The "losers and suckers" comment has not lowered his approval

[edhopper]

by even 1 point. It is obvious the 42% is his floor. The people who support him will continue to support him, no matter what. We should not wait for an October surprise that will be his undoing, or another, worse revelation from a book or article. These people are obviously beyond any reason or rehabilitation.
What we must do is make sure that the 58% of the people that don't approve of him vote for Biden and that all the votes are counted.

[Beakybird]

1. Give it time. I think this will deteriorate his approval.

[Eyeball_Kid]

8. I suspect that you're right.

The losers/suckers disclosures are events that shift the emerging zeitgeist in a slow but pervasive manner. It changes the public’s frame of reference toward Trumpy-Boy. What’s for certain is that his base will not expand. It’s dead in the water.

[PatSeg]

17. I agree

It will take a little while for the remarks to affect his poll numbers, but I'm quite sure they will. I do believe there is a core base that will not budge, but they are more in the low thirties.

[Claustrum]

26. I agree that his core base is in the low thirties.

But the other 10% aren't going to be bothered by what he said. I think they are the ones that goes with Trump for the "economy". So unless the stock market (I know it isn't the economy but they think so) is down to 20k, they aren't leaving him.

In short, the 10% would leave him for the "economy" but not for what stupid thing Trump said.

[PatSeg]

29. Yes, that 10% are not

exactly deep thinkers and don't pay that much attention to current events. If their lives are fine, then why rock the boat? Among the 10%, however, there are bound to be those who will have active military or vets in their family, so they may be dissuaded by Trump's many crass remarks about the military.

Everyone, except for the deplorables have a line that cannot be crossed. Being Trump is an overachiever in that respect, he will cross that line before November 3rd.

[Stuart G]

55. Yes, I agree, low 30s, upper 20s. You will not believe why. Here is why...

That was Hitler's base in the early 30s that enabled him to take power. I think he got around 32percent of vote. Maybe a point or two off. You can check this out. Info is available somewhere.

[PatSeg]

56. Oh yes

That makes sense and rings true.

[ananda]

27. Agree.

The others are still shiftable to some degree, maybe
not much though.

[PatSeg]

30. Just give Trump a chance

He'll find a way to insult and alienate even them. Its like he can't help himself, he has to piss people off. I picture a little cartoon devil on his shoulder saying, "You think THAT was bad, watch this! I'm just getting started."

[ananda]

40. True dat. Lol

...

[Blue_true]

51. I agree that his hard base is in the low thirties and they won't change.

But 7-10% of his number is going to have a hard time justifying voting for him. His hard opposition is consistently 53% or above, that oppositions appears set in stone at this point.

I was concerned that Joe’s team was not getting him out into the country enough, but it now looks like they were saving up for the 60 day sprint. Joe was in Pittsburg yesterday and Michigan today. Hopefully he hits Florida, New Hampshire and North Carolina during the next two weeks. I really like how this is shaping up, Trump’s narcissism and hatred are weights around his ankles and Americans are getting to see Joe as the rational and sane adult that the country needs now more than ever. Even the vaccine surprise that Trump wanted likely will not come, he will try to force out a vaccine, but companies won’t go along if there is major risk with such an ill advised action.

[PatSeg]

57. Yes

Joe has some of the best political consultants in the country working on his campaign AND he is raking in the cash, while Trump is practically broke. Hard to believe Trump has spent close to a billion dollars already and all he has to show for it is the support of his hard core base. Shoot, he could have gotten that without spending a penny.

I agree that the contrast between sane, principled Biden to erratic, unhinged Trump is extremely effective. And the better Joe does, the more Trump goes off the rails. This is quite unlike anything anyone has ever seen in American politics. We are watching some powerful history in real time, much of it reading like a Tom Clancy novel.

[Blue_true]

59. Since I won't be alive 50 years from now given my current age, it would be interesting

to return to life for just a week to see how historians in the future wrote about these times and where Trump will be rated among Presidents (I expect dead last, even compared to Presidents that we have not seen yet and some people like me won’t see).

[PatSeg]

61. Oh yes, same here

It would be fascinating to see how this era is viewed from a historical perspective. Also would be interesting to see where we go from here in upcoming decades.

[Blue_true]

62. We will see the upcoming decades, for sure I hope.

I would have to live a decade past 100 to see 50 years. I may make that, but my guess is I won’t since the longest living person in my family lived to around 92 years old. I also don’t have a lot of long living people in my family, typically family longevity is a predictor of how long a given person will live.

[PatSeg]

64. I've been working on my family tree

for over twenty years and as such, I am very aware that I'm probably living on borrowed time, so I'm planning in years, not decades. Most of my goals tend to be short term and now I want to live long enough to see a new president sworn in.

[Iliyah]

2. I don't know about polls . . .

but in real life his approval is way down from 42%.

[PatSeg]

31. I think so as well

I honestly can't think of anyone I know who answers their phone when they don't recognize the caller. A whole segment of our society is not being polled.

[Claustrum]

3. I don't understand why people still think anything Trump say would lower his approval

We have more than 20 things he said that would sink other's campaign while his approval doesn't even move at all. Hell, even most of his actions don't lead to a drop.

[Iliyah]

7. As Steven Schmidt . . .

eloquently said recently, no matter what t-rump say and does will never derail him from his cult which consist of at least 30 - 35% of the American population.

[Blue_true]

52. There has long been a question about how many Americans are racists.

The Trump era gave us that answer, 35% tops, with the vast majority of White evangelicals being racists.

[uponit7771]

9. +1, messaging to his base about the real Trump has been horrible. They always twist anything in his

... favor

[Statistical]

16. Exactly. It isn't going down. Period.

I mean there may be statistical noise week to week but his approval has been cultishly solid in the way it has never been for any former President. People expecting "this one new thing" is the one that will sink Trump will be waiting forever.

The only good news is the deplorables make up only about ~40% of the country and they also don't vote in exceptionally high numbers. He can't win with them alone if the other 60% show up to vote in force. Trump is very beatable and hopefully this revelation (along with the 4897347329847389 other horrible things he has done in the past four years) energizes the ~60% who don't approve of him.

Trump will have at least 40% approval a month from now, a week before the election, the day of the election, and the day after the election regardless of who wins. God forbid he actually wins his approval will be roughly 40% for most of his next term. Remember roughly 40% means that roughly. A 1% move in a poll which has a 4% margin of error is statistical noise. Trump's approval rating will not change by any statistically significant amount (<36% or >44%).

Likely if someone cares enough to poll it 40% will still approve of him a year after he is out of office and five years after that. Trump voters aren't holding their noses to vote for Trump. They like what they got. Trump makes them feel powerful. Trump echos the fears they have (real or otherwise).

[Claustrum]

20. I agree with most of what you said except the last sentence

If Trump is toxic to a point that he makes republican losing big in the next 5 years. I think they will abandon Trump just like they did to Nixon. Or they would make him the new Reagan and worship him. I just don't know what scenario it would be because it will depend on how toxic republican becomes and if Trump's crimes get prosecuted.

For one, I am theoretically a moderate leaning right but I have been (since 2016) and will be a solid democratic voters for the next 10 years to send a message to republicans that Trump is not acceptable EVER. And any republicans that have supported Trump (Rubio for example) will never get my vote ever. The thought that I considered Rubio back in 2016 makes me sick right now.

[Demsrule86]

4. I have seen polls under 43%.

[ElementaryPenguin]

5. That sets off my bullshit detector. I don't believe it.

But if true - God help this country. 42% are fascist and/or insane.

[BKDem]

11. God help us. Even if it's not 42%, it's non-zero.

You have to be brain-dead racist/fascist scum to support this asshole, and apparently, America is home to lots of them.

[redstatebluegirl]

25. They have been brainwashed to hate all of us. So much so that they talk about

taking up arms against us. They are crazy cult members like Jim Jones followers, they have stopped thinking about anything other than "owning the libs and the elites". Critical thinking is not something they excel at.

My husband has one of their crazy offspring in his class this semester. He stopped after class and told my husband that he was an intellectual elite and he has no use for him. My husband went to the Dean and said he wanted this kid removed from his class and put in another section and he was. Why is he in college at all? He says he wants to be a doctor so he needs the class my husband teaches.

My husband never lets on what his politics are, he doesn't have any stickers on his car or anywhere at the university. He won't even go to rallies with me. How this kid decided he was a lefty tells you how nuts they all are. The funny thing is he was put into a section with a female professor who is as far left as they come and very in your face. There is some humor here.

[DonaldsRump]

6. Good heavens, people

Biden was ahead with military vote by 6% in mid-August according to Military Times. That is staggering for a D to be ahead (or even tied) with the armed forces, which always go with the R (I think).

Does anyone think the "losers" and "suckers" comments GOT the Idiot Infector-in-Chief (i.e., Trump) votes with the military?

[Silent3]

10. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't make much of a dent, but there hasn't been enough time...

...for polling to reflect that in either case.

And if it doesn't make a dent, it's only partially because some Trumpers don't care. Most simply won't believe Trump said those things. They are strongly hard-wired to scream "FAKE NEWS!!!" now at ANYTHING that reflects badly on Trump, even if Trump did it right in front of their faces.

[gristy]

19. Those cult members who might oppose his statement won't believe he said it.

Then there are the ones who agree with what he said. Then there are those who don't care. Those 3 groups add up to 43%.

[fescuerescue]

12. People rarely change their minds

The people that support Trump don't believe it.
The people that don't support Do.

What else is new?

[agingdem]

21. They believe it but they just don't care...

their devotion is about hate...he gives voice to their hate...he legitimized and normalized hate...they can brandish rifles, scream the N-word, march through streets chanting anti-semitic tropes with little or no consequences..so what if he denies them healthcare, disappears Social Security and Medicare and kills 190,000 Americans...he hates, they hate and they love him for it...

[fescuerescue]

22. And they rationalize their hatred

By claiming it's just party loyalty.

[BannonsLiver]

13. Why on earth would you ever think that would hurt him with his base?

It was never about hurting him with his base. It’s about hurting him with other voters, the ones he’d need to make a comeback. The story makes it harder for him to erase his current polling deficit to Biden. THATS why it matters.

Why are people so binary in their thinking about this. The “dumb” is palpable every time it comes up.

[LakeArenal]

28. Well there are dumb/uninformed "on both sides".

But I do think there are Cult supporters who are so far down his “rabbit”hole that they still sling the hate around visibly but are not going to vote. Or vote for him. Also, I believe there are cultwives that don’t dare tell their husbands for whom they are going to vote.

But as a group... forget them.

We need every vote that is not theirs.

[LiberalFighter]

14. His support is being sliced off. I question any poll that doesn't show it.

IMO there are key components that have changed in the last few elections that pollsters have not adjusted. If they keep using the same components they have used in the last 20 or 50 years their polls will be off.

[Baclava]

15. His cult will just blame 'fake news' with making up more lies and shrug off anything bad he said

[Johnny2X2X]

18. Chips away at it

People looking for some big dramatic drop are going to be looking for a long time, that's now politics today.

Losers and Suckers didn't drop his approval by 10 points because most of his supporters either don't care or don't believe it. What it did do that will not be reflected in his approval is is cemented a number of swing voters to Joe. So it makes Joe's support stronger, and it potentially swings a couple hundred thousands independents to him.

And what it does more than anything else is take up time. Less than 8 weeks left and all trump has left is the debates or an act of god to change the race.

[Quiet_Dem_Mom]

23. Gold Star family across the street, Trump flag still up

We live directly across the street from a Gold Star family. We saw the black SUV pull up to his house in 2005. We found out later, they had lost their son in Afghanistan.

The Trump flag went up a week or two before the Atlantic article about the loser/sucker comments. After the comments became public, we thought: surely, he'll take that stupid flag down? How could you support someone who made comments like that about dead military members?

Nope. Not only is that flag is still up, he also put out 2 tRump signs out in his front yard. Yes. TWO signs.

They've been great neighbors. The kind of people that are quick with a wave or hello or an offer to help. Nothing that would cause you to think "typical Trumpster."


Sadly, you're correct. Don't know whether it's a cult mentality or the fact that you choose party over country (and over your own son)...these people will never stop supporting him, no matter what vile and disgusting things he says or does.

[Efilroft Sul]

24. Many people are beyond the reach of reason. I have no use or sympathy for them.

[BannonsLiver]

33. You know the story really isn't about the cultists right?

It’s about soft Trump voters, people who voted for him last time but feel a little weird about it now. It’s about unaffiliated voters who might lean slightly one way or another but aren’t inherently ideological. It’s about low info types who only pay attention to big stories.

The damage done was never about his cultist supporters. It’s about hurting him with other voters he’d need to make a comeback.

It’s so odd to me that people view it as black and white. As if because it doesn’t convince the most devoted cult member to vote for Biden, it’s a nonstory. That’s just a really dumb, short sighted way of looking at it.

[edhopper]

43. Yes

but he has lost ANY support. So perhaps he is just down to the cultists who will never walk away.

[Baked Potato]

32. Trump and his ilk know military families are a smaller

and smaller demographic. Soon, they won’t care about the “military” at all.

[robbob]

34. Whenever I see the polls...

My first question is yes, but are they going to vote? It’s easy to give an opinion to a pollster on the phone, but getting off their fat asses and going to vote? That’s the real issue. Now, what I am hoping is that the outrage factor against tRump has gotten so high that it will drive a high turnout among those who perhaps stayed home in 2016. And maybe, just maybe, enough tRump supporters who are a bit lukewarm will decide they’ve had enough of the mayhem and madness and will chose to sit this one out.

We’ll see in a few short weeks...

[Yeehah]

35. Until the witness comes forward

it's just anonymous hearsay and, even though it's been validated by multiple journalists, trump bumpkins can dismiss it as "fake news."

[edhopper]

38. not even then

Cause the witness, even if it is Jesus Christ himself, would be a liar.

[ismnotwasm]

36. Hopefully this shocks no one

Yea, there are that many bigots, or racists or religious zealots or mean spirited, or the bitter, or one issue voters (guns, abortion) or just malinformed enough to make Trump, if not looking good, better than any other choice.

This was never going to change.

[TheFarseer]

37. Most likely

People just think it’s a smear and don’t believe it.

[GeorgeGist]

39. He's gotta lock ...

on the Losers and Suckers vote.

[kairos12]

41. I agree.

Character attacks do not work on Chump.

Focus on COVID and the economy.

Character attacks will make no dent on his base.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. You don't know that.

This is a woefully premature post. Polling out of a scandal is tricky, especially when it hits around a major holiday. It could be up to a week before it really starts hitting his numbers.

See: the Comey letter from 2016. That didn't hit Hillary's polling until a week after the news broke.

[edhopper]

44. I appreciate

your optimism

[Drunken Irishman]

48. Not optimism. Just premature.

It's possible nothing happens.

But these polls we're seeing don't have time to gauge the scandal.

[edhopper]

49. None of the scandals

have made a dent. Don't see this one doing anything either.

[Drunken Irishman]

50. Define 'dent'...

Because Trump is on pace to have the worst approval rating of any first-term president, collectively, ever. Yes, his approval has not dropped into W. Bush territory, but it's only marginally better than past one-termers like Carter and H.W. Bush.

The way the country is divided, I don't foresee a dramatic shift but it doesn't need to be a dramatic shift. Trump's current approval rating average according to 538 is 42.7%. My hope is that it drops to 40% and I'll take that as a win.

[edhopper]

54. his approval disapproval has been pretty consistent

His whole Presidency.
No scandal has changed that.
One hopes his low approval will end him.

[radius777]

45. It will help in the margins and w/swing voters.

America is polarized and there if very little 'play'. The bases are locked in and not moved by much.

But the way Hillary lost was due to Comey shifting the soft vote and late deciders, and stories like this will shift those voters towards Biden.

This story more than others is effective because it functions as a 'swiftboat' attack that hits at his perceived strength- he wraps himself in the flag and this undercuts that image.

[shrike3]

46. Did anyone really think it would?

I didn't.

[Awsi Dooger]

47. Too many always believed the nonsensical version that it would eventually drop to 30 or 35%

That group is still holding out for losers and suckers to plunge the rating, and then they'll hold out for Woodward to plunge the rating, and so forth.

The base is 40, not 30. As long as you accept that there is no way to be fooled.

[SharonClark]

58. His supporters don't believe anything negative

about him. At least that’s what I read in the comments on my Democratic Congresswoman’s Facebook page.

[former9thward]

60. Anonymous sources are never going to lower anything.

Would you believe anonymous sources about some comment against Biden?

[rockfordfile]

63. It does show for the rest of American patriots that he's a pos

The other right-wing is just as un-American.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

65. OH you poor dear! DU now doesn't allow whole truth or analysis. Haven't even read your

Thread but bet you are maligned.