Close to breaking GOP supermajorities, our new data shows where Kansas Dems can win
We'll start with a look at the House, where Democrats need to net just one seat to deprive Republicans of their supermajority. Kelly carried 64 of the 125 districts―a bare majority, despite her clear statewide win―while Kobach took 61. (Our numbers show one of those seats, HD-98, going for Kobach by a single vote.) Kelly won all 34 seats that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, plus an additional 30 Trump districts.
There are two Republicans in Clinton/Kelly districts, while another 21 represent Trump/Kelly constituencies. (The aforementioned Stephanie Clayton prevailed in a Clinton/Kelly district during her final race as a Republican last cycle, and she's running unopposed as a Democrat this time.) Nine Democrats, meanwhile, hold Trump/Kelly districts, but Team Blue doesn't represent any turf that Kobach carried.
We'll turn next to the Senate, where Democrats have to net three seats to be able to sustain Kelly's vetoes without any Republican support. Kelly carried 21 of the 40 seats, taking all seven Clinton districts and 14 Trump constituencies. The one Republican in a Clinton/Kelly seat is Majority Leader Jim Denning, who is retiring; SD-08, which is based in Overland Park in the Kansas City area, went from 47-46 Clinton to 57-36 Kelly. Nine Republicans and six Democrats are in Trump/Kelly seats, while once again, no Democrats represent Trump/Kobach constituencies.
Finally, we have a look at the state's four congressional districts. The 3rd District in the Kansas City area moved from 47-46 Clinton to 56-37 Kelly, and last cycle, Democrat Sharice Davids unseated Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder 54-44 here. The 2nd District in the Topeka area, meanwhile, went from 56-37 Trump to 51-41 Kelly. Republican Steve Watkins narrowly beat Democrat Paul Davis 48-47 in an open seat race in 2018, only to lose renomination last month to state Treasurer Jake LaTurner; Democrats are fielding Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/4/1974793/-Morning-Digest-Close-to-breaking-GOP-supermajorities-our-new-data-shows-where-Kansas-Dems-can-win
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