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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA Big Chunk of White Americans With Degrees And People Of Color Are Behind Trump
The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1) voters of color, who have long been Democratic-leaning, are a growing share of the electorate; 2) white voters with college degrees are increasingly shifting to the Democrats; and 3) white voters without degrees are aligning more with the GOP. But those trends, because they get so much focus, can warp our understanding of the electorate as it exists right now. Demographics are not yet destiny in American elections millions of people dont align with the party their race and ethnicity or education would predict. Case in point: In 2016, more than a third of President Trumps support nationally came from non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees (26 percent) and Asian, Black and Hispanic voters (12 percent), according to Pew Research Center data. On the flip side, about a quarter of Hillary Clintons supporters were non-Hispanic white Americans without degrees.
White Americans without degrees arent as likely to vote for Trump as in 2016, according to polls which partly explains why Biden leads in national polls and key swing states like Pennsylvania. But a big reason Trump could still win the Electoral College, despite the poor marks Americans give him for his handling of COVID-19 and his job performance overall, is that the Black, Hispanic and college-educated white voters who backed him in 2016 are largely still with him, particularly in key swing states.
In other words, while Trump is a radical departure from previous GOP candidates in terms of personal style and his frequent racist comments, voters havent radically changed their voting patterns amid his rise in U.S. politics the Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 (about 90 percent) and those backed who Trump in 2016 are overwhelmingly behind him in 2020 (about 94 percent).
That fact helps explain how Trump won in 2016 and why he might still come back in 2020. Heres a more detailed look at those three groups:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-big-chunk-of-white-americans-with-degrees-and-people-of-color-are-behind-trump/
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)Blacks are overwhelmingly voting against Trump and for Biden. They are not a part of a "big chunk" of Trump supporters.
And it appears that Bacon is lumping together all Hispanic voters and not differentiating between those who identify as white and those who consider themselves to be people of color. White Hispanics have long skewed conservative. But they shouldn't be counted as "people of color" unless that color is white.
If you have to cobble together every Hispanic and non-white group to get a number over 10%, you're pretty desperate for an angle.
This kind of twisted take is exactly what we don't need.
secondwind
(16,903 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)qwlauren35
(6,145 posts)Lumping all people of color together makes no sense to me. At all.
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)The whole analysis is a hot mess ...
secondwind
(16,903 posts)LizBeth
(9,952 posts)budkin
(6,699 posts)Eyes on the prize. Keep fighting and phone banking if you can!
LizBeth
(9,952 posts)That is all I am reading the last couple days. What makes you assume I need your scold?
budkin
(6,699 posts)Take care.
HipChick
(25,485 posts)ChazII
(6,203 posts)and Jamal who does the Mind of Jamal are African Americans that pop up on Facebook pages. Rocky Mountain Black Republicans are also on some of my friends pages.
11 Bravo
(23,926 posts)I'm stunned.
ariadne0614
(1,705 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)LisaL
(44,972 posts)Seems to be quite a bunch.
obamanut2012
(26,047 posts)not the first time, nor the first one, either.
Demsrule86
(68,504 posts)kurtcagle
(1,602 posts)From your comments, I take it he's biased?
Demsrule86
(68,504 posts)08 about Obama that made me so angry...I still remember it...I have posted a link. I don't trust the guy and tend to take anything that he writes with a grain of salt...but it is an opinion of course. Others may have a different viewpoint. Some of said he just likes to stir things up...I don't know but, not anyone I would listen to.
Some of his other articles.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/young-democrats-have-rejected-biden-and-it-could-cost-him-the-nomination/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-commitments-can-sanders-and-the-left-get-from-biden/
And this is an old article from 08 but one of the worst things I ever read...never forgot it...about Pres. Obama.
https://archives.cjr.org/campaign_desk/post_75.php
orwell
(7,769 posts)Владимир вас благодарит!
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)Американцы все делают сами.
qwlauren35
(6,145 posts)It's a legit article. It's a legit source.
BUT! There is so much to the premise that is wrong, that I'm going to take it as an anecdotal/opinion piece with sloppy statistics, written to make people wring their hands.
Don't let it get to you. As someone else said: do some phonebanking. It might cheer you up!
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)How long?
GeorgiaPeanut
(360 posts)This is a stupid article designed to drive traffic to 538.com
Demonaut
(8,914 posts)idiots