538/Nate went from Biden 'Slightly Favored to Win' to 'Favored to Win''!!

[USALiberal]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[TwilightZone]

1. 70/30

Which happens to be almost exactly what the final 538 prediction was for Clinton/Trump.

I can't believe it's even this close. Of course, it's only close because of the electoral college.

[USALiberal]

4. Makes me nervous! Too close to 2016. nt

[TwilightZone]

7. Agreed.

Because of the EC, it will always appear close, even if the final result isn't. On the bright side, that means that we'll be unlikely to get complacent.

[NCjack]

2. Desperate times require desperate measures. Trump is a desperate president.

[Wounded Bear]

3. 539?

[USALiberal]

5. LOL, 539 is his improved logic! Thanks for letting me know, fixed. nt

[Le Roi de Pot]

6. one point movement FWIW

I would not be happy until it went to 99% Biden win probability


Even then things can go wrong - think Bernie's upset over Hillary in the Michigan primary - Nate had the win probability for Clinton at 95% and Bernie came out tops.

[brooklynite]

8. And at SOME point in the next two months it'll swing back....PANIC!!!!!

[Squinch]

9. I really don't get this one though:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I know it doesn't translate into votes, necessarily, but how the hell is his approval going up?