Death of trade deal with China could be 'October surprise'

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2020/09/10/phase-one-deal-death-could-be-october-surprise-trade-china-trump-490274

On Tuesday, Danny Diaz, who ran former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s ill-fated 2016 presidential campaign, told POLITICO’s Tim Alberta that if there’s an “October surprise” in this election, “it’s something abroad. It’s a foreign policy-oriented development.” We asked the experts: if it’s China-related, what might it look like?

A Phase One trade deal collapse is the most likely China-related event to upend the U.S. election. Harvard Law School’s Mark Wu says President Donald Trump could declare China “off track in meeting the purchase commitments.” Eurasia Group’s Paul Triolo says Trump “has become progressively less interested in the trade deal,” while E14 Fund’s Calvin Chin says ditching the deal is the “easiest to pull off [with] good electoral bang for the buck.” The Bay Area Economic Council’s Sean Randolph tells China Watcher that “while this might look like a failure at one level, Trump could try to show that he's in control, tough on China, and looking out for U.S. interests.”

— The deal would be (bureaucratically) easy to unwind, according to Asia Society’s Wendy Cutler. “Legally, the agreement requires a 60-day advance notification period before withdrawal,” she tells China Watcher, “but as we’ve seen to date the legalities would be overshadowed by a surprise announcement.” Trump can get the electoral pop from an announcement his administration intends to leave, even if it’s not official until after the election.

U.S. and Chinese multinational companies could be frozen out. Heritage Foundation’s Klon Kitchen says China could block a TikTok sale and possibly remove “one or several industry leaders” among U.S. tech companies in China. Schmidt Futures’ Christopher Kirchhoff says Chinese ruler Xi Jinping could “move to ban Apple products in China.” Syracuse University’s Mary Lovely says a Trump move against WeChat could see Beijing retaliating against U.S. firms in China.

*snip*

[Claustrum]

1. But how does his own trade deal failure be a positive for him?

I know he drums up the Chinese hatred but it's still his own failure. I guess I shouldn't try to understand Trump logic because there is none.

[Nevilledog]

2. Right? He'll blame it on Biden.

[global1]

3. Wouldn't That Hurt Trump?...nt

[Nevilledog]

4. I would think so. Title is wonky.

[Claustrum]

6. But you don't announce the "October surprise" yourself if it's damaging to yourself.

There has to be some Trump logic that think this is good for them.

All I can come up with is that they've been drumming up the China virus hatred. So he wants the country to hate China with him. But it's still Trump's own failed trade deal.

[Nevilledog]

7. We are talking about trump here...must suspend all logic.

[Make7]

5. Trump: "... trade wars are good, and easy to win."

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/statuses/969525362580484098