General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhen it comes to Trump's support, think "Metal Fatigue" for a metaphor
Years have been spent debating whether this or that specific outrage would be the straw that broke the Camel's back when it comes to Trump holding onto a potentially winning share of the electorate. That intrinsically suggests that Trump's hold on the voters that he needs will stand functionally intact until a day when something new and ugly, no matter how big or small it might be, is added to the negative side of his scales, finally tipping the balance against him. Some now think that "last straw" was his comments calling soldiers suckers, and our combat dead losers. That will finally "cost him", it is argued, in a way that praising white supremacists in Charlottesville, or being impeached for soliciting foreign help to interfere in our elections, or repeatedly promising that the virus would simply disappear, or ignoring Russian bounties on our troops etc. so far had failed to do.
But for Trump the damage was already done, and it has been for a long time. It is, so to speak, already baked in. No new ingredient need be added to the mix. In the "normal" course of operations now his Administration, and his reelection chances with it, will inevitably fall apart. Trump may still seem air worthy today, but the wings that are holding him aloft, unseen by the casual naked eye, are riddled by metal fatigue.
Here is part of a definition of metal fatigue taken from Wikipedia:
"Fatigue failures, both for high and low cycle, all follow the same basic steps process of crack initiation, stage I crack growth, stage II crack growth, and finally ultimate failure...
... Once the cracks reach a critical size they propagate quickly during stage II crack growth in a direction perpendicular to the applied force. These cracks can eventually lead to the ultimate failure of the material, often in a brittle catastrophic fashion."
Just normal vibration from the engines, or routine stresses inherent to flight, can trigger that catastrophic failure. It is a process that once begun can not be reversed. Either the metal is replaced or it will fail. And for Donald Trump the stress of trailing in all the polls is putting added pressure on his "electoral wings". Unlike in the waning days of the 2016 election, Trump is no longer a man who can remain on script for more than 24 hours, even if doing so could help preserve his rule. Defection from the edges of his "wining" 2016 electoral coalition: the loss of more college educated white men, of white women from all categories, of many seniors, of many military voters, of increasing numbers of sane Republicans of all stripes from moderate to conservative, these losses force Trump to go all in on his feverish crazy to hold onto to his remaining core support, hoping to turn out more of those type voters in 2020 than he could in 2016. But he loses more voters than he can gain now by so doing, and that in turn causes him to double down again, which loses him more voters than he gains by so doing...
Trump is becoming more extreme daily. "Once the cracks reach a critical size they propagate quickly during stage II crack growth..." We are rapidly moving toward his catastrophic failure. It will be ugly. It may be violent, but he can not reverse it. And no I do not think it is a strategic mistake to talk about this openly now. A growing sense of the inevitability of Trump's collapse is an important element helping drive Trump's inevitable collapse.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Fyrefox
(300 posts)I deeply and fervently hope that you are right. All bets tend to be off, however, when it comes to Trump supporters. They have claimed him as their own, and just as he's lied to them daily, so they lie to themselves, seeing Trump as they want him to be rather than as he really is. They are blind and endlessly resourceful in their defenses of him, and employ pretzel logic. Trump is seen as being the only solution to the violence and division that he himself has created! His word is gospel to them. Trump backers prove the adage that a fool will always find a greater fool to support him...
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Not only must Trump be defeated, but he must be crushed. No matter what he says or does, Trump will always have his 40%, the ones that you describe. And Biden has at least 45% locked in tight. The trick is making sure that Trump loses at least 7 out of ten of the remaining votes. He is helping to make sure that happens. Our job, as you correctly note, is to get out the vote!
Dyedinthewoolliberal
(15,566 posts)is about the fence sitters and the 'I don't vote crowd' . We have to find a way to get them to vote for Biden.
Le Roi de Pot
(744 posts)You have never heard of ...but trust me if you worship a Guitar God from the 70's or later .. He has heard of him.. and Can only play like Allan Holdsworth in their dreams.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)I admit I had not heard of Holdsworth, but now I have to check him out!
Midnight Writer
(21,745 posts)Eddie van Halen actually went to him to learn some new techniques, long after Eddie himself was declared a Guitar God.
Le Roi de Pot
(744 posts)He died with very little money and had to sell his guitars to pay rent.
He was just so uncompromising in his approach and record labels didnot know where to slot him.
SWBTATTReg
(22,112 posts)to 800K people who would see trump (a ridiculous number sprouted by trump campaigners) when he visited.
Instead, a mere 6,000 showed up instead, and the event turned into a super spreader for the Corona Virus that killed Herman Cain too.
IMHO, it's at this point where the cracks in the persistently high level of trump support first appeared. Perhaps too many tweets by rump finally is driving his numbers down, or the magnitude and sheer number of his lies finally caught up w/ his support, or he insulted
and drove voters away (the military, suburban housewives, etc., the list goes on).
I predict that rump will lose in a blowout.
And most predictions for a possible trump victory (Michael Moore for example) seem to favor the mysterious trump voter who hadn't voted yet by the millions (very doubtful, where are all of these missing voters?).
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)ananda
(28,858 posts)I like it.
erronis
(15,241 posts)I always picture Joe the Plumber from the 2008 campaign with the obligatory low-ridin' jeans on a big butt.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Joe the Pumber, his 15 minutes of fame didn't get renewed
cp
(6,623 posts)Still, we all have to work as never before to GET OUT THE VOTE. Nothing is certain, until it is.
volstork
(5,400 posts)The hard-core republicans stuck with him to the bitter end, but, following his resignation, he was widely considered to be among the most evil figures of the 20th century (at least until good ol' American Insomnia kicked in...).
(American Insomnia-- now THAT would make another good band name!)
Karadeniz
(22,506 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,128 posts)difficult to see where earthquake type shifts come from, but it's an election, it has potential volatility.
the thing is, if Trump goes for a risky move - war, martial law, lockdown, foreign advisors, instant vaccine - it's going to be seen for what it is. More than anything, Trump is short on credibility because the public is out of patience.
Hekate
(90,644 posts)SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Ty!
Roy Rolling
(6,911 posts)Last edited Tue Sep 8, 2020, 12:07 AM - Edit history (1)
Theres a Jimmy Stewart movie No Highway in the Sky tells the story of a metallurgist who calculates metal fatigue in an airplane.
It illustrates perfectly what your analogy is and I thought of it immediately.
Without revealing the ending, the reason for the metal breakage was the change of seasons, maybe just like now.
jaxexpat
(6,818 posts)And when the president calls on the military to put down the "Democrat" insurrection............And when the CIC calls on the military to put down the "Democrat" insurrection...And when POTUS calls on the military to put down the "Democrat" insurrection............
On Nov. 5th...
On Nov. 12th....
On Dec. 31.....
On Jan. 19th......
Who will answer that call?
On Jan. 20th at 12:01 PM.......
It may be prudent to observe the subterranean machinations of orgs such as "proud boys", etal over the next coming weeks/months. Is anyone or organization doing that? Will they tell us if they know there's going to be a problem? Would they help? Who would they help? How many of Trumps current cadre enjoy a "bunker mentality"? I'd say the bottle blonde clan spokesperson with the porn star eyelashes is maybe a little nervous about the "last man(or woman) standing" approach. Maybe apprehensive. And who'd bet against that Miller boy having a suicide plan to go out with a really "I'll-show-them" bang? WW3 wouldn't make a dent in the self absorbed attitude of the inner family circle, bored, waiting for when this gig is over and they can go somewhere else to play. And seriously, at this point who would be surprised at reports of Dolly Madison's ghost arm wrestling with Eleanor Roosevelt's in the Lincoln bedroom? Who-ya-gonna-call?
NNadir
(33,512 posts)Illumination
(2,458 posts)his hair implants! Michael Cohen said something about that in his new book...
mercuryblues
(14,530 posts)It worked fine, until it didn't.
Unbeknownst to us, the metal spring that connected the drum on the inside was very slowly wearing away the part it clipped into. Sure every now and again it would get off balance, increasing in frequency the weeks before it broke. I would stop it, rearrange the load and start it up again and it was fine for a few days. Lather rinse, repeat.
Then came the fateful day. I was folding clothes in the dryer when the washer made a loud banging noise. I mean loud. Then another and another. Then it groaned and stopped.
The spring broke loose with such force that it put a dent in the side. The drum fell on that side and became tilted, which pulled out the gasket around the door. One spring, wearing away at an interior part causing it to snap did so much damage that the cost to fix it was almost as expensive as a new one. So we bought a new one.
Vote to buy a new one.
kimbutgar
(21,130 posts)Everyday something new and evil comes out and hes freaking out and will implode before the election much like your metal fatigue.
Yep its coming and Ive got a bag of popcorn ready to pop to sit back and enjoy.
Kid Berwyn
(14,876 posts)Its tiring, tracking Drumpfs non-stop criminality, psycho-sadistic behaviors and sundry treasons.
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)I"m not letting up, though. Got yard signs. Donating. Writing a lot on various comment blogs. Talking to everyone.