The 8 states where 2020 will be won or lost: A POLITICO deep dive

[brooklynite]

Politico

Minnesota’s Iron Range. Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties. Suburban Charlotte. The city of Philadelphia.

Each is a shorthand for the building blocks of victory in the swing states that will determine the presidential election.

At the traditional, post-Labor Day start of the fall campaign, POLITICO is zeroing in on eight critical battlegrounds where the 2020 election will be won or lost: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The selection of these swing states is based on a variety of factors — polling, demography, past and recent election history, voter registration, interviews with state and local party officials, strategists and pollsters. The individual campaigns have also revealed the places they are prioritizing through staffing, resource allocation, TV and radio advertising and candidate visits.

[beachbumbob]

1. Consider the outcome of 2018 and these experts need to reset what they

consider a battle ground state. No way Michigan or Arizona will be and Wisconsin is close to being out of reach. The real story are the "safe" redstates that Biden is making competitive. But hey the experts have to pretend the outcome will be close

[brooklynite]

2. Clinton thought Wisconsin and Michigan weren't in play.....

As for Arizona, it hasn't gone Democratic since 1996 and before that 1948.

[BannonsLiver]

4. 2016 blah blah blah

Breaking: This isn’t 2016 and Biden’s campaign is actually coherent and well run. And on AZ, so what?

[brooklynite]

6. So you believe that Arizona is a safe Democratic State?

[BannonsLiver]

7. Where did I say that?

The “so what” was in response to you stating AZ hasn’t gone blue in a long time, which isn’t exactly a revelation.

[brooklynite]

14. Your original complaint was that the POLITICO States weren't "battleground"

What's your issue with their discussion of Arizona?

[RhodeIslandOne]

13. It's not safe

But it's well on it's way to electing another Democrat for United States Senate. It's becoming Nevada or New Mexico faster than Texas is turning blue. I'm more confident we take Arizona this time than Florida or Wisconsin.

[beachbumbob]

17. I believe it very well can be for sure.

[RhodeIslandOne]

11. Let's pump the brakes though

A week before the 2016 election, there were people on here claiming Hillary was going to rack up 400 EVs.

We couldn't possibly fathom America was so stupid, so obsessed with celebrity, and so hateful towards a Clinton they'd flush the nation down the toilet.

Right now my only concern is Biden winning with the 2012 numbers while avoiding the Russian hack and mail ballot bozo Lou The Thug Dejerkoff. Whatever comes after that is gravy and a resounding rebuke to Dump and his racist legacy.

[frazzled]

3. Note that

Three of these states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—do not allow processing of mail-in votes to be begin until Election Day itself. Not counting, but processing: that means verifying each ballot's signature by matching it against records (often involving a committee made up of representatives from each party, sometimes at the precinct level but often in wider jurisdiction), removing ballots from envelopes (and then sometimes sorting for assigning to precincts), stacking for counting, feeding them through machines for counting.

Many states speed up the process by allowing this processing phase to begin weeks earlier, with tabulation of votes not occurring until Election Day. So in the most critical states (MI, PA, WI), this could take weeks to finalize. Be prepared for some nasty accusations and attempts to delegitimize the process.

Also note: another three swing states—Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—require mail-in ballots to be witnessed by a third party. If people do not read the directions and obtain such witness, their ballots won't be counted.

[KevinNE]

8. Only voter signature required in Minnesota

The witness signature was waived in MN due to the pandemic.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina allow eary processing n/t

[judeling]

12. So does Minnesota

this cycle 14 days before (normally 7) also allows FedX and UPS delivery and an agent can deliver upto 3 ballots but must provide ID and sign a statement.

Actually with the number of swing states that process early the Red Mirage worst case will mbe greatly mitigated.

[BlueWavePsych]

5. Texas and Georgia are within reach.

The more they spend defending those red states, the better.

[ananda]

10. My thought exactly!

I think the Trump campaign has already been overwhelmed
by having to defend swing states and being unable to do so.

They've run out of money, I read.

[RhodeIslandOne]

15. I remember when the polls closed in Georgia in 2016

The giddiness on MSNBC that the Trump campaign was going to be dealt a fatal blow at 7PM quickly became uneasiness when we couldn't close Virginia by 10PM.

Now Georgia is rigged anyway, and that was proven in 2018. Same goes for Florida.

[Amishman]

16. I disagree that Philadelphia itself is key for PA

It is more a matter of Scranton and the Lehigh Valley.

In 2016, Hillary won Philly and its suburbs by a margin of ~640k votes - more than President Obama won in 2012 and well above the level that experts predicted would be needed to keep the state blue.

Where she unexpectedly came up short were around Scranton and Wilkes Barre (5k D net win in 2012, 25k net loss in 2016).

Also the Lehigh Valley, for example Berks County. I live in NE Lancaster county, so I know and go into Berks a lot. The areas surrounding Reading have gotten very old and conservative - the lack of good jobs in the county resulting in a major brain drain of young people leaving. Berks went from a near tie (1,700 R edge in 2012) to firmly red (18,200 R advantage in 2016). This is a sizeable county, 440k people.

This pattern repeated in a lot of other similar counties. PA outside the cities is increasingly bright red. It used to be the cities were solid blue, the rural areas solid red, and the suburbs and exurbs purple. The suburbs are now light blue, but the exurbs have gone fully red.

The real battleground in PA is the suburbs and exurbs. There isn't much more we can realistically pull from the cities (especially Philly) than what we are getting now.