

[hack89]

2. It would appear so. nt

[The Magistrate]

3. Colombia's Output Rose 5% And Its Exports Dropped About 20%, Sir, Over The Last Ten Years

[hack89]

4. I would imagine the new output went to meet increased domestic demand

the OP says that the Colombian government anticipated become a net importer.


I think the more salient point is how Chavez wrecked his oil industry.

[The Magistrate]

5. Over The Period Of The Graphs, Sir, Colombian Production Has Barely Budged

So the real point of interest is the distortion embodied in the headline of the article you cite concerning Colombian production....

[hack89]

7. So Venezuelan oil production has not ebbed? Seems pretty accurate to me.

St Hugo fucked up his oil industry - that's what caught my eye.

[The Magistrate]

9. Ebbing Production, Sir, Does Not Necessarily Indicate Someone 'Fucked Up His Industry'

Your graphs indicate a substantial increase in production followed immediately on the firings you claim ruined the industry, and this after a great decline in production while those persons were employed. Venezuelan production has only recently dipped below the nadir reached while these persons were employed. So any attempt to argue their firings caused a decline in production is extremely shaky.

A variety of reasons for a decline in production are possible, including a policy to conserve a resource and support a price level. During the period covered by the graphs, oil prices have on average increased steadily: there was a bit of a fall-off in 2008, after which the increase resumed,almost to '08 levels, and the price stands now at about five and a half times what it was in 1999. This greatly exceeds general levels of price inflation world-wide, and so lessened exports of oil will bring exporters an income that still has grown substantially over that same period.

[hack89]

10. But when you also consider the rampant inflation and skyrocketing crime rate

it is more likely that mis-governance is the root cause. He certainly seems to be fucking up everything else.

[The Magistrate]

11. Not Really, Sir

That comment simply demonstrates you start with a conclusion, and try to scratch up facts and arguments in support of same, rather than beginning with study and from that reaching a conclusion.

On this particular subject, you cannot even demonstrate that a reduction in oil production is a result of mis-management, but merely parrot a propaganda that clearly distorts the significance of facts it contains.

[hack89]

12. Ok. nt

[The Magistrate]

13. You Face A Basic Problem Here, Sir

Over the course of Col. Chavez' rule, the proportion of Venezuelan households below the national poverty line has declined by about two fifths, and the per capita food consumption of Venezuelans has increased by a bout a quarter.

[hack89]

14. And they have record inflation, price controls, and massive government borrowing

you really think this is going to end well?

[The Magistrate]

15. Venezuela's Debt To G.D.P. Ratio, Sir, Is Better Than That Of The United States

Between the government pushing up minimum wage standards, and the price controls you decry, the inflation does not seem to be biting with great force. You still fail to engage in any meaningful way the facts of improved living standards, by objective measures, enjoyed by poor Venezuelans during the period Col.Chavez has been President. Nor do you engage the destructive effects of monied opposition to his government, particularly in the 2002-204 period. Among other things, you seem completely unaware of how this relates to the oil industry graphs you cited in your original post here.

[hack89]

21. But our economy is not built on a house of cards

oil prices take a dive and their economy is toast.

[The Magistrate]

25. Now That, Sir, Is Comedy Gold....

And a frank confession on your part you have nothing substantial to say on this or any other economic matter.

[hack89]

27. Of course - if you say so it must be true. nt

[The Magistrate]

28. Our Economy Fell From Putting Houses On The Card, Sir

Frequently on cards that never should have been issued. Our apparent prosperity has for years depended on a pyramid of credit, piled up to amounts that dwarf actual assets, and when this house of cards collapsed, so did employment, and a great deal of imagined ownership, collapse in consequence in this country.

[hack89]

29. Except we don't have

food shortages, high unemployment, high inflation, declining productivity, skyrocketing crime, price controls. Venezula used to be a net food exporter - now they have to import food.

[The Magistrate]

30. Now You Are Just Getting Silly, Sir

Venezuela has been importing substantial portions of its food supply for decades, and the trend set in with the full exploitation of oil reserves in the fifties of the last century. By the mid-eighties, agricultural products barely registered as a percentage of national exports. Do not mistake the export of cash crops like coffee or tobacco, or the export of meat priced well above what most in the domestic market can pay, for an agricultural economy that produces food in excess of local demand, and exports the surplus. Venezuela, well before Col. Chavez was elected President, imported a great proportion if its cereals, particularly wheat, but also sorghum, used for feed, and rice: corn enjoyed some government production until the nineties, when it, too,became an item of import. At this point in the typical Venezuelan diet, cereals accounted for the great preponderance of calories consumed ( they still are the major proportion ), and so the typical diet a quarter century ago was largely derived from imports.

[hack89]

33. I was wrong about the food, right about every thing else. nt

[The Magistrate]

34. Care To Say, Sir, What Venezuela's Inflation Rate Was Over Several Years Before Col. Chavez?

Just ticking off a list of bullet points is not going to help you much, if you have no idea what the background is.

[hack89]

36. It has always been high - economic mismanagement is a constant theme in Venezuela

but the present high levels are due to St Hugo's policies

President Hugo Chavez's government is likely to spend heavily this year to rev up the economy during his re-election bid, and that could worsen one of Venezuela's biggest problems: 27-percent annual inflation that is already close to the highest in the world.

Chavez has started ramping up spending ahead of the October vote, and economists warn that more money injected into the economy will jolt prices. The government predicts 22 percent inflation in 2012, but the investment bank Barclays Capital projects that it could top 36 percent.
The oil-exporting country has had the highest inflation in the Americas for six years running. No other country is even close, according to the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America.

"The government will embark on a massive spending spree to stoke economic growth in the run-up to the vote," the group said in a report. "Venezuela will continue to issue large amounts of debt to finance spending ... in order to sustain this growth and ensure Chavez's re-election. This profligacy will aggravate current financial distortions."

The price of a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of beef already has risen from the equivalent of $6.51 to $9.77 in the past year, while a kilogram of sugar has gone from 87 cents to $2.56, and is still hard to find in stores. The government-set price for a liter (quart) bottle of corn oil stands at $1.40, but it's usually absent in stores and sold illegally by street vendors at $4.50 or more.

http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-03/world/30587133_1_venezuela-inflation-government-spending-food-prices

I was just wondering why Hugo can't do any better than his predecessors? The countries around him seem to be doing just fine - why is Venezuela lagging their neighbors in economic performance?

[The Magistrate]

38. You Make It Painfully Obvious, Sir, You Do Not Know Enough To Know How Little You Know

Inflation in Venezuela is now lower than it was prior to Col. Chavez's election as President, drastically so, and has been so throughout his time in office. Inflation is now back up to roughly the point it reached in 2003, at the height of the 'business strike' aimed at crippling his government. Even this level it is less than a third of the inflation rates shortly before Col. Chavez was elected President.

What was it about the policies of Col. Chavez predecessors, do you suppose, that managed to produce inflation running between fifty and one hundred percent annually for a decade, as opposed to the fifteen to thirty percent per year rates under Col. Chavez?

[hack89]

39. So your position is that he is somewhat less incompetent then his predecessors?

Ok - if that's the best you have. Now tell my why he is implementing policies that lead to high inflation and food shortages. We can talk about the out of control crime rate later.

[The Magistrate]

42. Again, Sir, You Have No Facts, Only Cheap, Off The Shelf Slogans

Col. Chavez has reduced inflation by roughly two thirds compared to his predecessors: that is the fact. This seems not to fit what you desire the facts to be, but that is your problem, and no one else's.

[hack89]

44. Yet he has implemented policies that are pushing his people back into poverty

that is what inflation does. How do you justify his policies when common sense tells you that they will push food prices higher and higher? He has been in power long enough to have fix things - but they are getting worst.

[hack89]

22. "Food fight: How to destroy an industry"

"SOMETHING is rotten in the state of Venezuela: over 2,300 container-loads (and counting) of decomposing food, imported by the government last year and never distributed. The scandal is particularly embarrassing for President Hugo Chávez, since it comes amid growing shortages of basic foodstuffs in state-run grocery chains. But rather than rethink his statist food and agriculture policy, the president has declared “economic war” on the private sector

PDVAL is a subsidiary of Petróleos de Venezuela, the state oil giant. It was created in 2008, in an oblique recognition that another state-run food chain, Mercal, was failing to do its job. PDVAL’s grandiose objective is to achieve “full food sovereignty” and to stamp out what Mr Chávez claims is “hoarding and smuggling” by the private sector. Since 2003, the government has imposed price controls on many foodstuffs. In that year the government defeated a business-led strike which came close to paralysing the economy. The private sector has since faced mounting harassment.
The results have been persistent shortages and soaring inflation: the price of food and drink rose by 21% in the first five months of 2010, according to the Central Bank. Elías Jaua, the vice-president, this week blamed inflation on “speculators [linked to] political interests seeking destabilisation as part of a campaign strategy”, before a legislative election in September.

Basic goods are scarcer in Mercal and PDVAL shops than in private supermarkets, according to a survey by Datanálisis, a polling company. But the government is stepping up expropriations of farms, food manufacturers and distributors, in a bid to achieve what it calls state “hegemony” over the food supply. On June 7th it announced the takeover of 18 more food companies accused of violating regulations."

http://www.economist.com/node/16326418

"Food shortages worry Venezuelans

During a recent visit to Guaicaipuro, a traditional market in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, a fresh meat refrigerator sat empty at a grocery. Many consumers looking for beef, poultry or fish had to go home empty-handed.

The produce section looked well stocked with plenty of fruits and vegetables. But consumers shopping at Guaicaipuro complained that prices, even for basic products, had skyrocketed."

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-13/americas/world_americas_venezuela-food-shortages_1_food-shortages-traditional-venezuelan-dish-guaicaipuro?_s=PM:AMERICAS

[Zorra]

23. The Economist is a free trader propaganda rag owned by the 1%, (half owned by the Rothschilds).

Very Third Way-ish it appears. I'm sure they just love Chavez, no?

Golly, I wonder if they might possibly have some reason to have an anti-populist, anti-labor agenda? Possibly not the most objective journalism to look to when discussing a burgeoning socialist state. They sure seem to hate the Occupy Movement; I wonder why?

The Economist...

The Economist claims it "is not a chronicle of economics."[6] Rather, it aims "to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress."[7] It takes an editorial stance which is supportive of free trade, globalisation, government health and education spending[citation needed], as well as other, more limited forms of governmental intervention. It targets highly educated readers and claims an audience containing many influential executives and policy-makers.[8]

The publication belongs to The Economist Group, half of which is owned by the Financial Times, a subsidiary of Pearson PLC. A group of independent shareholders, including many members of the staff and the Rothschild banking family of England,[9] owns the rest. A board of trustees formally appoints the editor, who cannot be removed without its permission. In addition, about two thirds of the 75 staff journalists are based in London, despite the global emphasis.[10]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist

[hack89]

24. Can you actual refute the points made in the article?

shooting the messenger implies you can't.

[The Magistrate]

31. Since You Put This Eighteen Month Old Story Up So Frequently, Sir, Have You Any Context For It?

Any information, say, on total amounts of foodstuffs imported, through which agencies, their distribution, that sort of thing?

"Enquiring minds want to know!"

[hack89]

32. The other article is very recent and demonstrates a definite trend

Why don't we address the big picture.

Venezuela has high inflation, high unemployment, price controls, food shortages, high crime and high government borrowing. All of this with an economy that is completely depend on the price of oil.

It takes very rosy glasses to see this as a triumph for St Hugo and Bolivarian economics.

[The Magistrate]

35. In Other Words, Sir, You Have No Idea

You do not know what the levels of foodstuffs imported are, or what quantities are produced domesticly, how imports are handled and through which agencies, how distribution is managed. You rely on anecdote presented in isolation, that you cannot place in context. You have already demonstrated by a major mis-statement concerning Venezuelan agriculture that you lack basic knowledge of the place.

[hack89]

37. So you deny high inflation, price controls and food shortages? Really?

http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-03/world/30587133_1_venezuela-inflation-government-spending-food-prices

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-13/americas/world_americas_venezuela-food-shortages_1_food-shortages-traditional-venezuelan-dish-guaicaipuro?_s=PM:AMERICAS

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/7849749/Chavez-pushes-Venezuela-into-food-war.html

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/11/09/venezuela-a-different-kind-of-food-crisis/#axzz1j4y26aEf

http://en.terra.com/latin-in-america/pictures/venezuela_faces_food_crisis/70741

Stop dodging the issue - Hugo is having a hard time feeding his people.

[The Magistrate]

40. The Dodging, Sir, Is All Yours

No one seriously disputes that the actual stock of foodstuffs, and consumption per capita of foodstuffs, has increased in the last decade in Venezuela. You certainly have put up nothing to contradict this.

There are certainly difficulties in distribution and pricing, but you clearly lack sufficient knowledge of the situation to contribute to a discussion concerning them, and it would be a poor use of my time at present to undertake your education in the matter.

[hack89]

41. So several years of inflation and food shortages are merely "difficulties"? Got it.

Is having the one of the highest murder rates in the world just another difficult? Certainly can't be a sign of a society unraveling at the edges, can it?

[The Magistrate]

43. Again, Sir: Get Back To Me With Facts About Production And Import Totals, And The Like

They are available, though you would have to put in a bit of effort. Until you do, there is little point to continue; you have already made it abundantly clear you lack basic knowledge of the situation, to a crippling degree.

"Say something once, why say it again?"

[hack89]

45. Lets look at our unravelling society checklist shall we?

1. High inflation - check
2. High wealth inequality - check
3. Extremely high levels of violence - check
4. Brain drain of the best and the brightest - check
5. Leader identifies with and admires dictators and despots - check
6. Creation of a separate military force that answers to the leader - check


I understand why you avoid the big picture - minutia is a good place to hide from reality. Fortunately for the people of Venezuela, it doesn't look like Hugo will be around much longer.

[joshcryer]

16. You Damn With Feint Praise, At Best, Sir

Two papers on the subject show us the way.

Declining Inequality in Latin America: Some Economics, Some Politics: http://www.cgdev.org/files/1425092_file_Birdsall_Lustig_McLeod_FINAL.pdf

Inequality and Poverty under Latin America's New Left Regimes: http://econ.tulane.edu/RePEc/pdf/tul1117.pdf

The Populist approach is nothing to be praised over the Social Democracy approach. Being able to do a lot with a windfall of revenues does not constitute a stable system. The crash is coming and when it does it will likely be blamed on the dirty imperialists, imo.

[The Magistrate]

19. It Is Not My Contention, Sir, Social Democracy Is Inferior

It is my contention, and is pretty well demonstrated fact, that most of the blather aimed at Col. Chavez in our press and here is propaganda on 'free-marketeer' lines, that deliberately distorts the situation, and ignores real improvements. Neither of your papers seriously disagree; they point out left regimes of both sorts improve the situation, while free-marketeer regimes had harmful effects. Thus on the showing of your own sources, Col. Chavez has been an improvement, just not so great a one as there might have been had another path been chosen. However, your papers do overlook the questions of whether another path could have been chosen, and what the effects of resistance to reform by those actors benefiting from extreme inequalities, both domestic and foreign, has had on the course of events in the regimes denoted as 'left populist'. For there is no doubt whatever there has been deliberate wrecking by opponents of these regimes, ranging from attempts to create shortages by hoarding and capital expatriation to serious attempts at armed coup. Obviously, where the situation could be described with only a little exaggeration as 'war in all but name', progress is likely to be slowed. Willful opposition is always more difficult to overcome than mere natural or systemic obstacles, however formidable.

[joshcryer]

20. Yet Social Democracies Did Not Have Such Opposition From External Forces

I wonder why that is? Probably because they played nice without reverting to the oft cited "anti-imperialist" Emmanuel Goldstein which can only burn bridges. Chavez could've been great, sadly, he was not as great as he could've been. The elections in 2012 are going to surprise a lot of people, particularly the "anti-imperialist" left. I only hope Venezuela is not thrown under the bus because people don't like the outcome, despite it being a decision by the Venezuelan people. Granted, the outcome is not set in stone, but the writing is certainly on the wall. You don't become more deadly than Iraq, of all places, without repercussions.

[The Magistrate]

26. The Attitude Of The Elites Has Something To Do With It, Too, Sir

As does the attitude and experience of the populace, derived from local history. The governments your papers call 'left populist' seem to have arisen where people are particularly disenchanted with their former governments, and their long histories of corrupt mis-rule. Those they refer to as 'social democracies' have had more stable and democratic histories, and moved towards reformist governments more cleanly.

Your comment concerning how people should accept and support the result of an election, as it is 'a decision by the Venezuelan people' works both ways. Col. Chavez has won election twice,with large majorities, and stood off a coup attempt largely because of his popularity, and the popular distaste for his opposition, yet he is routinely referred to here as a dictator and an autocrat and an enemy of democracy and the people of Venezuela.

[Zorra]

6. Gosh, maybe Columbia could pony up some free heating oil to heat American households

that are in need, like Venezuela just did.

In its Seventh Year, CITGO-Venezuela Heating Oil Program Helps 400,000 Needy Americans

http://venezuela-us.org/2011/12/13/in-its-seventh-year-citgo-venezuela-heating-oil-program-helps-400000-needy-americans/

Obviously, Columbia is doing so much better than Venezuela, and can more afford to help their neighbors in need.

[hack89]

8. A loss-leader to prop up St Hugo's reputation

what do you think about him laying off all those workers and destroying his country's oil industry? It's gonna get ugly when it hits rock bottom.

[Umbral]

18. Well, there's my chief question answered. Bye

[joshcryer]

17. Venezuela to Invest $5 Billion in Orinoco Oil Belt, Chavez Says

The South American country expects to increase production to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2012 and 4 million barrels a day in 2014, from about 3 million barrels a day now, Chavez said. Venezuela wants to produce 6 million barrels of oil a day in 2019 and 10 million barrels daily by 2030, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-31/venezuela-to-invest-5-billion-in-orinoco-oil-belt-chavez-says.html