CA-50 moves from 'Solid' to 'Likely' Republican
Last edited Sun Sep 13, 2020, 01:55 AM - Edit history (1)
For House Republicans, problems keep popping up in surprising places. For years, Inland San Diego County's 50th CD has been one of the reddest in the state, and when convicted former Rep. Duncan Hunter resigned, former neighboring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa saw it as a convenient place to launch a comeback bid. But a new SurveyUSA poll has Issa leading Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar by just 46 percent to 45 percent.
Issa, a car alarm magnate with a reported net worth of over $280 million, self-financed $5.7 million of his March primary campaign and could easily spend more to put the fall race away. But much as in 2016 when he came within a point of blowing reelection in the coastal 49th CD (in 2018, he saw the blue wave coming and didn't seek reelection), he's still dark on San Diego's airwaves with less than eight weeks to go before the election.
This race is still a serious "reach" for Democrats. Campa-Najjar, a 31-year-old former Labor Department official, ran against Hunter in 2018 and lost 48 percent to 52 percent, despite Hunter's active indictment for spending $250,000 in campaign funds on personal escapades - and a terrific Democratic year. At the same time, Republican John Cox carried the district over Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom 59 percent to 41 percent.
But Republican strength is rapidly vanishing in California, and there's some uncertainty about the district's baseline partisanship today. President Trump carried the 50th CD by a healthy 55 percent to 40 percent margin in 2016. The SurveyUSA poll, taken for the San Diego Union Tribune, showed Joe Biden leading 48 percent to 45 percent. It's possible San Diego's suburbs are starting to behave more like Orange County's.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/california-house/rating-change-issas-comeback-bid-gets-more-complicated-ca-50
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