The Cook Political Report changes ratings of two states, Nevada and Florida

[still_one]

Nevada changes from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat

Florida changes from Lean Democratic to Toss up

This changes the electoral college ratings according to the Cook Model to the Democrats having 279 electoral college rating in the Solid, Likely and Lean Column, and no electoral votes needed in their toss up states.

Republicans have 187 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean
categories in the Cook model, and would need 72 (100%) electoral votes from the
Toss Up column plus 11 votes from the Lean Democrat column to win.

I am sure any effect from the Woodward book and tapes haven't worked there way into the polls yet, and it should be interesting what happens with Real Clear and 538 polls when they do, and if the Woodward book and tapes have any impact

According to Cook there are more Democrats registered in Nevada than republicans, so the get out the vote is critical in Nevada. Also, the Latino vote will be critical in Nevada.

Every registered voter in Nevada will receive an absentee ballot, and trump know that will benefit the Democrats, which is why republicans are working to block the entire vote by mail vote, along with trump going to twitter and calling the vote by mail illegal.

The problem in Florida is that Biden is underperforming with Latino voters compared to how Hillary was doing

According to Cook Florida is simply to close to call

This election is going to be very nerve racking, and I think it will come down to the wire

538 analysis favors Biden in their forcast

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[RandySF]

1. Florida IS too close to call.

It's a perennial basket case.

[still_one]

3. Isn't that the truth. I think if we can impress upon the older population in Florida that what

trump is doing is jeopardizing Social Security that would help us, and there is no doubt we must spend more time with Latinos why we are the better alternative

[jorgevlorgan]

5. Yeah its close because Biden is losing Latinos and winning Seniors

So yeah. If he can get to Clinton's numbers with Latinos that would be super helpful

[LakeVermilion]

11. With Trump's actions to kill Social Security,

Florida should be jumping on the Biden/Harris bandwagon!

[JI7]

2. But Biden is doing better with white voters which is why Florida is still close

[still_one]

4. That is interesting. Still we need to make more inroads with Latinos. I think Julian Castro was

saying that during the Convention, and that could put us over

If we capture Florida, it will be very difficult for trump to over come that I think

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Nevada and Florida had identical ideology numbers in 2016

36% conservatives and 25% liberals

That places both states slightly red of the national margin, which is a 9% gap.

Nevada is easily the most undependable of the states Hillary carried. Not Minnesota. There is no birthright whatsoever in Nevada. None of the fundamental numbers are great, including the educational numbers. That state is held together by a fantastic Clark County messaging and turnout machine.

But the fact that Hispanics love the incumbent should have made Democratic officials prioritize Nevada even more so this time. Instead it has somehow been in the taken for granted category like Michigan and Wisconsin 2016. I mentioned two years ago that I couldn't take any analysis of 2020 seriously if it didn't recognize that Trump was going to fare surprisingly well with Hispanics.

[DarthDem]

7. LOL at Their Nevada Change

Trump has no chance there. None. How ridiculously silly.

On the other hand, Florida is born to be a tossup. So they got that right anyway.

[msongs]

8. second largest ethnic group needs some dems love nt

[TheRealNorth]

9. Has Spanish-speaking mass media

like Univision, etc. gone the way of Fox and OAN?

[Awsi Dooger]

10. The Hispanic vote should never be assumed at 70-30 going forward

I am a huge believer in long term fundamentals and not short term trends. The African-American vote is legitimately a 90-10 category. I basically ignore suggestions that it will shift away from 90-10.

However, there is no reason the Hispanic split should be 70-30 range. It has no long term history in that neighborhood and there is nothing to suggest it will remain in that neighborhood. Democratic officials apparently became ignorant and lazy in assigning and assuming the 2008 through 2016 Hispanic distribution to 2020 and beyond.

[OnDoutside]

13. Of all Hispanic outreach, do the damn Florida based Puerto Ricans

which we are led to believe isn't being done on any great scale.

[Proximate Centurion]

12. Which is EXACTLY Why. . .

we have to be ruthless in our determination to vote. If obstacles are placed before us, knock them down if necessary!

[radius777]

14. Here is the link to the article

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-rating-changes-florida-and-nevada-shift-right

Ultimately I think NV will be in our column because (unlike FL) it is a Dem controlled state with full mail in voting that historically has a good GOTV operation. The Latinos there are also not ultra conservative like the Cubans but instead tend to be working class labor union types. Bernie won big in the primaries and maybe he can help with turning these voters out.

I understand the 'Latinos favor incumbency thing' but still wonder how an anti-Latino bigot (who puts kids in cages) like Trump could attract any of their votes. Also wonder why Biden seems to be having a much bigger issue with them than Hillary did. Whatever the reason he needs to reach out and message to them. Kamala could be deployed as she is a WoC with an immigrant background and has long worked with Latinos in CA, which are similar ideologically to those in NV and AZ.

[still_one]

15. +++