Bloomberg news has someone from Princeton discussing the effect of the protests on the election

[still_one]

My take on what Professor Wasow is saying is that it is a wash, and that JPMorgan using his research and coming out yesterday to say "to prepare for trump's reelection odds being beneficial to trump" is not reading his analysis correctly

The JP Morgan analyst was also using the internet betting on the election as part of their conclusions, I think is extremely misleading

[judeling]

1. My take also

Actually he sort of implied the there was a pretty intense break-thru early that had faded a bit but shouldn't fade much more except in localized places if there are more triggers.

But the Grinell poll today ask a good question on that

19a. Based on Form A respondents: n=499. MoE: ±4.4% pts. How close do you think the country is to achieving full equality in everyday life for African Americans—Very close 9, pretty close 25, pretty far 25, very far 22, or do you think we are already there 16?


19b. Based on Form B respondents: n=513. MoE: ±4.3% pts. Earlier this year, a Black man named George Floyd died after having been detained by members of the Minneapolis police force. Two medical examiners ruled Floyd's death a homicide. How close do you think the country is to achieving full equality in everyday life for African Americans—
Very close 4, pretty close 16, pretty far 30, very far 32, or do you think we are already there 11?

Look how much framing matters.

[SWBTATTReg]

2. Using betting on the election to forecast said election? Is this now how people truly prepare ...

forecasts and predictions other than plain ol' hard work, footwork, phone banks, the whole works? I don't think so. I'm really surprised that Bloomberg News is pushing this (or they may be simply reporting this as a news item, but still).

There's been numerous polls, at least hundreds and probably thousands by now, to the point that it is sickening and way overdone. Enough now. At least the polls (the reputable ones, not the fake ones that trump grabs desperately at), at least 90% of them, favor Mr. Biden heavily.

And like they say, don't be over confident, cocky, etc., just because the numbers are saying one thing, people are saying something else, etc. Everybody is trying to get in on the action, and be the 'one' who successfully predicted the win. Kind of like Michael Moore making his own prediction (I laugh at his effort, it's no more than what you or I would come up with, in talking to friends, etc.).
I think Michael Moore has lost his special touch that he's started out with, that streak of 'independence' or something, but in any event, I don't pay attention to what he or anyone else says for that matter.

All I know is that I hear far more negatives on trump. I see more and more members of his former support groups dropping out left and right. I hear more desperate yelling and screaming from his own supporters and trump himself. The economy is in a mess. Death is marching across the land and trump continues to ignore it. Totally ignore it and that pisses me off, knowing that everyday Americans are dying and they are being ignored because of trump's political calculus. Disgusting.

[Thekaspervote]

4. +1000

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Betting odds are still influenced by human emotions.

Especially in this context. Sports betting is easier to remove emotion because you have almost a level of science that can go into it. You know the circumstances of the teams, who's really better and who's not. What is their win/loss percentage in games played on the road vs home or in back-to-back games or whatever.

Election betting is different. It's not like picking the winner between the Lakers and the Knicks, where you can compare scores, records and talent. It's often fueled by emotion. Not what the stats say but instead, what their feelings say. After all, up until the end of June, despite Biden consistently leading nationally, and in most the critical swing states, the betting markets still favored Trump - and now, despite no significant change in any of those polls, and despite Biden leading in the betting odds, sometimes by 60%+, from June through all of August, he's now tied with Trump.

How is that explained? Well easy. The bettors are banking on the riots helping Trump's message. Just as they banked on the initial protests helping Biden. Clearly the bettors feel this unrest is different than the unrest seen after the Floyd killing and are now reacting to it.

But there's no data to it. There's no evidence to suggest it's helping Trump. So, it's all fueled on emotion. To be sure, these people often take their role seriously and research these things before making a decision, but unlike sports betting, you're shooting in the dark based off great uncertainty. I can choose the Lakers to win because I know for a fact they have the best record in the NBA and the best player to boot. It's not a risky gambit because that evidence exists they're a very good team. When betting on politics, you're basically assuming something is going to happen without any real, tangible evidence like with sports.

The bettors are assuming this will help Trump - just as they assumed the unrest initially would help Biden.

Unfortunately, despite polling data telling us right now it's not, we really don't know fully - and won't know for a couple more weeks - if this has helped him.