*A + Rated Marist Likely Voter Battleground Pennsylvania Poll* Biden 52% Klansman 43%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_PA-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009081145.pdf

[Johnny2X2X]

1. 52%!

The 52% is the big number here, that tells me this is not close. Coming back from 48-39 is possible but very hard, coming back from 46-37 is hard, but unlikely. But coming back from 52-43 is next to impossible, it means you have to sweep undecideds and then get hundreds of thousands of Joe supporters to leave Joe and vote for you.

Above 50% is where strategists start pulling out of a state. This is way different than Hillary leading 45-39 in PA at this time in 2016.

[Kingofalldems]

2. So if we win Pa. and say Michigan and Trumpwins every state he won in 2016

who wins the election?

[aeromanKC]

3. Need one more. (Literally!!)

Throw in Nebraska 2nd and its tied 269-269. Trump wins that scenario. We'll need one more such as Arizona or Wisconsin (Biden leading in both) Both would be nice that would give cushion to lose either New Hampshire or Minnesota which seems to be closest blue to reds.

But up big in PA and MI now is huge!!

[Statistical]

18. Trump would win in that scenario. Need an additional state like AZ, or WI.

Still PA + MI + one more state is the easiest route to a win.

There are a lot of states where Biden is up that likely will be close that could put him over the finish line if he takes PA & MI
AZ
NC
WI
OH
He probably won't win all four of those but he doesn't need to just one (plus PA & MI) is enough.

Also there may be an upset/longshot in FL or GA but lower chance of that.
So Clinton-2016 states + PA + MI + other state = most likely path to victory

If Biden only pulls PA or MI (but not both) it gets tougher as he would need to pull two of those states from the list above and some of them are likely off the table. Example it is unlikely OH is still in play if Biden loses PA.

If Bien pulls neither PA or MI well it is Hail Mary time. The Rust belt is lost so we need a longshot. Maybe FL & AZ? It is likely Trump has won the Presidency if he keeps PA, MI & WI although anything is possible.

[democrattotheend]

22. Biden can win without Wisconsin if he wins Arizona

That's assuming he holds Minnesota and New Hampshire. If he loses Minnesota and Wisconsin but wins Arizona, it's a 269-269 tie unless Biden can win back the second district in Maine or flip the second district in Nebraska.

[still_one]

4. More subsequent polls are needed to determine if this Pennsylvania poll is an outlier or not

It is a larger gap than other polls for Pennsylvania

[still_one]

6. Then we are on the same skeptical page regarding this specific poll

[still_one]

16. That is the bottom line

[BannonsLiver]

19. You seem mad about it

And it’s not 2016 anymore. Try to move into 2020.

[Demsrule86]

21. 2016 ...hmm you mean when we didn't have a pandemic, an economic debacle but did have a wonderful

candidate who had been destroyed by right wing attacks lobbed at her for 30 years? That 2016..hardly comparable. And he is losing in the suburbs.

'The Republican party candidate was Donald Trump, who won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6,000,000 cast, a difference of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election for the state in 176 years, since 1840 when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%.'

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Marist is an A+ rated poll. Scranton Joe Biden isn't Hillary Clinton. This isn't "muh 2016".

If you question the results you can hire a pollster and report the results he or she found to the rest of us.

[FakeNoose]

10. Yes I agree it's going to be close in Pennsylvania

... however I do think Biden will win Pennsylvania. I live in Pittsburgh and I haven't seen one Chump yard sign out in Pittsburgh. I mean, maybe a few but not enough to be noticed.

My sister lives in Westmoreland County (next to Allegheny and mostly suburban/exurban) and she has Chumpers around her. However a lot of her neighbors who displayed the Chump yard signs last time - are NOT putting out signs this time. My sister is seeing way fewer signs for Chump this year.

Long story short - a lot of people who went for Chump last time will NOT do it this time. In 2016 there were a lot of last-minute undecideds, and this year nobody is undecided. There won't be any "eeny-meeny-miney-moe" this year.

I really believe Biden is going to win this. The psychic people are predicting a Biden win also.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. O won the popular vote by 7 and PA by 10 in 08

[BlueWavePsych]

11. No longer Pennsyltucky ...

Biden got a big boost from suburban likely voters.

[Cosmocat]

17. YEP

agree - no way it is pushing double digits.

[democrattotheend]

23. Having just been to Western PA, I'm sad to say I agree

I was shocked how many Trump signs I saw. I know Marist is a good pollster, but I noticed they didn't weight on education, which a lot of pollsters have started doing after 2016, when white non-college voters were underrepresented in polls, due to either a lack of willingness to participate or higher than expected turnout.

[DeminPennswoods]

8. Fascinating info inside this poll

I was especially interested in the difference between registered Dems at 48% and self-identified Dems at 38%. It seems a great many registered Dems prefer to think of themselves as Independents.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Party ID does not equal Party Registration

-Harry Enten

[DeminPennswoods]

14. It was just interesting to me to see

how many registered Dems do not identify primarily as Dems. It's not surprising to me because lots of voters, especially where I am are still registered as Dems, but vote Republican and have never bothered to change their registration to match their party ID.

[democrattotheend]

24. PA is a closed primary state

So most independent voters register with one or the other party so they can participate in the primary. In a year with an incumbent president running for re-election with no serious primary challenger, the other party often gets a little bump in registration from independents who want to vote in their primary.

[DeminPennswoods]

25. I know, I live and vote here

nt

[BlueWavePsych]

15. "The Democratic ticket gets a boost from suburban voters in the key battleground state

who broke for Trump four years ago, a new NBC News/Marist poll finds."

The survey finds that Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, get the support of 53 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters, compared with 44 percent who back Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. In 2016, Trump barely bested Hillary Clinton in the state by less than 1 percentage point.

Forty-five percent of likely voters say they approve of the job the president is doing, while 52 percent disapprove. And just 44 percent have a favorable impression of Trump, while 54 percent have a negative one.

Among suburban likely voters, Biden leads Trump by nearly 20 points, 58 percent to 39 percent. That's a significant flip from 2016, when Trump won suburban voters in the state by about 8 points, according to exit polls.

Biden has a similar edge among independents, 57 percent to 35 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-leads-9-pennsylvania-n1239573

[onetexan]

20. I'm confident Biden will win his home state PA, no doubt.

PA is divided like the rest of the country is, no surprise there. But i do think suburban moms and independents will vote to put Biden on top