Who has accounted for governor's party and hackability of election into 538 probabilities?
The snake chart on 538 is great but when I look at the swing states (NC, FL, AZ, PA, WI, MN, NV, MI) we all know it will be influenced by the governor / board of elections and by the hackability / audit-ability of the election system.
Regardless of polls, Florida is in bad shape with desantis in office and in my opinion a high probability / history of manipulating electronic voting systems at the central tabulators.
Wisconsin on the other hand has Evers trying to proactively get absentee ballots out early while the Wisconsin Supreme Court fights against him.
North Carolina is in better shape with Roy Cooper as governor.
Georgia would be winnable but not with Kkkemp and his traitorous tactics for oppressing black voters not to mention a hidden ability to Rob Georgia since the Max Cleland days.
How do we stand with those critical questions? Seems to me the 538 projections (and others) pretend those factors don’t exist.
I know the shift between polls and outcome is weighed in somewhat, but 1) the flip of the governors house wouldn’t be reflected in it, and 2) if it took a 3% shift to win and ES&S delivered 3.5%, then ES&S can also deliver 5% to overcome a 4.5% gap, and with Trump in White House already and a conservative court, the plausibility factor won’t matter.
Not to mention the substitution of armed militias threatening Gretchen or others who might try to expose falsified precinct reports.
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