Biden's troubles with Black and Latino voters are overstated

[DemocratSinceBirth]

After the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton lost White voters by 15 points, it seemed as if Democrats might need to accept their losses and rely more on minority voters for their next majority. But the opposite has happened. In recent polls, Joe Biden has held President Trump to a single-digit margin with White voters, even managing to beat Trump with Whites in one CNN poll. At the same time, Biden has been underperforming Clinton with Black and Latino voters, causing some to worry that the party’s base is eroding.

Fortunately for Democrats, Biden’s numbers with non-White voters aren’t as bad as some have suggested. A quick look under the hood shows that Trump is mostly fiddling with the edges of his coalition, while Biden appears to be putting together a workable majority. Future Republicans could make serious gains with non-White voters, but Trump likely won’t.

For all the concern about his performance with non-White voters, Biden is still far ahead among both Black and Latino voters: Quinnipiac, the Economist, Navigator and CBS/YouGov show him leading by 72, 64, 85 and 74 percentage points, respectively, among Black voters, and those same pollsters put him ahead by 20, 34, 35 and 38 points among Hispanics, respectively. It’s true that he’s lagging Clinton in these areas, though. In 2016, she lost the election while winning the Black vote by 85 percentage points and the Latino vote by 38 points. And, according to Center for American Progress, Obama’s 2012 margins with these voters were larger, at 88 percentage points with African Americans and 39 points with Latinos.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/11/bidens-troubles-with-black-latino-voters-are-overstated/?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-f-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

[roman88]

1. I just want him and Harris to commit to a strong Black Agenda

Don't talk AT us, talk WITH us. Tell us what you will do for us as Black Americans whether it's about Police Brutality, Healthcare, Reparations, etc. Just talk with us and hear our demands.

[brush]

4. Don't just talk. Go to the Dem party web site and read the platform.

It's all there. And tell others who keep asking this without doing some research to go to the web site also.

[radius777]

9. It's up to Biden and Harris to reach out to these groups.

Many blacks, latinos and youth feel alienated and need to be messaged to directly. Many have been turned against Dems by propaganda on social media and we need to working to counteract this. We need people to come out and vote and can't take anyone for granted.

[brush]

10. And why do you think that's not happening. Harris was just in...

Last edited Fri Sep 11, 2020, 10:17 PM - Edit history (1)

Florida today in the Venezuelan community. It's a big country. Give them time to carry out their campaign agenda. Florida is a battleground state as is Pennsylvania where Biden has been recently. So is Wisconsin where both Harris and Biden have been recently, And Joe has been in Michigan in Detroit, a majority black city.

Give credit where credit is due.

[radius777]

21. Kamala's Miami event wasn't really covered on TV.

They have to make sure they do events where they speak outside without masks so it's clear, even for a few minutes, to give the networks soundbites that can be replayed over and over. This is what Trump does and it is effective. If you do an intimate sit down event like she did it's not something that gets covered. You need sound bites that revv up the base as well as message to groups we need to turn out. They also need to do events with key groups - not just generic 'meet business people' stuff, but meet with young people, BLM activists etc. Hillary did sit down and have several events with 'Mothers of the Movement' about police issues, and with Latino groups about immigration, etc. She did have to deal with difficult questions but that is necessary to connect with people who feel left out.

[LeftInTX]

23. Yep..my daughter got married in August

Officiant did not wear a mask, neither did the bride and groom. (Social distancing was observed in the church however)

You can speak and have social distancing. It can be done.

I'm getting cursed by Mexican-American in laws for not spending time with my granddaughter due to concerns about COVID 19. They are calling me "bad". The community is not very keen on masks and social distancing. My daughter's wedding reception was a raucous affair. (I put myself in 2 weeks quarantine afterward.)

My daughter is the Mexican American. She married someone from the Thurmond family..yeah that Thurmond. The Thurmonds were very reserved and wore their masks and kept social distance. They did not drink or dance much. Our side, the Democratic side, was the bad side. (I can't help but wonder what these conservatives from the South were thinking of us...LOL. The wedding party handed out Halloween Costumes and there was an open bar and an open bowling alley etc)

[radius777]

24. Such an important point - we can't overdo it with the masks and isolation.

Follow guidelines of course, but we don't want to give off the impression that we're overly scared and cautious and will wrap society up in bubble wrap.

We easily can do events outside with proper ventilation and distancing, and have the masks (to show responsibility) but remove while speaking.

Otherwise Trump will have all of the clear/strong soundbites and we sound muffled and afraid, and networks don't cover boring events.

[roman88]

19. 100% what they should do.

I am well aware of some of thier platforms in regards to our community, but I want Biden / Harris to be more proactive these next few weeks with Black Americans and keep the dialogue flowing.

[brush]

28. See post 10. They're going to black and brown communities all the time.

[Demsrule86]

13. I often wonder why no one ever makes demands of Republicans...if you think Trump would

be better....well than I don't know what to say. I think one of the reasons Trump allowed the Virus to ravage this country is he thought it affected people of color more than others. Joe and Kamala have a great agenda for everyone.

[Caliman73]

26. There is no point in making demands of Republicans.

They do not like minorities, and would only use us for a vote.

There are conservatives and progressives in every racial and ethnic group, and there are issues which affect specific groups to the extent that they will vote with the party that offers the most support on an issue.

If people who have felt left out on the margins are asking for specific recognition of a particular issue, it is better to listen and address it than to say... If you think the other party is better... That just seems like people are saying STFU and just give us your vote.

There is no doubt that Democrats are better than Republicans on every issue, but that doesn't mean that different advocacy groups shouldn't raise their voices and make demands.

[qwlauren35]

14. Here's one...

Strengthen America’s Commitment to Justice.

Our criminal justice system cannot be just unless we root out the racial, gender, and income-based disparities in the system. Joe will create a $20 billion competitive grant program to spur states to focus on prevention and reduce incarcerated populations, inspired by a Brennan Center proposal. He will expand and use the power of the Justice Department, under authority created by legislation he authored, to address systemic misconduct in police departments and prosecutors’ offices. Joe will also invest in public defenders’ offices, eliminate the death penalty and mandatory minimums, and end the federal crack and powder cocaine disparity. He will decriminalize the use of cannabis and automatically expunge all cannabis use convictions, end incarceration for drug use alone, and expand effective alternatives to detention. He will end cash bail and private prisons. Joe will invest $1 billion per year in juvenile justice reform. He will also set a goal of ensuring 100% of formerly incarcerated individuals have housing upon reentry and expand access to mental health and substance use disorder treatment, as well as educational opportunities and job training during and after incarceration.

[qwlauren35]

18. Roman88

If you go to the African American forum, you can see a transcript of Kamala's talk with the Miami Gardens community leaders. They put out their needs, and she responded with what she and Joe can bring to the table. It is unfortunate that there was no back and forth, to indicate whether what they were offering would meet needs or not. But that's not how a town hall works.

Please read the transcript and see what she has to say.

Bloomberg is giving millions of dollars to medical students at HBCUs. Increasing the number of black doctors will help with making sure we get the care we deserve.

When it comes to criminal justice, we have a hard battle ahead of us because of all of the conservative judges that Trump just put in place. But we shall see.

I did not see anything about police brutality on Joe's website. And that is sad. It should be there.

So, it's not complete. They aren't saying what they are going to do about it.

Reparations is not on the table.

[NurseJackie]

2. I figured as much.

So much concern and hand wringing... disguised as "valid" criticism.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Thx for posting...I've seen a couple these kinds of negative posts

Okay, so Biden isn’t fairing quite as well with AA and Latino voters as Clinton or Obama, but the percentages here showing Biden’s lead is really good.

He also fairs way better with white male non college voters than Clinton or Obama

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. If Trump ends up with 9% of the African American vote it will

If Trump ends up with 9% of the African American vote it will tie for the worst showing by a Republican presidential candidate in history, save the 2008 and 2012 elections.

[FM123]

6. Yes!

So, this is just getting on my nerves......
Not you dear DemocratSinceBirth, the botty concern trolls that seem to want to post daily threads about how Biden just sucks at getting support from Black and Latino voters, sigh.......

[Claustrum]

7. the point is to keep talking a non-problem so the seed is spread to the people to make it a problem

That's how they drive public sentiments. Much like Hillary's email or her "un-likability". It's talked so much that a lot of people think it's true but no one can truly point out why.

[FM123]

8. Yes, that is it exactly.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Blacks yes, Hispanics no

The African-American split is fear mongered every cycle. There is never anything to it, other than a point or few. It is simply difficult for the surveys to capture 90-10

It's not a Biden problem with Hispanics. He's done nothing wrong. Those 4 articles I posted earlier today in a different thread regarding Trump gaining support among Hispanics were all from 2019, long before Biden became the nominee.

I don't care about polls. I've followed this long enough to understand and anticipate situational trends. Long before any of those 2019 articles I was posting that Trump would gain among Hispanics for two reasons:

* Hispanics love presidential incumbents
* The GOP split of the Hispanic vote had become so unusually low it basically could move in one direction only

Now it's just a matter of how much spillage there will be. Any Hispanic shift can be pivotal given expected close margins in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and potentially Texas. Also, North Carolina has a rapidly growing Hispanic share of the electorate. That state has the lowest median Hispanic age (25) of any state with more than 1 million Hispanics. That means more and more will become registered and involved. The North Carolina Hispanic share of the electorate is expected to take a big jump this year, perhaps to 7-8% instead of 5% in 2016. If Biden squeezes out a win in North Carolina like Obama 2008 it is going to require young Hispanics shoving him across the wire. I have no idea why we take this block for granted and have been so tardy with the messaging.

I like all year emphasis. Cram sessions don't impress me in the slightest. The problem with everything we do regarding the Hispanic vote is that it's always scrambling to figure things out in the final 60 days.

[qwlauren35]

15. Joe's Website

is VERY weak on how he will benefit the Latino community.

I am surprised. For example, I thought it would be bilingual.

[JI7]

16. There ones considering Trump aren't voting on issues

[LeftInTX]

20. At least Biden admitted how difficult the Demographic is!

It's extremely diverse.

This is gonna sound a bit weird, but Latinos and Whites marry each other and no one bats an eye. I think of it like the Italians, except with indigenous heritage, but it isn't 100% indigenous and many don't embrace that heritage because it is long ago and pretty much an unknown. My husband's DNA is 50%, but he has no idea where it "comes from", besides Mexico. South Texas and NE Mexico Native Americans were bands of hunter/gatherers, which really didn't rebel against the Spanish. In San Antonio, Apaches and Comanches started coming south (with horses and weapons) and this scared the local indigenous into seeking shelter in the missions. The locals really weren't a match for the Apaches. So, they assimilated into mission life, coming and going and were given small plots of land if they "graduated" from the mission program. Once on their own, they became Tejanos. Tejano Alamo Battle descendants received large land grants. (Descendants are millionaires due to the large land grant and oil on the land) Also in the Rio Grande Valley many received land grants for various reasons...You see where I'm going with this.....

I'm pretty sure a similar situation existed in Mexico. My husband descends from the Coronado Expedition. Someone with his surname married a Native American. This was pretty much how it went with all these sailors..LOL They did not bring women with them, so they married and kids were Mestizo, then Castizo, then probably married Native American again after 1810.

Don't even get me started on changes since the Mexican Revolution (1910-20) and WWII

[marmar]

12. The usual pre-election rush of "concern" .....

.... obvious and predictable.

[liskddksil]

27. Well the "concern trolls" who saw glaring red-flags about Clinton's campaign were right in 2016.

In the months leading up to election day 2016, they were belittled by many of the same posters who haven't learned their lessons to this day. Politics is not for the faint of heart. Posts that point out disagreements about campaign strategies or citing poll numbers or articles that are less than favorable at the moment should be evaluated critically and not met with pithy "thanks for you concern" jabs that do nothing but divide rather than foster constructive debate - the whole purpose of a discussion board like this.

[radius777]

22. We're not messaging properly to Latinos.

They're not a culturally similar block like black or white Americans are, but are ethnically diverse and are typically concerned not only with their communities in America but also how our foreign policy relates to their home countries.

We can do better with Cubans and Venezuelans if we take a tougher stance on Castro and Maduro, and offer TPS to those individuals fleeing persecution. We need to explain that Dems stand for 1st world social democracy which is not the same thing as 3rd world socialism despite GOP scare tactics. There are rightwing Cubans who we'll never get, but others simply vote on this issue alone and want to see the Dems speak to it.

Florida: Deep-Dive on the Cuban Vote
2. Democrats have room to grow (and can’t afford not to)

Biden doesn’t need to win the Cuban vote, but the electoral math requires him to compete for increased support. Tens of thousands of votes are on the line in a state always decided by narrow margins. There is, after all, a big difference between finishing at 29% (where Dems were in late 2019), 35% (Obama’s 2008 number) or 41% (Clinton’s likely 2016 performance).

Again, at current Cuban support levels, Biden starts behind Clinton’s final overall margin in Florida.
Still, we estimate that up to 46% of Cuban-American voters in Florida are “gettable” for Joe Biden — this includes those who said they would vote for a Democrat, or are undecided, but also some voters who say they will vote for Trump but are negative toward Trump (or warm toward Democrats) on other measures.
Two audiences emerge as critical in growing Democrats’ vote:

1. US-Born Cuban-Americans. To find the Democratic base, you have to look at Cuban-Americans born in the US: in November they were -11 on Trump job approval and favored a Democratic nominee by a +7 margin. They also now outnumber the pre-1980 arrivals (aka the historic exile). To repeat: the electorate now includes more Cuban-American voters born in the United States than Cuban voters who arrived during the 50s-70s, even though the latter dominate the popular imagination. Democratic success in Florida starts with maximizing turnout and support in this cohort.
2. Cuban voters arrived in the 90s onward. For this cohort, we turn to a new section, because….

Puerto Ricans lean Dem but it requires that we message to them and get them to turn out.

Mexican-Americans have their own concerns and do tend to be more populist and pro-labor oriented, although some are culturally conservative. But as a group they are much more Dem than Cubans.

Alot of voters basically are sick of the standard Dem/Repub platforms and like hearing new things, and that is part of Trump and Bernie's appeal. We have to step out of the box and offer things directly to groups, not just a generic platform.

[unitedwethrive]

25. I'm Latina, from a large extended family...

and although we have all been in this country for several generations, not a single one of my many relatives can forgive MF45 for locking up little brown children and families at the border. That is foremost in our minds, but digging deeper we also have not forgotten all of the racist remarks against our people from the first day of his last campaign to the present, as well as deporting so many when they clearly were contributing to society and most left family here who were citizens and qualified to be sponsors. His active hatred of Puerto Ricans is just another inciting fact that shows his true colors.

I honestly do not know a Latinx person who will vote for that orange, slimy, sniffling ass.

[LeftInTX]

29. I know too many! Including my next door neighbors