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Preparing for a Disputed Presidential Election: An Exercise in Election Risk Assessment & Management
This was written in 2019. Very long but interesting.
I was looking for procedures for certifying a Presidential election and how fuck face might try to take advantage of an election night lead to claim victory.
This reads like a horror novel.
It’s long.
They lay out several scenarios. One scenario is a state with a Republican run legislature, like Pennsylvania, could certify a different set of results based on Trumps call to arms. This could send conflicting Elector counts to The Senate President. Mike Pence could conceivably be the arbiter of what Elector count to accept
Preparing for a Disputed Presidential Election: An Exercise in Election Risk Assessment and Management
Loyola University Chicago Law Journal
Volume 51
Issue 2 Winter 2019
https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj
This Article considers the possibility that a major dispute over the outcome of the 2020 presidential election could arise, even without foreign interference or some other extraordinary event, but rather just from the ordinary process of counting ballots. Building upon previous research on the “blue shift” phenomenon, whereby adjustments in vote tallies during the canvassing of returns tends to advantage Democratic candidates, it is easy to imagine a dispute arising if this kind of “blue shift” were consequential in the presidential race. Using examples from both Pennsylvania and Arizona, two states susceptible to significant “blue shifts” in previous elections, the article shows how the dispute could reach Congress, where it potentially might metastasize into a full-fledged constitutional crisis. The most frightening scenario is where the dispute remains unresolved on January 20, 2021, the date for the inauguration of the new presidential term, and the military is uncertain as to who is entitled to receive the nuclear codes as commander-in-chief. In order to avoid this risk, Congress should amend the relevant statute, 3 U.S.C. § 15.
Loyola University Chicago Law Journal
Volume 51
Issue 2 Winter 2019
https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj
This Article considers the possibility that a major dispute over the outcome of the 2020 presidential election could arise, even without foreign interference or some other extraordinary event, but rather just from the ordinary process of counting ballots. Building upon previous research on the “blue shift” phenomenon, whereby adjustments in vote tallies during the canvassing of returns tends to advantage Democratic candidates, it is easy to imagine a dispute arising if this kind of “blue shift” were consequential in the presidential race. Using examples from both Pennsylvania and Arizona, two states susceptible to significant “blue shifts” in previous elections, the article shows how the dispute could reach Congress, where it potentially might metastasize into a full-fledged constitutional crisis. The most frightening scenario is where the dispute remains unresolved on January 20, 2021, the date for the inauguration of the new presidential term, and the military is uncertain as to who is entitled to receive the nuclear codes as commander-in-chief. In order to avoid this risk, Congress should amend the relevant statute, 3 U.S.C. § 15.
AXIOS piece on potential “blue shit” in this election.
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