If Maricopa County Sours on Trump, So Will Suburbs Everywhere
On Election Day, Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton was the big story. But Bowie also prevailed, narrowly beating his Republican opponent. At the time, everyone thought Trump’s election was a harbinger of where U.S. politics was headed, his hard-right nationalism having captured the GOP and vanquished a wheezing, broken-down Democratic Party. Today, however, it’s become clear that the forces that propelled Bowie’s victory in suburban Phoenix are the ones reshaping U.S. politics— in Arizona and across the country.
Nowhere is this transformation more apparent than in Maricopa County and its inner-ring suburbs around Phoenix that include Bowie’s district. Maricopa is one of the largest counties in the U.S. by both area and population: With 4.5 million residents, it’s more populous than 23 states. That gives it outsize political importance, because whoever wins the county usually wins the state. And because Arizona has emerged as a crucial battleground, it’s no exaggeration to say that control of the White House and U.S. Senate could both end up hinging on Maricopa County.
For anyone hoping to understand American politics in the Trump era, its significance goes even further. Maricopa is one of the most heavily suburban counties in the country, growing and diversifying at a more rapid clip than any almost anywhere else. The trends in Maricopa are being replicated in suburbs across the country, particularly in fast-growing, traditionally Republican metro areas such as Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, and Houston. In 2016, Trump won them narrowly. In 2018, Democrats made huge inroads, taking over the House of Representatives on the strength of suburban voters who ousted GOP incumbents. Now, in 2020, these suburbs have emerged as the new frontier of U.S. politics.
Four years ago, Trump carried Maricopa by 3 percentage points, and with it the state. This wasn’t surprising: Every Republican presidential candidate since 1948 has won the county. For years it was synonymous with its notorious anti-immigrant sheriff, Joe Arpaio, who detained migrants in an outdoor jail he called Tent City and eagerly endorsed Trump.
In hindsight, though, Trump’s victory, rather than pointing to the future, now looks like the last vestige of an era that may have already passed. Four years after Bowie won his Senate seat, the 18th district’s entire state-level delegation has morphed from red to blue. A similar change has swept through suburban districts all around Phoenix, as the moderate Republicans who once governed have become an endangered species. In 2016, Bowie won his race by 3 percentage points; in 2018, running against the same opponent, his margin grew to 14 points. This year he’s facing a new Republican challenger who’s posted slogans and videos on Twitter and Facebook touting QAnon, the lunatic conspiracy theory that claims Democrats are secretly harboring a satanic cult of pedophiles and cannibals.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-03/u-s-election-have-the-republicans-lost-the-suburbs-arizona-county-suggests-so
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