There is Zero Chance that a Kenosha County jury (or any Wisconsin jury) convicts Kyle Rittenhouse

[greenjar_01]

of first degree intentional homicide. It's at best an opening negotiating position for the DA, who will be lucky to get a plea deal to second degree reckless homicide (more or less a manslaughter charge) in this case.

It's gonna be a real shit show.

[Proud liberal 80]

1. Yeah

Reminds me of how it was back in the day in the South when no one was ever convicted of killing black people.

[Klaralven]

23. All three of the guys he shot were white

[Proud liberal 80]

25. I know

And before I posted this, I asked myself if I should state that I knew the victims were white because I had a feeling someone was going to reply with your response....still doesn’t take away from the main point that I was trying to make

[Demsrule86]

56. the cute spelling doesn't make this any less offensive. You should delete or edit it.

[redstatebluegirl]

2. I can see them not even sending him to trial.

They will take Manslaughter, give him 2 years in minimum security and call it a day.

[greenjar_01]

4. There's no manslaughter statute in WI, but 2nd degree reckless is more or less Man 2

in other states.

That's where he'll land, I suspect.

I agree: he'll do 2-3yrs in an (under 21) juvenile if anything.

[Sogo]

9. That just doesn't seem right!

[cwydro]

68. Did you ever find a link about his mom driving him there?

I’ve googled and everything., just cant find it.

[Cosmocat]

60. While I suspect he won't do well in jail, once he gets out

he will be able to cash in and enjoy the adoration as a conservative hero.

[orwell]

3. Good thing there's no systemic racism...

...and Coronavirus is all gone.

Now I can go back to watching my Apprentice reruns and drinking coffee and bleach...

[Sogo]

5. Not even with the social media post history?

[greenjar_01]

7. Try finding twelve randoms in Kenosha County without similar

[Polybius]

34. What did he say on social media?

I have only read that he was super pro-blue lives matter. Did he threaten anyone?

[snowybirdie]

6. Perhaps

Since he crossed state lines, federal charges can apply? Anyone know?

[0rganism]

10. yep AG Barr will get right on that

we can definitely expect some super-swift justice from the feds

[greenjar_01]

11. I doubt there will be a federal case here for anything

I think some people don't get the geography here either. Antioch is literally a mile away from the IL-WI border. You could run a 5k out and back from lots of places in Antioch and have crossed into Kenosha County and come back home. If you giddy-up, you can drive to downtown Kenosha in under 30 minutes. I know that doesn't have any bearing on crossing state lines, but people need to be clear on this. Antioch, IL is basically an ex-urb of Kenosha; it's not like they traveled from Lincoln Park, or even Winnetka.

[Wellstone ruled]

13. Your take on a

unbiased Jury says a lot. County Clerk of Courts selects the Jury Pool and in that lies issues.

The Kid will end up in Waupun most likely. And walk after his 21st b-day with probation.

[greenjar_01]

16. Always love your posts

But this kid's not going to see the inside of Waupun!

Min-medium at best, and probably in a juvie context.

[Wellstone ruled]

19. Were is the Juvie lock up now.

Waupun was the bigee when I lived in Wisconny. If you really screwed up you ended up in Waukuesha .

[brush]

8. That's a concern. I hope this isn't like in the zimmerman case...

where they over-charged. Maybe this is a first offer that will be reduced to whatever Wisconsin's equivalent of second degree or Man 1.

[exboyfil]

17. The ironic thing is that his justification defense

could be applied to Martin if he turned and shot Zimmerman when he chased him. Ask a Trumper about that when they say the boy was just defending himself.

The second shooting could also be using lethal force to prevent a lawful citizen's arrest. Another thing to ask a Trumper.

[llashram]

12. the kid will

get a slap on the wrist along with a light sentence in a fairly safe jail type environment. Come out serve a probationary sentence maybe with some safe community service while being lionized by the murderous RW militias as a hero fighting for truth, justice for trump humping white people and their lackeys of all faiths, races and cultures and the trump MAGA way. American democracy is under attack and in a slow-moving but speeds are rapidly picking up fast for RW-GOP-Militia coup. I hope enough patriots see what's happening to be prepared for possible scenarios where trump and GOP-militia-brownshirts STAY IN POWER JUST LIKE HIS BFF PUTIN IS TILL 2036 ON HIS WON REFERENDUM.

Think they haven't been talking with Putin schooling the orange menace and key GOP members on what to do to ensure a successful coup? Don't forget "peace and safety". Hell, Hitler was able to do it because of Versailles and the German economy, at that time being a wreck.

Never mind that now trump is responsible, the Democrats will be the culprit and he also will use warnings about the COMMUNISTS, Socialist etc causing violent protests. Scaring all his base into a murderous frenzy.

I feel Kenosha protest deaths are the 2020 Ft. Sumpter. I hope I'm wrong.

[Boomerproud]

29. You're not wrong.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. Why?

Per this, from Data USA, the demographic is not that dissimilar from most Midwest municipal areas.
Other Midwestern communities don't have "zero chance" prosecution issues with murders on video.

The 5 largest ethnic groups in Kenosha, WI are White (Non-Hispanic) (67.3%), White (Hispanic) (13%), Black or African American (Non-Hispanic) (10.8%), Some Other Race (Hispanic) (2.57%), and Two or More Races (Non-Hispanic) (2.36%).

[greenjar_01]

18. Kenosha County stretches well west into rural areas

Check a map. been up there a bit for kids' camps and whatnot. It...well...something.

[dalton99a]

20. It is Trumpland. What the sheriff said about blacks is the prevailing attitude

I am pessimistic

[greenjar_01]

21. It is 100% Trumpland

Again, people are missing some of the geography here. Antioch is a mile from the IL-WI border; you can do a short run to western Kenosha County and back from pretty much Main Street Antioch..

[Celerity]

63. it looks like the northern city limit is literally the Wisconsin state line

[greenjar_01]

64. I mean, I wouldn't call Antioch a city, but yeah

It hugs the line.

[ProfessorGAC]

22. Moderate Shift In Demographics

75% white, instead of 67%. Nearly identical to my county, and i don't believe it would he that hard to convict a shooter where video exists here.
Admittedly, our county is more than 4x the population, but the jury pool demand is lower.
We disagree that it's zero chance.
In fact, I think it's far closer to 100% than zero.

[greenjar_01]

24. Yeah, well, you're gonna be a big wrong on that

Time will tell, I suppose.

[ProfessorGAC]

26. Why Wait?

You've already proclaimed your omniscience.

[greenjar_01]

27. Come on, operate in good faith please

I'm making a prediction based on my knowledge of the area. That's not proclaiming omniscience. No need to be nasty about it.

[sarisataka]

15. It is greater than zero

but not the slam dunk people wish/believe it is.

With the caveat that the only information I have is from the media which could be inaccurate, some reports are that the first victim initiated the interaction and tried to take the gun from him. That would be an opening for a self defense argument, which could be enough for reasonable doubt.

Two things weaken that however, one that he walked past the police rather than turn himself in. That gives the impression that he knew he was not acting in self defense. Second, and perhaps more important, is that he was there illegally and illegally carrying a weapon. That may take away any affirmative defense he could present.

Regardless of how it plays out I expect your prediction of the show will be accurate.

[bluestarone]

30. My fear is

When (IF) he's found Not Guilty, MORE of this shit is in our future!

[maxsolomon]

40. More of this shit is in our immediate future.

Like this weekend in Portland.

[Crunchy Frog]

31. Well, maybe some vigilante will take care of matters...

[Midnight Writer]

32. I think the first shooting is the key. I'm not seeing much about that or how it started.

[Polybius]

33. Is there a video of the first shooting?

Did eyewitnesses publicly say what happened? I've yet to hear much about it.

[sl8]

37. There are videos and at least one witness.

I don't have any video links, but there is one witness account in the complaint:


Criminal complaint (excerpt)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213986367

Criminal complaint (full, pdf) :
https://www.mystateline.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2020/08/Rittenhouse.pdf

[Polybius]

41. Thank you for that!

My heart goes out to those shot, so please don't take this the wrong way, buy why did they approach a right-winger with an assault rifle? I don't doubt their braveness, but why? Once again, I am in no way victim blaming.

[sl8]

44. No problem.

As for the "why", I'm afraid I can't help there. Human behavior is beyond me.

[sir pball]

47. Crap, that eyewitness report does not look good

In a cold, purely legal sense, if Rosenbaum pursued Rittenhouse and then tried to grab his rifle...it's at least arguably justifiable. Shit shit shit.

[Dem2]

55. If the shooter was black

He'd be called a hero (hate to say this, but we know it's true.) Now only the left is calling him a hero for attempting to stop the killer.

[Devil Child]

35. My prediction: Kyle Rittenhouse will walk free.

[JonLP24]

49. I find it odd right wingers are rallying around him

They are not supposed to admit out loud mass shooters are their heros.

[LanternWaste]

36. Cool prophecy...

But your record at accurate prognostications and reading chicken entrails seems lacking.

At best.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. So many bad takes in this thread.

The state wins the lion's share of cases that goes to trial. I can't find the exact numbers but if my memory serves me well it's over ninety percent.

[JonLP24]

50. I agree

Especially the manslaughter idea which is for accidentally or not meaning to kill someone. Not to mention "minimum security" for him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. For every Zimmerman that walks there are ninety nine who don't.

And if you have an ideological axe to grind it's likely you are not going to be chosen as a juror.

[greenjar_01]

59. I agree...I'm referring to this specific case

Not a general statement.

[USALiberal]

48. Fix your quote! nt

[In It to Win It]

39. Yeah...

[inwiththenew]

42. What are the odds of getting a jury with zero Trumpers on it?

This guy is a hero of the right. It goes well beyond George Zimmerman.

[greenjar_01]

45. Low

[uponit7771]

53. +1

[Dawson Leery]

43. At a bare minimum, the myth of the nice midwest is shattered.

[Yavin4]

46. And this is why I really don't feel sorry for these people when they lose their jobs to China

I really don't. They don't care about anyone in the world except themselves and their race. So, why should I care that they've lost their jobs to global trade.

[JonLP24]

57. The reason why I even live in Mesa

Is because Motorola had a manufacturing plant here that my mom moved out here. She bought a home and everything and she could afford until they closed down and went to China following PNTR.

FWIW we care about others which is why we don't vote for Republicans.

[uponit7771]

52. He was underage with an automatic pistol grip rifle, that's illegal in Wisconsin and Illinois IINM

[dustyscamp]

54. Yeah and that fraking sucks

[greenjar_01]

58. It sure does

[gulliver]

61. I actually don't care what happens to the messed up kid all that much. Trump's the one to blame.

I think we need to see the forest despite the trees. If Trump weren't president, we probably wouldn't have even had this police shooting and the resulting protests. But we certainly wouldn't have had a broken unit teenager rushing in and both looking for an bringing trouble. It's Trump's fault. And the Republican Senate's. And a dash of blame may go to Facebook too if the kid read the nutty posts they didn't take down.

The kid? You can't punish him enough to bring his victims back no matter what you do. But we can vote in November and stop Trump from inciting more kids like him.

[Buckeyeblue]

62. I think he'll get convicted.

It'll be this time next year at the soonest before there is a trial. Maybe even longer. People claiming they support him now, won't even remember his name by the time his trial comes up.

[greenjar_01]

65. Good point

[tenderfoot]

66. And what of the families of the victims filing civil suits?

[rictofen]

67. I suspect it's going to be even less than that

He'll walk on any murder or manslaughter-equivalent charges and might only get dinged for the possession by a minor misdemeanor.