*Biden up ten in Arizona*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/

[Peacetrain]

1. Alrighty now!! you started my day out right

[lagomorph777]

2. Woooh! Morning Scab showed more of this poll and it's looking good in many BG states.

[Norbert]

3. Hopefully this quashes the Debbie Downers.

If he wins by 10 there is little dump and Team Putin can do without it looking very suspicious.

[Demsrule86]

5. The usual suspects who for the most part did not support Biden to begin with are out

in force enjoying an outlier poll at 538...I have to say 538 has been very erratic this time.

[beachbumbob]

4. Mark Kelly's coattails and perhaps a realization of trump/gop intent to kill Social Security and

Medicare is setting in on the senior citizens of Arizona ( largest demographic voting block that votes)

[Wounded Bear]

19. Consider that there has been an uptick in relos to AZ, too...

Largely from blue states like WA, OR and CA as seniors retire to AZ. Many of them are traditional Dems to begin with, so the ratio of blue to red voters has been swinging.

Throw in the SS/Medicare thing and the drive to register and motivate Hispanics and you have a winner.

[beachbumbob]

21. this is happening thru out the south, and contributes to the grwoing trend of these states

becoming "purple".

[mitch96]

6. I've found if you want to get a conservatives attention about anything that matters just say

"Fox news reports"...or "Fox news just said" Always get's em. And then tell the truth.. Fox is their channel and if faux says it's true, it's true...
m

[Johnny2X2X]

7. 12 point Swing in this Poll!!!!

Morning Consult, a B/C rated poll, had Trump +2 before the conventions, now it's Biden +10 after the conventions.

WOW!!!

[oswaldactedalone]

8. This poll is an outlier

Ignore it and keep working.

[BannonsLiver]

12. This is a thread about polling

It's not intended to be used for people to work through their own 2016 PTSD.

[awesomerwb1]

9. Outlier

No way Biden's really up 10 in AZ.

[BannonsLiver]

11. Says who?

[awesomerwb1]

13. I speak for myself.

It's called an opinion. Google it.

[BannonsLiver]

15. Ah, I thought you had some special insight, like a scientific poll.

Turns out it’s just an opinion. And we all know what they say about those.

[awesomerwb1]

17. You're hilarious!

This poll is as scientific as trump is. Unless of course you can provide and enrich everyone's experience with some more "scientific" evidence? gfy

[helpisontheway]

14. Are the polls for Kelly in Arizona outliers too?nt

[Demsrule86]

16. Right...doom and gloom...if it is good news, an outlier but if it is bad new,why it is the gospel!

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I agree...there is no chance Biden is up 10 in Arizona

The ideological numbers are like an immovable pillar. They do not collapse and allow free flow over the top. Arizona had 41% conservatives in the 2016 exit poll and 40% in the 2018 exit poll. As I've emphasized, the Democratic nominee has not won a state above 37% conservatives since 1996. So while it is technically correct that this is an opinion to not believe the 10 point margin, it is an accurate opinion that anyone who does believe the margin is an outright fool.

When a state like this is shifting there is immense resistance from the foundational side. The first time over the top is barely over the top. Republicans have greater upside when a state is shifting in their favor because they own the higher ideological number to begin with. Therefore when a state like Iowa moves from 37% conservatives in 2012 to 40% in 2016 all of a sudden it explodes to 10 point margin for Trump.

The ideological resistance in Iowa 2016 was 23% liberals. The ideological resistance in Arizona 2020 will be in the neighborhood of 38-40% conservatives. That's an easy way to look at it, to understand why the dam can't open as wide. I don't care if anyone accepts it or not. If you look at enough results over the years it is impossible to deny.

I hope Arizona drops to 38% range. Biden might be able to pick off a number like that. I do not believe he'll pick off anything in the 40s, which would describe Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. Not out of the question in those states but I would expect close defeats unless the national margin is 7+ (North Carolina), 8+ (Georgia) and 10+ (Texas).

[beachbumbob]

22. hard to imagine BUT look at how far ahead Mark Kelly has been and remains, so its

more true than your opinion is .

[BlueWavePsych]

10. Hmmm ...

The latest survey, conducted Aug. 28-30 among 12,966 likely voters, found Biden 8 points ahead of Trump, 51 percent to 43 percent. That includes a 12-point lead among women (53 percent to 41 percent), an 11-point lead among independent voters (48 percent to 37 percent) and an 11-point lead among voters in the suburbs (52 percent to 41 percent).

The figures, which are nearly identical to polling conducted Aug. 14-16, come after daily tracking of the head-to-head contest showed a narrow improvement in Trump’s standing against Biden on Friday. That post-convention bump proved to be fleeting, with daily tracking on Saturday showing Trump trailing Biden 43 percent to 51 percent and Sunday’s responses putting Biden back to a 9-point lead and 52 percent of the vote. The Saturday and Sunday polling came with respective 2- and 1-point margins of error.

Similarly, movement away from Biden and toward Trump that was detected on Friday among white voters and suburbanites was short-lived, with the three-day survey showing no significant national shifts among those groups.

I'll take it ... with a barrel of salt.

[sarcasmo]

18. Blue State.