**Brand New A + Rated Selzer Nat'l Poll LV* Biden 49% - Trump 41%**

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-09/Selzer%20Co%20GCNP%202219%20Methodology.pdf

Interesting Tidbit- Selzer was only off by 9/10 of a percent in 2016:

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rklCDpOEK78Q/v0

[RandySF]

1. Not shabby coming right off the convention.

[tman]

2. That's trump's 'bounce'. Great.

[videohead5]

3. Trump can't win

Being stuck around 40%.

[infullview]

9. I think you need to read this and be concerned...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/sep/02/electoral-college-explained-biden-uphill-battle-us-election

[BannonsLiver]

12. Meh

I’ve read it. This is a thread about recent polling data for those who are interested in polling data. It’s not necessarily a place for people to work through their 2016 PTSD. Plenty of doomer threads for that.

[infullview]

24. I post this out, but not as doom and gloom as you assert.

I simply mean we need to get out the vote. The electoral college is hugely skewed as pointed out in this article. BTW you might also want to heed the concerns expressed by Michael Moore who is again predicting that Trump may win. He's got the Russians, He's F'd the post office - in strategic battleground states. It's entirely conceivable he could really mess things up to a point of exhaustion.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. It's mathematically improbable for Trump to win the EC if he loses the popular vote by 5+.

[Klaralven]

21. I'm not so sure

The Northeast and the Pacific Coast states have shifted to the left and are going to vote for Biden by huge margins, in which case a lot of Biden votes will have no effect on the outcome.

The election will be won or lost in a lot of states that are much closer to 50-50.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. No. It's mathematically improbable.

If Biden wins the popular vote by 7+ points, he'll have won by at least 10 million more votes than Trump. There isn't enough votes in those states to make up for that gap and Biden still somehow lose Florida, Arizona and, say, PA.

It can't work mathematically.

[infullview]

25. And 20% or more of those votes will come from mail in ballots which cast a cloud over your math

[Drunken Irishman]

26. No it doesn't.

[videohead5]

16. He can't win with 41%

Of the vote unless there is a strong 3rd party and that does not exist. He received 46% of the vote in 2016 and won by the skin of his teeth.

[Klaralven]

22. If you split the 10% undecided, you have Trump 46% and Biden 54% in the original post

[shotten99]

4. Great news!

Now treat it like the numbers were reversed and take nothing for granted!

[Le Roi de Pot]

6. Trump was expecting a bounce .. But someone removed all the springs from his Trumpoline

[oasis]

7. I really dig A+ polls.

[Lonestarblue]

8. The poll questions and results are interesting to read.

Question 7 asks about the economy, and 52% approve of the job Trump is doing. Yet in Question 10, 53% say the economy is worse than it was at the beginning of 2017 when Trump took over. The next question asks about the economy for the next year, and 54% say it will get better. Only 27% say it will get worse. Clearly, a majority is not blaming Trump for the job losses and economic downturn, and they expect most of the economic impact from virus to go away soon. That amazes me because every economic indicator (not the stock market) says we’re in a recession and could be there for years. The media is doing a terrible job on the economic fallout from the virus. Of course, unemployment payments have helped for now, but many lost jobs are not coming back, especially in areas like the travel industry, for years.

Another question is #13 relating to various effects of the virus, like loss of wages, food insecurity, etc. A high percentage of respondents do not expect to be affected in any way by the virus, with answers ranging from a low of 60 (lost wages) to a high of 88 (difficulty getting food) depending on each aspect. Most were in the 70s. I would have expected far more people to be affected in some way by the virus considering the number of unemployed. A majority still disapproves of the job Trump is doing—55 disapprove versus 39 approve, but the high number of people who do not expect to be affected by the virus may mean that it will have less importance to voters than I thought.

Very interesting read.

[SharonClark]

10. Many people aren't impacted financially by the

pandemic. Everyone in my family who is not retired is working as much as ever and only three neighbors, two servers and a restaurant owner, lost any work hours. I don’t know how the Cares Act impacted their finances.

The pandemic disproportionately impacts lower paid job holders, those who can least afford it.

[RazzleCat]

13. Yes, in a very sad/weird way I am better off

I am retired, I live on pensions and investments. Market is up/back, pensions stay the same. I am saving so much because I can't travel, so the 15 to 30K in travel, saved. Also saving because everything is eat at home, no theater, no movies, no dining out, no casino. All my budgeted monies for entertainment not being used.

[Buckeyeblue]

11. How could 10% be undecided at this point?

I'm skeptical of that.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. Considering their final poll four years ago had 14% undecided, I believe it.

10% at this stage isn't a lot.

[Buckeyeblue]

17. But in 2016 there were two third party candidates

And after 4 years of Trump, I would think you either like him or you hate him. I don't see much middle ground.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. There's still two third-party candidates this election.

[Buckeyeblue]

19. But they aren't getting the attention the Libertarian and Green Parties attracted

[Drunken Irishman]

20. And that's probably why their numbers are much smaller than 2016.